Shawn Mesaros’ Post

China's population has reached its peak, indicating that we are at the beginning of a demographic turning point, after which the population will begin to decline. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs data suggest that from a total population of 1.42 billion people in 2022, a gradual decline is anticipated through the remainder of the century. China's population is anticipated to decline to 1.31 billion by 2050, 1.08 billion by 2070, and end the century at about 766 million, that is about 658 million souls fewer than at present. Similar to advanced economies, a decline after the peak indicates an ageing population with a lower birth rate, which typically leads to a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on pension and healthcare systems. This trend should eventually require adjustments in policy, such as immigration policy, retirement age, and family planning regulations, to manage the implications of an ageing population. Meanwhile, a decreasing population, particularly of the working-age group, could pose challenges in sustaining economic growth and may necessitate a shift towards productivity improvements and automation – a trend we may already be witnessing with post-zero-COVID Chinese policies primarily aimed at boosting consumption and the services sector, not necessarily accompanied by fiscal stimulus through mass infrastructure spending. This in turn could affect China's prowess as a demand growth engine for #drybulk shipping fundamentally as this century unfolds.

As of the end of 2022, China had more than 280 million people aged above 60, roughly 20% of the total population. Recognizing the potential within this demographic shift, China has committed to fostering a "silver economy." This strategic endeavor will significantly address the needs of the aging population and inject new impetus into the economy. #InvestinChina #IndustrialTrends https://brnw.ch/21wGj7H

These three opening paragraphs from my colleagues tell you a lot about what you need to know about China -- past, present and future. "When China launched its one-child policy more than four decades ago, it sped up an evolution toward smaller family sizes that would have happened more gradually. The policy supercharged the country’s workforce: By caring for fewer children, young people could be more productive and put aside more money. For years, just as China was opening its economy, the share of working-age Chinese grew faster than the parts of the population that didn’t work. That was a big factor in China’s economic miracle. There was a price and China is now paying it. Limiting births then means fewer workers now, and fewer women to give birth. A United Nations forecast published Thursday shows how quickly China is aging, a demographic crunch that the U.N. predicts will cut China’s population by more than half by the end of the century." https://lnkd.in/dE_CSSu5

Did you know that the Hu Line in China is facing a significant population decline Once a thriving region, the Hu Line is now grappling with a severe demographic crisis. This trend has far-reaching implications for the local economy, workforce, and community. As professionals, it's crucial to understand the underlying factors driving this shift and explore innovative solutions to address the challenges that come with an aging population. #HuLine #PopulationDecline #SustainableGrowth #china

🚨 China's Inflection Point: Demographics, Economy, and Policy 🚨** 1. **Slowing Economic Growth 📉** - China's GDP growth in 2023 was only 5.2%, the slowest pace since 1990 excluding pandemic years. - This slowdown reflects weakened consumer confidence and a collapsing property sector despite lifted COVID-19 restrictions. 2. **Demographic Challenges 🧓👶** - China's population is rapidly aging, with fewer than 10 million babies born in 2022, down from 16 million in 2012. - Projections suggest a steep decline to around half a billion by 2100, intensifying pressure on healthcare and social security systems. 3. **Government Responses and Social Resistance 🚫💡** - Despite incentives and pressure for increased childbirth, many women are resisting, citing personal freedom and economic concerns. - The government faces the dual challenge of stimulating economic growth and managing societal changes amidst these demographic shifts. For the United States, China's evolving landscape presents opportunities to strengthen and diversify global supply chains, and to reshore some manufacturing sectors. This strategic realignment could bolster economic resilience for the United Sates and reduce dependency on single-source markets, like China. #finance #economy #economicdevelopment #China #realestate

🌐 China at a Crossroads: Recent statistics from Reuters reveal a concerning trend as the nation's population continues to decline. In 2023 alone, China lost 3.1 million people, with a birth rate of 0.88 comparable to less prosperous nations like South Korea. 😢 A pivotal moment for the country, China grapples with the consequences of its success in elevating the standard of living throughout the 21st century. The paradox emerges as increased prosperity correlates with a decline in birth rates, reflecting a shift towards a more self-focused lifestyle. 📈 As China navigates this demographic challenge, the nation must find a balance between addressing the needs of the growing poorer population and understanding the aspirations of those embracing a child-free lifestyle. A new chapter unfolds, urging thoughtful strategies to sustain the delicate equilibrium between progress and population dynamics. #China #DemographicShifts #PopulationTrends 🌍

As a strong advocate for equity, diversity & inclusion in all its forms, I know that true diversity gives us strength, versatility and agility. My feed today seems all about age diversity! Here we have a few words from Michael Lam, BSI's Assurance Managing Director in AsiaPacific #BSI #Notyourstandardcareer #equitydiversityinclusion

China appears to be restructuring how state capital and regulatory resources are allocated at a striking pace to prioritize growth and sustain future global dominance instead of falling into the demographic trap set by its declining population.

“When China launched its one-child policy more than four decades ago, it sped up an evolution toward smaller family sizes that would have happened more gradually. The policy supercharged the country’s workforce: By caring for fewer children, young people could be more productive and put aside more money. For years, just as China was opening its economy, the share of working-age Chinese grew faster than the parts of the population that didn’t work. That was a big factor in China’s economic miracle. There was a price and China is now paying it. Limiting births then means fewer workers now, and fewer women to give birth. A United Nations forecast published Thursday shows how quickly China is aging, a demographic crunch that the U.N. predicts will cut China’s population by more than half by the end of the century.”

#unpopularOpinion? *Comparing Economic and Social Mobility in China and the United States* *Prompt:* Compare economic and social mobility between China and the United States. *AI Response:* Economic and social mobility in China and the United States have distinct differences and similarities. *Economic Mobility:* - *China:* Rapid economic growth has led to increased mobility, with an estimated 500 million people moving out of poverty since 1990. - *United States:* Stagnant wages and income inequality have led to decreased mobility, with fewer people earning more than their parents. *Social Mobility:* - *China:* Limited social mobility due to factors like the hukou system, which restricts access to education and social services. - *United States:* Traditionally seen as a land of opportunity, but data suggests decreasing social mobility. *Key Differences:* - *Government Policies:* China's government has implemented policies to reduce poverty and increase access to education, while the US has seen a decline in government support for social mobility. - *Economic Systems:* China's state-driven economy has led to rapid growth, while the US's market-driven economy has led to income inequality. *Similarities:* - *Income Inequality:* Both countries struggle with income inequality, which impacts social mobility. - *Regional Disparities:* Both countries have regional disparities in economic and social mobility. #EconomicMobility #SocialMobility #ChinaVsUSA #IncomeInequality #RegionalDisparities #GovernmentPolicies #EconomicSystems