SiiLA’s Post

The Banco de México expects the national economy to maintain its stamina, supported by solid #investment, a robust labor market, and a #deflationary process thanks to cautious monetary policy. This scenario suggests significant #opportunities for the real estate market, driven by supply chain #relocation and investment in #construction. 🇲🇽💼🏗️📈 Read more 👉 https://lnkd.in/d3cmwAit #realestate #CRE #SiiLA #Mexico

China's "real estate economy" is still over USD 4 trillion, the size of a Japan. Assuming another 5% decline annually, that's a USD 200 billion hole to be filled each year. Consumption or investment alone cannot and will not be the real solution. They are both tied to real estate - the very problem we try to solve. Our best hope is the USD 2.5 trillion "advanced manufacturing export" sector, consumer electronics, home appliances, auto and auto parts, heavy machinery, medical electronics, solar equipment and even semiconductors. I think they stand a chance of make up for the loss from real estate. A two-part series below. https://lnkd.in/gXrM9B-8

My friend Qi Wang, CFA makes some excellent points in this article. I've been assuming that domestic consumption is likely to fill the gap created by China’s struggling real estate market but, as he says, the two are inherently linked. As he argues: "Advanced manufacturing and exports will be the ultimate solution. It’s a USD 2.5 trillion industry, and could consistently create USD 200 billion of incremental value to the Chinese economy each year....China's share of global exports reached 17% in 2020, which is a record for not only China but also any other countries in history. Since then, China continues to dominate the world in exports, despite the US sanctions, geopolitical risks, supply chain shocks and an unstable global economy". Its well worth reading his analysis.

How Xi Jinping Led China’s Economy Astray It’s impossible to measure the Chinese leader’s popularity, but slumping property prices and high youth unemployment are enough to make many unhappy. By Shuli Ren and Elaine He October 30, 2023 at 9:00 PM GMT+5:30 From reining in the property market to a big tech crackdown, Chinese President Xi Jinping has left his mark on the economy. While some may call him an anti-capitalist ideologue, he’s got his own rationale: Unless he shakes things up, China’s economy will probably fall off a cliff. As he tries to right the ship, though, he has also brought risks onto himself, destabilizing a sprawling bureaucracy and sowing popular discontent. Wrong Direction Among Xi’s signature policies, the most significant has been his crackdown on the housing sector, which kick-started in late 2020 with tighter scrutiny over the debt of developers. In the last two years, existing home prices in more than half of tier-2 and tier-3 cities have fallen by at least 15% from their peak.

Ramifications of the contracting Chinese economy. “Real estate has for years been a popular investment for people in China, and the slowdown in the sector has had widespread ramifications. Consumer confidence is near its lowest level in more than three decades, according to a government survey. The economy is suffering from deflation, slowing exports and subdued investment by private businesses,” the WSJ observed. "Many look at the RE as the least reliable investment. And it poses an enormous challenge to the Chinese government" https://lnkd.in/gxGmr3nt

While the outlook for the Italian economy remains uncertain, short-term inflation is following projections and there is cautious optimism that 2024 will bring increased stability. In this focus on Italy we explore the challenges for the real estate market. Find out more: https://bit.ly/3URE4ZB #dwf #italy #realestate #insights

🌎 Economic and Social Evolution: Perspectives from Mexico and the U.S. 🌎 🔨 Mexico faces a slowdown across its three main economic sectors, though construction shines thanks to government investments in significant projects like the Maya Train. Despite a drop in automotive exports, employment remains strong, showcasing a resilient labor market. 🏠 In the U.S., rising interest rates have notably impacted the real estate market, driving up mortgage costs and altering home buying and building dynamics. Despite higher rates, the market stays active, influenced by new work trends and housing preferences. 💼 The U.S. fiscal deficit remains a concern, with projections indicating an increase in debt relative to GDP. This scenario suggests future challenges in public debt management and monetary policies. 📊 On the brighter side, Mexico's mood balance shows a general improvement in well-being, according to INEGI studies, though significant differences persist in perceptions of security and satisfaction by gender. 🏭 The Mexican manufacturing industry shows positive signs, with an increase in business expectations and a notable improvement in orders and production, especially in key subsectors.

Real estate's share of Chinese GDP could drop four percentage points, help drive consumption: Zhu Min A leading Chinese economist has hailed the declining role of the real estate sector in China's national output as a positive development. Zhu Min (朱民), vice-chair of the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges and a board member of the World Economic Forum (WEF), said that real estate consumption currently accounted for around 16% of China's GDP, for the highest level globally. Zhu expects that the figure could soon fall to 12%, which could be more in line with Western economies and "good news" for the Chinese economy given its implications for other forms of consumption. "At present, spending by Chinese households on real estate is falling, and the Chinese government hopes to make it possible for some young people and young couples to no longer need to buy homes via the provision of cheap long-term rental apartments," Zhu said. "Rental housing can markedly reduce residential housing costs, and a reduction in residential housing costs can unleash greater consumer potential." Zhu made the remarks at the 2024 Davos Summer Forum held in the northeastern Chinese city of Dalian. 

Discover the future of industrial real estate in Canada! 🚀 Swipe right to explore the booming trends of Canadian #IndustrialRealEstate in 2024, from innovative warehousing to the integration of retail and industrial spaces. Dive into the potential of this dynamic market and see why investors are getting excited. Dmytro Chernysh Alex Kwong Smit Kamdar Harsimran Kaur #FocusedIndustrial #Blog #RealEstateBlog #2024Trends #RealEstateTrends #IndustrialLand #RealEstate #Investors #MarketInsights #IndustrialReport Royal LePage Westside Klein Group

Luxury Real Estate in México will benefit from the growth of investment in our country. Investment bankers are doubling down in Mexico. Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. all predict investment banking revenue from Mexico will jump this year. Banco Santander SA, the top local bond underwriter last year, will invest $1.5 billion to beef up technology for retail clients. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said his bank has “doubled or tripled” capital in the country over the past six years and sees a “great” outlook for growth. Mexico is having a moment, with the potential to benefit for decades to come from a Covid-era nearshoring boom that’s bringing new factories making everything from laptops to cars. Wages are up and jobs are abundant, especially in the industrial heartland. Foreign direct investment helped make the peso one of the world’s best performers in 2023. Government finances are stronger than in other developing nations — debt relative to the size of the economy is well below the average for countries that share its credit rating — and business executives are guardedly optimistic about the top candidates for June’s presidential ballot.