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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 Excerpts: "FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver introduced his new presidential election forecast with an almost 5,000-word essay on the state of the race between President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump." "𝗧𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗼𝗻𝗮, 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗮, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗡𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗱𝗮, 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝘄𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬, 𝗕𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗮𝗻, 𝗣𝗲𝗻𝗻𝘀𝘆𝗹𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗪𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗻. 𝗦𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿’𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝟱𝟰% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺 𝟯𝟮% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲." "And that seems to be the driving factor in Silver’s model. Considering every other state, Silver’s final estimation is that Trump has a 66% chance of winning the election compared to Biden’s 34%. To put that in perspective, in 2012, when Silver first attained election forecasting fame, he estimated that then-President Barack Obama had a 60% chance of beating Mitt Romney." by Conn Carroll Full article: https://lnkd.in/ejNzfcMT Washington Examiner

Nearing the end of one of the hottest weeks of the summer in Texas, here's a look at how grid politics, and more specifically, voters' consistent lack of confidence that the grid has been made more reliable, creates a persistent liability for statewide Republicans: https://lnkd.in/g6Va8vQa

Trump has 64% chance of winning US presidential election — bookmakers The US presidential election will be held on November 5 NEW YORK, July 22/ US Republican Party candidate Donald Trump has a 64% chance of winning the presidential election, the Polymarket prediction market platform said. According to it, bets on Trump's victory stand at $40.9 million, while bets on the incumbent US Vice President Kamala Harris amount to $22.4 million. The PredictIt political betting site said, in turn, that the billionaire has a 61% chance of winning, while his likely rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, has a 39% chance. The US presidential election will be held on November 5. The Democratic Party was supposed to be represented by Joe Biden, but after his failed performance in the June debate with Trump, calls for the incumbent head of state to give up the fight grew louder among Democrats. On July 21, he decided to withdraw from the race and endorse Harris for the state's top office. #business #finance #financialservices

Are You Making These Investing Mistakes Ahead of the 2024 Election? We’re all prone to cognitive biases when facing uncertainty. https://lnkd.in/gYaZx3bV Barron's, Jeffrey Condren: https://lnkd.in/geNgu3N7 #investing #stocks #bonds #cfp #financialplanning #planner #volatility #fiduciary #debt #wealth #education #educationplanning #college #savings #budget #bullmarket #bearmarket #millennial #hsa #healthsavings #estate #estateplanning

American voters look set to see a rematch of Biden versus Trump next year. Each will have a very different agenda from the other if elected, but the ability to implement this will hinge on whether they can also secure control of Congress. We explore how the economy and various asset classes could perform under the possible scenarios. https://okt.to/28gitY #Schroders #investing #USelection

Excerpt: He has been impeached twice, tried to thwart the peaceful transfer of power after losing the 2020 presidential election, faces scores of charges in multiple criminal cases, and his critics warn he is plotting to rule as an autocrat. Yet, Donald Trump could still return to the White House. Trump leads his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination by nearly 50 percentage points in national opinion polls, a remarkable comeback for a one-term president who three years ago appeared vanquished and humiliated. Here are four reasons why Trump could win the November 2024 election against Democratic incumbent Joe Biden:

In a nutshell

In today’s #FeroxForecast, we look at the recent polling numbers between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump across a handful of swing states. After the Presidential Debate on June 27th, nearly 40% of Democratic voters were frustrated regarding the 2024 election, according to Morning Consult on July 24th. The day after Vice President Harris took over the ticket those numbers shrunk to 17%.    As of Monday, August 12th, The Nevada Independent reported that Vice President Harris leads in Nevada by 6%, which is the largest polling lead the state has seen this election cycle. In the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Vice President Harris leads 50%-46% among likely voters. When the New York Times/Siena College poll factored in third-party candidates, Vice President Harris and former President Trump go 48%-43% respectively, with votes bleeding from the former president.    Stay tuned for more insights from our 50+ slide election outlook deck as we hustle toward November 5th!   #TossUp #Hustle #SchoolsOut #2024Election

POLITICS: This election cycle is gearing up to be one of the busiest election seasons we've seen since the advent of P2P technologies and the rise in contentiousness between both parties. For those of you that don't realize it, Citizens United has opened the floodgates for hidden contributions, fundraising, and $$. Politics is now BIG BUSINESS in the United States, and democracy is seriously at risk. Trump's strength with his supporters and unfortunately, Trump and MAGA supporters have a huge implication to the current "Republican Party" and the eventual R Nominee! Wake up Americans, our democracy is contingent upon voters "educating" themselves on the candidates, issues, and possible "victors" in this year's primaries and eventually, the general election. It'll come faster than you think or want! WAKE UP, RESEARCH TO LEARN MORE AND ACTIVATE IN STATE YOU RESIDE!

The 2024 United States Election: Who Will Win, Trump or Harris? Key Factors at Play As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing contests in recent history. Both candidates bring unique strengths and face significant challenges. Here's a look at the key factors that could determine the outcome: Donald Trump: - Strengths: Trump continues to command strong support within the Republican Party, with a clear message focused on economic growth and conservative values. His media presence remains robust, keeping him at the forefront of political discourse. - Weaknesses: Legal challenges and his polarizing style may alienate moderate voters. Overcoming these hurdles will be crucial for a successful campaign. Kamala Harris: - Strengths: As Vice President, Harris has the advantage of being a leading Democratic figure. Her focus on social justice and healthcare resonates with progressive and minority voters. - Weaknesses: Harris needs to establish a distinct political identity and address mixed public perceptions. Her ability to unify the Democratic base will be key. Prediction Tools: - Weighted Occam's Razor: Suggests that voters may lean towards the candidate offering straightforward, decisive policies, potentially favoring Trump's economic message. - Pareto's Principle: Highlights that addressing a few critical issues, like healthcare and economic recovery, could sway the majority of voters. Both candidates must prioritize these to maximize their appeal. The political landscape is ever-changing, and the final outcome will depend on various factors, including economic conditions and public sentiment on key issues. As the race unfolds, staying informed and engaged is essential. What are your thoughts on the potential outcomes of this election? Let's discuss in the comments! #2024Elections #Trump #KamalaHarris #PoliticalAnalysis #Leadership