Tina Fordham’s Post

Transcript

I know you watched the the debate. I wanna get your take on it, especially when we talk about how it impacts investors. What did you you hear and see that you think investors should pay especially close attention to? The fact that it was a disaster for the Biden campaign in the short term has put up the odds for Trump winning. But remember that we've also introduced a whole new variable and potentially change the entire calculus here, that the pressure will be on Biden to step aside. There is still time in principle before the August Democratic Party convention. You know a lot of stories out about that, including our Brian Schwartz, who wrote an article about top Democratic donors. You know, basically sounding the alarm. I wanna get to that in a minute. But first, I want to get your take on something. So, Biden, Trump also touching on the former president's 2017 corporate tax cuts, which are set to expire next year. We're gonna play a piece of this for the audience. I wanna get your take. We pride ourselves in a situation where his his economy, he rewarded the wealthy. He had the largest tax cut in American history, $2 trillion. He raised a deficit larger than any president has in any one term. The only thing he was right about is I gave you the largest tax cut in history. I also gave you the largest regulation cut in history. That's why we had all the jobs and the jobs went down and then they bounced back and he's taking credit for bounce back jobs. You can't do that. Alright, as you just mentioned, it looks like President Trump or former President Trump now seeming to take a lead. It's still, you know, months away from the election, but seeming to take a lead in the minds of many people. How should investors view this idea that it's President Trump taking the lead and and this, these corporate tax cuts are on the table is a key issue in this election? Well, Frank, one of the things that has really struck me in my conversations with institutional investors in the US and globally is the extent to which market participants, I think, made-up their mind along time ago that not only was Trump the best candidate for for markets, but that he was certain to win. And what I'm suggesting is that Biden's poor performance yesterday, I think has upended the odds and the dynamics of this race. So for the time being, you know, we didn't learn more about the the policy on reducing the US debt. Trump reinforced his position on taxes. I just think the optics really overshadowed anything about the policy that the candidates were trying to communicate. Really. So you think this one debate upended everything completely? That's really interesting. A lot of articles out about, again, Democrat donors sounding the alarm or Brian Schwartz with a great article. Seen some other articles say that there's some some people floating out there. A different ticket of different candidates running. So how should investors view that? Just that possibility. That there is plenty of time to run the the August Democratic National Party Convention, an open convention, is not something that I was advocating before seeing this. What I'm, you know, saying based on my experience is that it's going to be very difficult to reverse the optics of Biden's performance. He looked haunted. He he looked old. We didn't see the vigorous kind of performance that we had from Biden, for example, during the January State of the Union. Address He had an off night, but he couldn't afford an off night. Two of the names I've heard floated out there, Governor W Moore and also Governor Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, Westmore from Maryland. Anything that investors should be focused on. Just the fact that there are possibilities. That all bets are now off, yes, you know, we all watched the predicted odds at least I did go from 51 for for Trump to 62. That's what investors think. I think people who support President Biden were watching and heartbroken, frankly, that someone who has been. A strong leader for, you know, many years in public service came across as so frail. I think the odds are completely shifted. I think this is more than a vibe shift. How the path transpires from here is really unclear. Former governor, as you mentioned is probably the most likely choice. But remember that Biden can't be pushed. He has to come to this decision.