Wells Fargo’s Post

Inflation Protection allows your long-term care policy benefits to grow year over year. So, when it comes time to receive care, you’ll have more money to help pay the bills. Disclosure: https://bit.ly/3QpYWox

Pulse on Political Narratives – Inflation: While candidates in both parties focus on lowering the prices companies charge American consumers, Democrats and Republicans point to decidedly different causes of #inflation. https://ow.ly/8TGw50SJjsn #PTElectionMatters

I expect rates to open higher today I think the odds of Trump winning the election will surge following the failed assasination attempt. That, in turn, drives rates higher. I wouldn’t expect anything dramatic, but maybe 5-10bps on the long end of the curve. I would expect a far more muted reaction on the front end given how much that is dictated by Fed policy. The rate reaction will wash out by the next major eco data point or Fed speech. Also, wtf. We don’t settle differences like this.

Below is from Dave Bratt @brateconomics posted on Gettr in Oct 2023, and unfortunately I think #inflation is here to stay, especially in light of point 5) below, which is a growing snowball rolling downhill with $1 Trillion added to our National Debt every 100 days due to out-of-control Federal Spending. This is unsustainable, so it's time for a Convention of States to rein in this Federal leviathan! *************************************************************************** And so, folks… around and round we go in the ultimate vicious circle within which all debt-soaked nations throughout history ultimately find themselves. That is: 1) poorly managed nations get too drunk on debt, and then 2) debase their currency to pay their debt; thereafter, 3) inflation comes, followed by 4) rising rates to fight that inflation, which in turn means 5) higher debt service costs, which means 6) more inflationary currency creation is rolled out to pay those higher rates. The World Is Catching On… We, of course, are not the only ones who see this. In fact, pretty much the entire world is catching on, with the BRICS+ nations making the first steady moves (de-dollarization as central banks continue to stack physical gold .... It's that obvious!

Have not heard the democrats bragging about Biden's economy after the February Inflation report came out earlier this week; did I miss something? 1> Biden's term/cumulative inflation is now at 22%. 2> Interest payments on our debt thus far for Fiscal 2024 is at $357 billion paid; more than one third of collected taxes go to paying on our Interest Expense. 3> Interest on our Federal debt is $96 billion higher through the first four months of this fiscal year than the same period last year. 4> the U.S. Government spent $69.2 billion on Interest Expenses alone in January; that's more than what we spent on national defense ($60B) or healthcare (68B).

Both the House and Senate have left Washington now for the August recess. They will return in September with a packed agenda and the elections in the homestretch, which doesn’t bode well for an ambitious agenda other than tackling “must-do” issues, such as continued government funding. We cover the September policy agenda as well as the likely campaign-related activities in our update this week. One thing we omit from the policy side is the Fed’s expected announcement to cut interest rates on September 18. Will that have a political impact? Will voters feel that the economy is improving, especially when you pair that with reduced inflation at the gas pump that voters may notice in this travel season? Or, are their perceptions already baked in on the state of the economy and have they already calculated that into how they will vote? Normally, economic improvements take some time to work through the system for voters to feel them, and this may be the case now. Regardless, it’s another wrinkly to throw into September that could impact the election.

“In a 336-95 vote on Tuesday, the Republican-run House of Representatives approved a two-step measure that prevents a partial government shutdown.” Senate approval next 🆙 Suggests continued market rally tomorrow following today’s cooling inflation update from October’s CPI print, somewhat implying the data dependent Fed may be done ✅ hiking interest rates. All good 👍🏾 so long October Producer Price Index (PPI, aka Wholesale Inflation) and Retail Sales prints on tap tomorrow Wednesday align with cooling inflation and overall US economy. Senate next 🆙 #house #congress #usdebt #useconomy #retailsalea #ppi #wholesaleinflation #fed #federalreserve #governmentshutdown #moodys #moodysratingcut #creditoutlook #debt #usdebt #governmentfunding #treasuries #yields #markets #investing #ussenate

Democrats might have other priorities right now, but pump prices are usually up there somewhere in the summer before an election. This summer, though, gasoline conditions in the US look pretty comfortable. Average prices are lower than last year and, as a share of Americans’ disposable income, they are around pre-pandemic levels. Indeed, on that measure, and leaving aside the demand shock of 2020, fuel costs under Biden haven’t been that different from when Trump was in the White House. The risk for Democrats lies in the swing states. And not because those are particularly big gas guzzlers. Read about it here at Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/e2qF2K4v

Ok here is my facts only State of the Union. You decide if you are better off now or not.                                           1/20/21       1/20/22   11/6/22     3/8/24 30 Year Interest Rate  2.75%          4.03%     7.73%        7.497% Unemployment               6.7%             3.7%      3.7%         3.7% Inflation rate                     1.2%             7.0%       8.3%        3.3% Dow                                 31,193         35,256     32,827    38,791 NASDAQ                        13,475         14,537       10,564    16,273 S&P 500                           3850            4570          3806      5157 GDP Growth YTD                2%              2.3%         1.9%      3.3% Milk (gallon)                     $1.99           $3.77        $4.49      $2.99 Ground Beef per lb         $4.99          $6.37        $6.99     $6.99 Gas 1 gallon                      $2.19           $3.076      $3.82     $3.28 Forever stamp                  $.55              $.58           $.60       $.68 Cost due to local state fed regulation ⬆️10.86% 2021            2022               2023 $84,671     $93,330          $93,870 Home Sales  ⬇️33% 2021              2022              2023                6,120,000     5,030,000   4090000   Credit card debt in USA ⬆️46.7% 2021     2022     2023 770B     986B     1.13T Average wage per hour Wi ⬆️6.4% 2020      2021      2022 20.24     21.55     no data Average consumer spending per household ⬆️17% 2020        2021        2022   $62,334  $66,928   $72,967  What are your thoughts on the economy, inflation, and #costofliving?