WLRN Public Media’s Post

Trumpification of the party! Republicans need to take the blinders off and start doing the math. Although Trump has been winning these primaries overwhelmingly he is still not covering a large portion of the population. There are roughly 15 to 20% of the Republicans that will never vote for Trump. He’s losing the Independents by only carrying 35% of them. And there’s not a Democrat alive that will ever vote for someone so vulgar. A WSJ recent article pointed out these interesting facts. Political independents represent a weak bloc of Trump support, according to surveys of primary voters by AP Vote-Cast. In South Carolina, one-third of them backed Trump compared with 62% of the independents who backed Haley. In New Hampshire, Haley captured independents by a wider margin—67% to Trump’s 30%. “You can’t have a candidate who’s going to win a primary who can’t win a general,” Haley said. Trump is dominant in a party that, to a large degree, he has helped to reshape by drawing in working-class supporters. Some 69% of Republicans nationally who say they will vote in a presidential primary or caucus this year don’t have a four-year college degree, up from 51% in 2015, NBC News polling has found. The Wall Street Journal was a partner in the 2015 survey. Amid Trump’s dominance, those divisions offer some cautions for the former president in that his success in drawing working-class voters might be alienating too many of the upper-income, college-educated and generally suburban voters he will need in November. In South Carolina, 16% of Republicans in the GOP primary said they would be so disappointed if Trump were the nominee that they wouldn’t back him in November, a potentially dangerous signal that he could have trouble rallying his party behind him.

https://lnkd.in/gBEHDJNP "Political partisans are always dreaming of final victories. Each election raises the hope of realignment—a convergence of issues and demographics and personalities that will deliver a lock on power to one side or the other. In my lifetime, at least five “permanent” majorities have come and gone. President Lyndon B. Johnson’s landslide triumph over Barry Goldwater in 1964 seemed to ratify the postwar liberal consensus and doom the Republican Party to irrelevance—until, four years later, Richard Nixon’s narrow win augured an “emerging Republican majority” (the title of a book by his adviser Kevin Phillips) based in the white, suburban Sun Belt. In 1976, Jimmy Carter heralded a winning interracial politics called “the Carter coalition,” which proved even shorter-lived than his presidency. With Ronald Reagan, the conservative ascendancy really did seem perpetual. After the Republican victory in the 2002 midterm elections, George W. Bush’s operative Karl Rove floated the idea of a majority lasting a generation or two. But around the same time, the writers John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira published The Emerging Democratic Majority, which predicted a decades-long advantage for the party of educated professionals, single women, younger voters, and the coming minority majority. The embodiment of their thesis soon appeared in Barack Obama—only to be followed by Donald Trump and the revenge of the white working class, a large plurality that has refused to fade away. Recent American history has been hard on would-be realigners. The two parties are playing one of the longest deuce games since the founding. Even with the structural distortion of the Senate and the Electoral College favoring Republicans, the American people remain closely divided. The Democratic presidential candidate has won seven of the last eight popular votes, while the national vote for the House of Representatives keeps swinging back and forth between the parties. Stymied by a sense of stalemate, both now indulge in a form of magical thinking."

Young voters just made a key discovery: America is in decline. At least, they believe it to be.  I laid this out in my latest for the Washington Examiner. It’s something older voters have worried about for arguably much longer. Now, the gap between the two age demographics’ attitudes is narrowing. This could put Democrats at an uncomfortable disadvantage. They know it – and it’s why they’re scrambling to mobilize the disillusioned youth. A recent poll by Blueprint revealed that young Americans see their country as corrupt and failing. The pandemic, managed by Democrats, deepened their dissatisfaction with draconian lockdowns and soaring debt. The president’s rhetoric further alienates them. Republicans would be wise to seize this moment to restore belief in the American dream. Free market capitalism offers a path forward, promising growth and opportunity. The GOP's challenge is clear: Give young voters a reason to believe in their country again. #leadership #politicalscience #economy 

https://lnkd.in/e4M8Dz5n Sanders sounds alarm: Trump win spells disaster for democracy y Jordan Atwood -January 18, 2024 ..."Sanders paints a grim picture of the future under a second Trump presidency. He foresees a systematic erosion of democratic principles, where voter suppression and political intimidation become commonplace. According to Sanders, Trump’s administration would not outright abolish elections but would instead gradually undermine the democratic process, making it increasingly difficult for young and minority voters to participate in the electoral system. The former president’s approach, Sanders argues, would not only affect the political realm but also extend to fostering divisiveness and hostility towards minorities and immigrants. This, in Sanders’ view, is not mere speculation but a trajectory based on Trump’s previous actions and rhetoric. The Vermont senator emphasizes the need to clearly communicate these risks to the American public, stressing the importance of understanding the full implications of a democratic collapse. Sanders challenges the notion that Trump’s support base consists solely of extremists. He believes that many of Trump’s followers are driven by a sense of governmental neglect and economic despair. This perspective leads Sanders to critique not just Trump, but also the Democratic Party, which he feels has failed to adequately address the needs of ordinary Americans. In Sanders’ view, the Democratic Party has become too consultant-driven and disconnected from the working class, a situation that has allowed Trump to position himself as a champion for the disenfranchised. Sanders calls for a more assertive and policy-driven approach from the Democrats, warning that a lackluster response to Trump’s populism could lead to further erosion of democratic norms and values. Sanders articulates a vision for America that goes beyond mere opposition to Trump. He envisages a country where the government actively works to address the needs of its citizens, particularly in areas such as healthcare, education, and income inequality. He sees this proactive stance as essential in defeating Trump’s brand of politics. ... Sanders himself, at 82, embodies this principle. Despite his age, he remains a dynamic and influential figure in American politics, driven by a commitment to progressive values and the well-being of future generations. His continued activism and advocacy, even in the face of personal challenges, demonstrate his belief in the power of enduring commitment to political ideals."...

https://lnkd.in/gXZTbMZA "For all of the enthusiasm and cash Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign is generating for Democrats, her true tests are about to begin. Why it matters: To beat Donald Trump, Harris will have to overcome President Biden's polling deficits — and questions about how well she'll fare with working-class voters in the crucial "Blue Wall" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Californian likely will need to win all three without "Scranton Joe" — the monicker Biden used to remind Pennsylvania voters of his working-class roots when he won the presidency in 2020. Early national polls suggest Harris' entry has given Democrats a bump in a tight race, but the presidential election is a state-by-state contest. Harris appears to be energizing many young and minority voters. A big question is whether she also can maintain Biden's recent success among older voters — and stem Democrats' losses among groups such as Latino men and whites who didn't go to college. In a strategy memo released early Wednesday, Harris' campaign argues she can. She aims to do so partly by focusing on women's reproductive rights and contrasting Trump's legal problems with her history as a prosecutor. Biden's victory over Trump in 2020 was aided by his gains among whites who didn't attend college, a group that helped Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center. Driving the news: Larry Ceisler, a Pennsylvania-based public affairs executive, said he doesn't expect Harris to match Biden's numbers in rural parts of the state. But, he said, Harris "is going to boost turnout and support from African American voters, diverse voters and younger voters." "It could be a net positive for the ticket," Ceisler said. Another thing that might help in must-win Pennsylvania: Harris is considering Josh Shapiro, the state's popular Democratic governor, as her running mate. Putting him on the ticket could alter the calculus there."

#USPolitics #2024Election A few words about US politics and possible market reactions that clients could find interesting. VP Kamala Harris has had a couple of very good days on the back of endorsements from key democratic leaders and a base that has become emboldened after President Biden dropped off the race. PredictIt now has Harris's contract at 54, versus Trump's at 47, meaning that this race is now back to how it was before the disastrous first presidential debate (for the Democrats). The momentum for the Harris campaign will likely remain positive until the convention takes place later this month--meaning that the price of Harris's contract could go higher and affect the "Trump trade" further, i.e. affect the barbell of small caps versus growth. Now, in my view, the decision to appoint Governor Walz as VP was quite controversial for a couple of reasons. Here's why: Minnesota is a clear "safe" blue state. Harris is up in Minnesota by 8% versus Trump according to RCP (Real Clear Politics). So, choosing Walz makes no real "electoral college difference". Pennsylvania, on the contrary, remains a "toss-up", with Trump leading Harris by 1.8% points. Pennsylvania carries 19 electoral votes. Governor Shapiro, a Jew, was an important runner-up in this democratic VP race. Even key Democratic-leaning pundits are openly accepting that he was NOT chosen because he is Jewish and that could have alienated the hard-left of the Democratic party --because of the Gaza war and the increased anti-Jewish/Israel feeling that the hard-left base is demonstrating at this time. The key state in this quandary remains Michigan, which has an organized Muslim political machinery. At this time Harris is leading Trump by 2% in that state according to RCP. Michigan carries 15 electoral votes. The key question here is IF the decision of the Harris administration to cave to the hard left will hurt her enough with independents and suburban college-educated women. The decision of Trump to go FULL MAGA with JD Vance did NOT help his case with independents and college-educated women, which remains the most engaged vote in US elections, according to most political scientists I follow. In any case, the bottomline here is that this election remains Trump's to lose, according to the math of RCP --and because of the intrinsic mechanics of the US electoral college. The latest estimation/simulation of RCP has Trump winning with 297 EC votes against Harris's 241 EC votes. Since this race will most likely remain very close, the debates, both presidential and vice-presidential, will move markets materially.

Is the Democratic Party the new champion of the well off? Losing the working class? More at inequalityink.org How the Biden White House Cornered Itself – American Compass “Working-class voters have historically been central to the Democratic coalition and the party’s leaders have tended to emphasize polarizing policies that are especially popular with those voters and on which the Republican Party could be depicted as out-of-touch. “The Biden White House has done the opposite. Americans of different classes have generally similar and positive views of the broadly supported policies, and then views that diverge significantly on the polarizing policies. But the direction of that divergence is reversed from what a successful politician might aim to achieve. Views among upper-class Americans remain largely positive, while views among working-class Americans plummet.” President Biden and the Democratic Party Are Rapidly Losing the Allegiance of Some Black Voters. Here’s Why – Atlanta Black Star https://lnkd.in/ebnkhwGw “The sectors of Black America that have long sided with Democrats at the polls aren’t just losing faith in Biden. They’re starting to cast a berth between themselves and the party he represents. “Polls conducted by the New York Times and Siena College last November reveal that 22 percent of Black voters in six of the most important battleground states – Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – said they would support Trump in 2024. While Biden still carries the advantage among this voting group, the increase in support for Trump shakes the core of Biden’s voter foundation.” CCSE article on this issue: "Addicted to Identity Politics, Progressives May Miss a Historic Chance To Connect with America’s Working Class" https://lnkd.in/eNpNUK2H https://lnkd.in/eBpNTrMP #democraticparty #workingclass #bottom50percent #inequality #Republicans #AmericanCompass #indentitypolitics #blackvoters

The Democratic Party is understandably focused on the election in November. But taking a longer term perspective provides some insights into the upcoming election. Even if the democrats win in November (which in my assessment is slightly more likely than not although there remains a small but not insignificant probability that the winner is neither Trump nor Biden), a look at the situation in 2027 and beyond is pretty dire. In 2015, you might recall that many analysts were saying that the Republican Party was in decline - that their voters were dying out. Others, myself among them, believed that the lines were being redrawn as democrats became more hawkish under Clinton and Republicans turned away from free-trade under Trump. Fast forward to today and, with this piece by John Burn-Murdoch in the Financial Times, you can see that it is the democrats who are losing their traditional voters (lots of great data in here from Ismail White and Chryl Laird). This has real consequences for 2027, but also provides some insights into why Biden is going to struggle so much in November. And why, if Trump weren’t his opponent, he would almost certainly lose. Even as you manage the short term, you can’t lose sight of the long-term. Taking this broader perspective, going to 30,000 foot, can tell you something vital for the now. It also makes it more likely that you’re still in business in 5 years. Wickett Advisory #geopoliticalrisk #executivecoaching #professionalwomen https://on.ft.com/3uYDOyX

United States: Aging leaders threaten world order. Young Voters Are Fed Up With Their (Much) Older Leaders. Led by politicians often three times their age, many voters under 30 are hungry for new blood and new ideas. “How are you going to accurately lead your country if your mind is still stuck 50, 60 or 70 years ago?” Ms. Chadwick, a customer service representative in Rialto, Calif., said of the many septuagenarian leaders at the helm of her party. “It’s not the same, and people aren’t the same, and your old ideas aren’t going to work as well anymore.” While voters across the spectrum express rising doubts about the country’s political leadership, few groups are as united in their discontent as the young. Interviews with these young voters reveal generational tensions driving their frustration. As they have come of age facing racial strife, political conflict, high inflation and a pandemic, they have looked for help from politicians who are more than three times their age. Those older leaders often talk about upholding institutions and restoring norms, while young voters say they are more interested in results. Many expressed a desire for more sweeping changes like a viable third party and a new crop of younger leaders. They’re eager for innovative action on the problems they stand to inherit, they said, rather than returning to what worked in the past. “I feel like a lot of politicians, they already come from a good upbringing,” he said. “A majority of them don’t really fully understand the scope of what the majority of the American people are going through.” Their attitudes and perspectives may become conservative or inflexible. They probably don’t have children in kindergarten, and so don’t see how policy plays out in real life.