Auto industry predictions for 2019 and beyond

2018 has been a year of reckoning for the automotive and manufacturing industry. Shifting customer demands and have already forced change at Ford and GM. Ford killed the car with very little notice. GM followed suit and laid off 15k workers at the same time. Soon all of the world's automakers will have to decide on their next move to stay alive and relevant in an unstable marketplace.

Here are some of my predictions for the next few years in the auto industry.

  • 2019 will usher true competition in the premium electric car market. Tesla will be challenged by Porsche and Audi. Despite this, their dominant position in BEVs will be bolstered by growth of Model 3 sales.
  • Contrary to the premium electric vehicle market, low gas prices, further refinement of small, forced-induction gasoline engines, and no more tax credit will stifle growth of the compact BEV market. Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt, and BMW i3 will remain largely irrelevant, relatively expensive, low-volume novelties for wealthy environmentalists looking to replace their Prius.
  • The variety of small CUVs, crossovers, SUVs, and trucks will continue to increase as automakers strive to fill every niche from sub-CUVs to 3-row SUVs. 
  • Automakers will try to consolidate resources by forming more strategic partnerships in new vehicle and engine development to conserve engineering resources for development of new drivetrain and driver assist technologies.
  • Instead of spurring growth in the US auto manufacturing sector, tariffs will stunt new car sales by limiting choice and driving prices higher.

What do you think? What are your predictions as you look forward to 2019 and beyond?

Caleb Kestner

Groups Associate Pastor—Gateway Church—DAL

5y

Neat thoughts. I just read the book “American Icon” about Mulally bringing Ford through the 2008 recession, makes me curious about what’s coming next. Thanks for sharing.

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