Delivering a rapid-response plan to the GST at COP28

Whether COP28 is considered a success will hinge on the global community's reaction to the Global Stocktake (GST). Actionable waypoints can guide us toward strong collective commitments at COP28 and set us on track for course-correcting the delivery of the Paris Agreement towards COP30 in 2025 - the midway point in this decisive decade. 

We’ve all seen the findings from the GST technical report and know that we are collectively off track. We also know that critical issues of global equity need to be acknowledged, including past gaps in finance and the role that developed countries must play in addressing these gaps. This  year’s COP28 presents a moment for trust-building and, for better or worse, a moment of reckoning for the Paris Agreement. 

At the same time, there are also a wide set of actions, initiatives, and real economy trends that point toward sizable and tangible progress, and that we can build on and scale. We have the absolute imperative to seize this moment for re-building confidence in the international climate system, course-correcting toward a safer future, and doing all of this in ways that reflect equity and ensure just transitions.

These bold commitments at COP28 must also chart a course forward into the coming years. We must keep the momentum as we focus on successfully implementing our current goals and then through the revision of NDCs in the lead up to COP30 in Brazil. We will need continued visionary leadership, stubborn determination, and deep partnership across groups of government, business and civil society leaders such as yourselves.

Together, we know that a rapid-response plan to the Global Stocktake which can give us hope of setting us back on track needs to include:

1. Follow through on the guidance emerging from the Global Stocktake agreed at COP28, including through updated National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and through enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) delivered at least nine months before COP30 that include ambitious 2030 and 2035 targets that align with a just transition to net-zero emission, and reflect the ambition required to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C.

Illustrative signs of progress to build upon:

• The Paris Agreement is working. While there is further to go, existing commitments have brought expected 2100 temperature rise down from 3.7-4.8°C in 2010 projections to 2.4–2.6 °C in projections from 2022, with the possibility of reaching 1.7–2.1 °C when taking into account the full implementation of long-term net zero targets (GST Technical Synthesis Report, 2023) 

• Just transitions are gaining momentum in economies around the world, with just transition plans already formally incorporated into nearly 80% of Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) (LT-LEDS Synthesis Report, 2022).  A well-designed just transition can maximize the opportunities from the green transition, leading to more robust, diversified, and equitable local and national economies. 

• All Parties to the Paris Agreement have communicated NDCs that include mitigation targets and/or measures. More than 80% of these have been revised since their initial submission, with nearly three-quarters of these conveying strengthened 2025 or 2030 emissions targets. An increasing number of NDCs also contain adaptation targets, up to 80% as of 2022 (GST Technical Synthesis Report, 2023). 97 Parties, representing 101 countries and 80.7% of global GHG emissions, have communicated a net-zero target (Climate Watch).

2. At least triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 while equitably phasing out fossil fuels, in line with a 1.5 degree C pathway.   

Illustrative signs of progress to build upon:

• In recent years, the world has seen a profound shift in the cost-competitiveness of renewable energy, which is now cheaper than any other form of power generation in virtually every market and geography—even before externalized costs of energy are taken into account. Globally, the levelized cost of electricity from solar projects fell 85%between 2010 and 2020. Investment in clean energy has risen 40% since 2020, with more than $1 billion per day being spent on solar deployment (IEA World Energy Investment 2023; World Energy Outlook 2023).

• The share of people living without energy access has fallen by 40% since 2010, but is still too large at 675 million people. Growth in distributed renewable technology is helping to bridge the gap to secure universal access by 2030, but more is needed (Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2023).

• Renewables and energy storage technologies are generally mature, available, and seeing increasing deployment; a reflection of their quickly decreasing costs and commitments to clean energy and domestic energy security. From 2022 to 2023, wind and solar generation grew by 19%; near the rate needed to achieve tripling of capacity by 2030 (Ember Global Electricity Review 2023). Meanwhile, energy storage installation reached a record high in 2023. It’s expected that this growth trend will continue, reaching 650GW cumulative installed capacity by 2030 (BNEF 2H 2023 Energy Storage Market Outlook).

• Political momentum toward the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 is strong. Members of the G20 committed to this goal in their 2023 G20 New Delhi Leaders' Declaration. Over 250 non-state actors, representing $12 trillion in market value, have issued an open letter endorsing this goal. Research by the IEA has made it clear that this goal is within reach, and vital to a safer future, and the COP Presidency has repeatedly indicated their ambition to achieve an agreement on tripling renewables by 2030 at COP28.

• Electric vehicle penetration in new vehicle markets has been exponential in recent years, far outstripping the expectations of leading experts. In 2020, one in 25 cars sold was electric; by 2023, this was now one in 5 (IEA World Energy Outlook).

• There is an important opportunity to repurpose existing fossil fuel subsidies to support the clean energy transition and accelerate energy access for all, while also ensuring a just transition. In 2022, governments provided subsidies to fossil fuel consumption of over $1 trillion, the highest ever seen. This does not reflect extra spending to protect consumers affected by high energy bills in Europe in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - these add up to an additional $500bn. (IEA, Fossil Fuel Consumption Subsidies 2022) 

3. Foster climate-resilient, sustainable food systems and agriculture that ensure food security, increase yields, and reduce emissions, while avoiding further land expansion and halting and reversing deforestation, degradation and biodiversity loss.

Illustrative signs of progress to build upon:

• Forest loss in Brazil has fallen by nearly half in 2023, under new political leadership prioritizing forest preservation (INPE DETER, via Mongabay). Meanwhile, Indonesia and Malaysia have managed to keep primary forest loss near record low levels, reversing an upward trend across the early 2000s (Global Forest Watch). Leadership attributes this to domestic foreign protection policy, increased enforcement, and corporate commitments such as the No Deforestation, No Peat and No Exploitation (NDPE) commitments now covering the majority of the palm oil sector. International initiatives such as the Forest and Climate Leaders’ Partnership, are helping to build and sustain momentum.

• Advances in satellite monitoring technology mean that we now have near real-time, free and low-cost data on deforestation, which is helping countries, regions, corporates and civil society to monitor and enforce deforestation bans (Global Forest Watch).

• Fourteen of the world’s largest agri-commodity traders have signed onto a Roadmap to 1.5C, including specific actions their companies will take to reduce emissions, protect producer livelihoods, and transform the palm, soy, cattle, and cocoa industries in line with a 1.5-degree future. The roadmap includes commitments to annual progress reporting to ensure accountability.

• Evidence is clear that regenerative and sustainable approaches to food production are affordable and effective, although the transition will require time and funds (Global Land Outlook 2022). We have the tools to simultaneously protect landscapes, promote human health, and ensure food security for our growing population (Feeding the Future).

4. Urgently bolster the response to climate impacts by enhancing capacities for adaptation and responding to loss and damage, including through increased and high-quality finance that’s accessible to the most vulnerable populations.

Illustrative signs of progress to build upon:

• The World Meteorological Organization has described early warning systems as “the low-hanging fruit of climate change adaptation” because they are a relatively cheap and effective way to protect people and assets from hazards. A wide variety of organizations, networks, funds, and others already work on different parts of the puzzle and the UNSG “Early Warnings for All” initiative is rallying them in a coordinated effort. (Early Warnings For All Initiative scaled up into action on the ground)

• The Global Cooling Pledge, which aims to expand sustainable cooling for all, is gaining momentum ahead of COP28. Adaptation via improved cooling – which builds on the historic global commitment to the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol passed in 2016 – includes approaches such as super-efficient appliances, nature-based solutions, district cooling, and food and vaccine cold-chains, can provide enormous mitigation benefits while protecting communities from extreme heat, supporting food security, and improving quality of life.

• Locally led adaptation is gaining ground and supporting local communities’ self-determination in adaptation. For example, in Zimbabwe, the grassroots-established and community-managed Gungano Urban Poor Fund provides quick, easy-to-access loan finance to households and groups in informal urban settlements throughout the country. Participants use funds to build their own resilience to climate change, such as through housing upgrades.

• While it still falls far short of what’s needed, adaptation finance has been rapidly growing, with public and private finance growing by nearly 300% from 2016 to 2021 (Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2022 and 2023). At the same time, institutions and governments are innovating to create better models for local access by cooperating on projects such as the pilots for Direct Access and Enhanced Direct Access to simplify how local actors can access resources from multilateral funds while preserving national determination for this work. Regardless, more finance is urgently needed  to meet the estimated annual adaptation costs of $215 billion - $387 billion, every year this decade; needs of developing countries are currently 10-18 times higher than the flow of public financing (UNEP Adaptation Gap Report).

5. Scale up and shift finance in pursuit of all of these goals, by providing increased, accessible, and efficient public finance; advancing progress on debt forgiveness or restructuring for highly indebted countries hit by climate impacts;  promoting enabling policies in the trade and financial sectors; and holding corporate and financial institutions to account for patterns of production and investment, with developed countries taking the lead in action and support.

Illustrative signs of progress to build upon:

• The greatest gains in global finance for climate action were seen in the most recent years, with public and private finance growing by at least $439 billion from 2019/2020 to 2021/2022, to reach an all time high of US$1.3 trillion in 2021/2022 (CPI Climate Finance Landscape). 

• Analysis indicates that the long-overdue $100 billion landmark (the pledge made by developed economies to mobilize $100 billion per year for climate action in developing countries) may now, at last, be met in 2023 (Summit on a New Global Financing Pact), and countries are working together on a new, post-2025 finance goal. Meanwhile, institutional transformations are underway including the operationalization of the groundbreaking loss and damage fund, early-stage green reforms agreed this month at the World Bank, and reform discussions underway across other IFIs.  .

• The private finance sector is increasingly integrating climate risks and opportunities in their own investment choices. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) provides a global forum for engaging over 650 financial firms across more than 50 countries on substantive, cross-cutting issues that will accelerate the alignment of financing activities with net zero. Their focus areas are: net zero transition planning for financial institutions; mobilizing capital for emerging markets and developing countries; and net-zero public policy.

• A slew of disclosure regulations has been released across the globe, from the E.U.’s European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS), California’s Climate Disclosure Rules, and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) pending Climate Disclosure rule, which require corporates to disclosure material climate risks across varying materiality thresholds. These mandatory regulations can have an enormous impact on the way that institutional and retail investors are able to manage climate risks and opportunities, and in the long-term can build up to transition planning regulations that require firms to disclose how they will manage climate risks and invest in transitions to greener operations.

• In terms of domestic finance, almost 25% of global emissions are now covered by a carbon tax or emissions trading scheme, with new carbon pricing mechanisms introduced in the last few years in Indonesia, South Africa, Argentina, China amongst others. Existing schemes have been increasing prices and adding new sectors. In 2022, carbon pricing revenues reached almost $100 billion worldwide (World Bank State and Trends of Carbon Pricing).

In partnership,

Saliem Fakir, African Climate Foundation 

Andrew Steer, Bezos Earth Fund

Nat Keohane, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions

Helen Mountford, ClimateWorks Foundation

Arunabha Ghosh, Council on Energy, Environment and Water

Nick Mabey, E3G

Joshua Amponsem, Green Africa Youth Organisation

Adrián Fernández Bremauntz, Iniciativa Climática de México

Maria Netto, Instituto Clima e Sociedade

Kehinde Ogunjobi, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use

Ani Dasgupta, World Resources Institute