Electric Cars in Australia?

USA Most of the media reports on electric cars are US Centric rather than global, often to the extent that it might appear that Tesla invented the electric car and will become the new Apple iPhone of cars.

Firstly, In 1828, Ányos Jedlik, a Hungarian who invented an early type of electric motor, created a small model car powered by his new motor. In 1834, Vermont blacksmith Thomas Davenport built a similar contraption which operated on a short, circular, electrified track.

Secondly, the largest electric car manufacturer is BYD in China. BYD’s global auto sales have increased roughly 45 percent annually over the last two years noting that BYD has multiple models. Last year 507,000 electric cars were sold, a 53 percent increase over the year before, though that’s still a small part of China’s 28 million car market, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Tesla by comparison has sold around 210,000 globally noting an underlying variance between sold (ordered) and delivered. Electric vehicles (EVs) sharing the next few places is confusing because different models are offered in different markets but in the US Nissan, Chevy and Toyota are major contenders but it changes as different manufacturers come on to the market e.g. BMW and Volvo plus Audi has announced three new US EV models.

AUSTRALIA Source ABS: There were 18.8 million registered motor vehicles in Australia as at 31 January 2017. The national vehicle fleet grew by 2.1 per cent between 2016 and 2017. Petrol powered vehicles decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 75.7 per cent of the national fleet. Diesel powered vehicles increased by 1.3 percentage points to 22.2 per cent of the Australian fleet and this category remains the fastest growing by fuel type. The balance of 2.1% includes LPG and electric. Average age of all vehicles registered in Australia was 10.1 years. So a long way to go?

BIG PICTURE Average age of vehicles does not directly imply the graph of vehicles useable life (noting cars are written off after crashes, simply become un- roadworthy etc.). I endeavoured to model how long it would take for EVs having say 25% or 50% of vehicles on the road: this is difficult given the average age and useable life. There are also other factors:

• Most of the population in Australia live in several major cities (unlike the US which is multiple major cities or Europe with quite a dense population by comparison). Today roughly 300km (given reasonable land and careful driving) is around the maximum range of current EVs (and this will increase e.g. Audi is developing solar panel car roofs and alternative technology batteries are emerging). This would be OK for many city dwellers as long as there is easy access to re-charging e,g. houses or apartment car parks that have agreed to install re-charging but don't hold your breath on the latter. Those who park on the street will have issues. For regional dwellers and those who have reason to drive longer distances there is a significant set of dependencies on a network of fast re-charging stations (most globally are currently fairly slow. These factors will impede the take up of EVs.
• As EV availability increases and there are more manufacturers and models then the re-sale value of diesel and portal cars will decrease. This may have already with diesel happened after the recent set of scandals.
• Until Australia has a greater level of green energy (hydro, wind and solar) then the impact of EVs on clean energy may be minimal since most would be effectively powered by coal or gas electric power. Other countries have similar issues but others vary enormously e.g. Norway which is at 99% renewable energy. However, there is the impact on certain types of pollutants. Diesel emission pollutants include unburned hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides or particulate matter not just carbon dioxide and monoxide.

So, to endeavour to answer the question, it could easily take 15-20 years for Australia to achieve 50% EV penetration and this answer may have a major variance attached to it.

EUROPE As a footnote the European market is interesting largely due to the larger range of manufacturers and models available together with the level of renewable energy in many countries:

Thanks to and more reading:

https://evobsession.com/27-increase-european-electric-car-sales/