Electric Vehicles: has Tesla brought us to that point of no return?
Sohail Hasnie

Electric Vehicles: has Tesla brought us to that point of no return?

I hope you remember the Harvard Business Review article:

Tesla’s Not as Disruptive as You Might Think, especially one paragraph:

"Tesla is betting that preferences will change—that someday millions of people will want electric vehicles. If that happens, Bartman believes that GM, Toyota, and others could shift to EVs relatively quickly, using their existing manufacturing capabilities, supplier networks, and dealerships to fend off the threat."

Let's look at this para closely: if condition in (i) is satisfied, it will enable (ii) to happen.

(i) "someday, millions of people will want electric vehicles"; and when that happens,

(ii) "GM, Toyota and others could shift to EVs quickly".

I wonder; are we at that point already?

Today we have more than a million electric vehicles (EV) running in the world and Tesla received more than 400,000 orders for its Model 3 in one week. This could be a proxy that "millions of people want electric vehicles" already. Let us assume condition (i) is met.

And may that's why we are seeing (ii): the EVs are coming en masse, if we read this publication:

7 Automakers with Major Electric Vehicle Programs in the Works

  • GM with Chevrolet Bolt with 238 mile on single charge
  • Volvo with XC90 (North America) and S60 (Europe)--plans to sell 1 million by 2025
  • Mercedes-Benz--two SUVs, two sedans and commercial trucks
  • Ford--13 future vehicles by 2020 and $4.5 billion
  • Volkswagen--30 new EVs and 2-3 million plug-in by 2025
  • BMW--Series 3 and series 7 plug-in sold out. i5 and i6 may soon join i3 and i8.
  • Audi E-tron Quattro, and all-electric SUV with 250 km range

While Nissan-Renault continues its lead in global EV sales.

Maybe we have reached that point of no return when the disbelievers have lost their battle and EVs will be the only option going forward.

Developing Asia has 100+ million tricycles or Tuktuks, double that number of motorcycles, and tons of buses, trucks and boats.

I wrote earlier, in

Electric Car--are we missing a bottom up plan to tackle Climate Change?

"We need to start an electric car revolution at the bottom of the pyramid--which can trigger a faster and wider market adoption--side by side as the developed world brings in the Telsa, Chevy Volt or the Nissan Leaf at the top of the pyramid.

For real transformation, we need the inspiration and technology from the Tesla's of the world, but we need governments in developing countries to develop large electric vehicle projects".

This will give us all the energy independence, reduce air pollution, help mitigate the impact of climate change, and achieve the targets set in Paris.



Fully agree, home/office/building/city parking lot charging is the key.

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Ralf Burgstaller

Innovativ and fast selling

7y

Yes no return!

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Christian Girardeau

Innovation to foster e-mobility

7y

This looks like the truth coming now. 2 conditions are close to be met: range and where can I charge my car. With increased battery capacity. 25 40 60 100 kWh or more range anxiety is vanishing. What needs to be solved is the home charging inc condos. And the financing for the mass market

RE: "We need to start an electric car revolution at the bottom of the pyramid--which can trigger a faster and wider market adoption--side by side as the developed world brings in the Telsa, Chevy Volt or the Nissan Leaf at the top of the pyramid. Indeed. It's what we're doing and what I'd like to talk about

Mitesh Phalak

Founder at BuySolar.me

7y

In India, bottom of pyramid can afford 2 wheelers & they aspire for 4 wheeler to display affluence in society. Thus, electric 4 wheeler which is cheap but doesn't show-off wealth can't leapfrog adoption in India. One may consider the Tata Nano(cheapest car below $1500) example as cheap as failed strategy! I think, electric car should disrupt by appeal of affluence in addition to all other parameters of car for masses. Frugal-egineered Tesla 3s can make wonders!!!

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