Will the Holiday Shopping Season Be Naughty or Nice?

Welcome to Salesforce’s Retail Roundup! In each issue, we spotlight the retail industry’s hits and misses, hot topics, and hype.

With Prime Days just around the corner, thoughts are turning to holiday shopping season (despite the toasty temperatures). And the only list hotter than Santa’s is our retail holiday shopping predictions. What can you expect this year? Shoppers are in a careful and cautious mood, so plan to use everything you know about your loyal customers if you want to win their hearts and wallets. Can we be more specific? We sure can: Read on to learn our five predictions for the season along with our tips for getting out ahead of them.

Our holiday shopping predictions are live!

We predict this holiday shopping season will be…weird. Consumers have been giving it their all through the last few years of inflation, but they finally seem to be feeling the pinch. They’re taking on more debt, with 37% of global shoppers using their credit cards more today than they were a year ago. But they aren’t buying more — online order volumes have been falling since 2022. 

In fact, 40% of shoppers say they are buying less compared to last year. And when they do buy, they’re trading down, buying discounted merchandise and seeking private labels. Consumers’ credit balances are increasing because they’re offloading inflation onto high interest credit cards. To offset this risk, consumers are saving more than ever. 

Here’s what this means for you: Shoppers are making more purchase decisions based on price. They’re waiting for the deepest discounts. Your best bet this holiday season? Focus on rewarding loyal customers rather than enticing new ones. 

We know loyalty program members make three times as many annual purchases as nonmembers. Plus, the Salesforce Shopping Index found the rate of repeat buyers in the first quarter increased by 8% over the last two years. We expect that trend to continue throughout the year. 

What other shifts do we predict will shape this holiday shopping season? Here are our five big predictions:

1. Chinese shopping apps will take market share
2. Middle-mile shipping puts pressure on margins
3. Shoppers embrace AI to search for the perfect gift
4. Black Friday becomes Cyber Friday
5. Retailers avoid high digital marketing costs by tapping loyal shoppers

Want our tips on facing these forces? Read our blog for a deep dive into what’s driving each prediction and how retailers can meet them head on.

Industry Insider - Caila Schwartz

Retail Checkout

What else do you need to know about holiday season planning?

• Get our free 2024 Retail Holiday Planning Guide to super-charge your strategy
• Learn all about conversational commerce before the holidays hit
• Read how to use data to make holiday shopping easier for your customers (and more profitable for you!)

Retail Q&A

What’s the biggest question you have about retail?

Comment below and let us know! We may choose yours as the subject for a future newsletter.

This newsletter was curated by Patricia Staino , Editorial Lead at Salesforce.

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