How to Ride the Waves from Disruption to Recovery

The Future of Work arrived on Friday the 13th of March 2020 when COVID-19 thrust us into a reality for which few of us were prepared.

We have long known that the Future of Work demands that we be resilient, agile, flexible and innovative. The sudden shock of COVID-19 has exposed many cracks in organisations and people leaders who weren’t prepared. It has also shown a spotlight on the quality of our products and services and our ability to provide exceptional customer experience.

If these concepts were important before, they are urgent now.

The economic fallout associated with COVID-19 came swiftly for some organisations but will come more slowly, in successive waves for others. 

Unfortunately, some organisations and some leaders within those organisations won’t survive into and through the recovery. 

 However, other organisations and people leaders will not only survive - they will thrive. They will come out stronger than ever because they have successfully ridden the waves from disruption to recovery. 

 It may feel like we are all figuring this new world out together, but it turns out that there are specific and predictable phases which lead from disruption to recovery. These phases are dynamic. One doesn’t begin as another ends; instead, they come like waves, building, flowing and eventually ebbing - all the while overlapping and intersecting.

What organisations and people leaders do in each phase - especially the Pre-recovery phase - determines how quickly - and how well - the organisation recover from an economic shock.

Explanation of Phases and Time Frames

The phases and timeframes, as they relate to COVID-19, are:

• Security which began in mid-March was prevalent for the first two weeks and is gradually tapering off as organisations move fully into the Survival phase. 
• Survival started almost immediately after the Security phase. The need for survival initially increases, then begins to taper off as a 'New Normal' comes into focus. We expect this phase to last four to six months, potentially longer depending on the rate of infections and how governments proceed with opening the economy up again. Many organisations and leaders are now firmly entrenched in the Survival phase.
• Pre-Recovery begins after an organisation or leader feels confident they will survive the short to mid-term. The earlier organisations and leaders enter the Pre-Recovery phase, the better positioned they will be for eventual recovery. Many organisations and leaders skip this phase, thinking that the recovery will take care of itself. Those who do may suffer severe consequences at the hand of those who prepare well and can adapt to the New Normal. 
• Recovery occurs when the New Normal begins to settle and can be defined with an amount of certainty. 

This article will focus on the New Normal and Pre-Recovery phases to help organisations take stock of what they need to do to successfully ride the waves from disruption to recovery. 

For a full overview of all of the phases from disruption to recovery and a step by step process of all commercial and workforce considerations relating to each phase please download our insights paper, “How to Ride the Waves from Disruption to Recovery” here. 

New Normal

The New Normal is not a phase as such, but a phenomenon that begins to assert itself sometime after the initial disruption. The New Normal will ultimately define recovery and can affect any part of the organisation including, but not limited to; clients or customers, geographies, pricing, supply chain, workflows workforce expectations and practices and operational procedures. 

It can take months or even years for the New Normal to become firmly established. Until then it shifts and changes and can be very challenging (and perhaps deceiving) to organisations and people who try to track it and respond to it or proactively get out in front of it. 

These twists and turns can also react to (or sometimes create) after-shocks caused by the initial disruption. 

As challenging as it is, an organisation's success depends on its ability to track the New Normal and pivot with it before it establishes itself. 

This is made even more challenging by recognising that some of the conditions present before the disruption and economic shock, which one might think will change, ultimately do not. 

Case in point. The economic shock(s) caused by COVID-19 have created wide-spread unemployment. This unemployment may last for months or years. 

And yet, this unemployment has not significantly altered the fact that many, if not most positions that require cognitive ability, strategy, creativity or the ability to solve complex problems will still have critical skills shortages. 

In fact, this skills shortage may become more dire as organisations continue to advance through technology and innovation at the speed of light - having proven they could do this during the war to fight COVID-19.

Correctly predicting which pre-disruption trends most organisations assume will change with the New Normal - but do not - presents a significant opportunity for organisations and people managers.

Businesses must begin to track and pivot with New Normal during the Survival phase and right through the Recovery phase. To do so, organisations must engage experts, either internally or externally, to help them establish long term trends that will ultimately define the New Normal from short term swings. 

Successfully navigating the New Normal is imperative to surviving any disruption and recovering from the associated economic shocks. 

Doing so begins in the Pre-recovery phase. 

Pre-recovery

The Pre-recovery phase is the most critical phase of all between disruption and economic recovery. 

Disruptions typically cause three waves of economic setback. The first affects industries that are directly impacted by the initial shock. We are seeing this with the travel, events and hospitality industries right now.

The second occurs during the Survival phase because organisations either run out of cash, have significant supply chain or customer demand issues or are ill-prepared to keep up with the changes that the New Normal demands. 

The third wave occurs during the Recovery phase. Many organisations who make it through the Survival phase ultimately lose market share and staff to their competitors. This is either because they misread the New Normal and make inappropriate or unsustainable pivots to react to temporary swings that they thought were long term trends or they did not do enough of the right things to set themselves up for recovery. 

Surviving any disruption and recovering completely - or, better yet, getting stronger as a result of the disruption - requires organisations to do two things well.

First, organisations must track the New Normal as it begins to reveal itself and make their best guesses as to which trends will become a permanent part of the New Normal. If they guess incorrectly, they must be able to quickly shift and change again as the trend morphs into something else or disappears altogether.

Secondly, organisations must begin to set themselves up for the Recovery phase before economic recovery begins. 

The Pre-recovery phase is the time to evaluate ‘business as unusual’ and to make the changes that are necessary to embrace the New Normal and thrive through recovery.

There are both commercial and workforce considerations that need to be taken into account to successfully navigate the Pre-recovery phase.

Commercial Considerations

The only question organisations must ask themselves during the Pre-recovery phase is, 

“What does the New Normal like and what do we need to differently to serve customers, secure our supply chain, protect our employees and weather any sub shocks that may occur”?

During this phase, organisations need to:

1. Review and adjust the organisational structure. 
2. Review and adjust strategic, marketing and communications plans.
3. Review and adjust products and services offered.
4. Review and adjust our client experience. 
5. Review and adjust pricing.
6. Review and adjust the supply chain.
7. Review and adjust policies and governance procedures.
8. Review and update Crisis/Disruption and Office/Site Recovery Plans. 
9. Review and update Communications Plans.

Workforce Considerations

The only question people managers and HR practitioners must ask themselves during the Pre-recovery phase is, 

“What kind of workforce do we need to adjust for the New Normal and to set ourselves up for recovery and what do we need to do to attract and retain them”?

During this phase, people managers and HR practitioners need to:

1. Complete or update their workforce plan:
2. Evaluate your current workforce and make necessary changes. 
3. Identify strategic hires that may be available or willing to look at other opportunities.
4. Update recruitment practices to ensure you can source, attract and select the best candidates on the market.
5. Update onboarding practices to concentrate more on the person and less on the process. 
6. Review your flexible work practices and structures. What needs to change to provide a flexible work environment and to cater for alternative work arrangements? 
7. Update performance management/review practices to provide real-time feedback and honest and clear communication.
8. Evaluate your current managers and leaders. Some may need to be upskilled, others removed.
9. Evaluate your current remuneration system.
10. Update any workforce policies that need to be updated. 

Recovery

It is way too early to predict what economic recovery will look like and when it will happen. However, we can safely predict that those organisations and people leaders mend the cracks exposed during the initial weeks of this crisis - and who successfully navigate the New Normal and set themselves up during the Pre-recovery phase will be in the best position to tell that tale. 

About Kim Seeling Smith

Kim Seeling Smith is the CEO of Ignite Global and one of Australia's leading Future Now of Work Experts. She is a regular commentator for The Today Show as well as several business-focused radio programs across Australia. Kim is the author of Mind Reading for Managers: 5 FOCUSed Conversations for Greater Employee Engagement and Productivity and has been recognised by Richard Branson’s 100% Human at Work Initiative for the innovative, yet practical work Ignite Global does to help businesses solve the very complex challenges around the Now of Work.

How we can help

Contact us now about our Pre-Recovery Gap Analysis to help you evaluate the steps that you need to take in Pre-Recovery not only survive – but thrive in the post-COVID-19 world - and through the inevitable disruptions to come.