NYC Real Estate - November 2022

Greetings, and I hope you are well.

Manhattan is in a strong buyer’s market territory. Recessionary fears, mortgage rates, and inflation did cause uncertainty in the market and lead to a shift in leverage.

However, we do not see a significant surge in supply. That is, despite being a buyer’s market, there is not an oversupply of listings for buyers to choose from; hence, prices have not crashed. Data suggests that the shift has happened, and we are 𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have gone down now for the 4th week in a row! The average 30-year fixed rate continued its downward shift from weeks past, Freddie Mac reported on Thursday, 12/08. The average slid to 6.33%, down from 6.49% the week prior.

A year ago, the 30-year rate was less than half that amount, at 3.10%.

Nadia Evangelou, a senior National Association of Realtors economist, believes rates will stabilize near 6% next year if inflation continues to slow.

Market Pulse

The market pulse is a ratio of pending sales to active supply. It rises as the market strengthens and leverage shifts toward sellers. It falls as the market weakens and leverage shifts toward buyers. A bottom formation tends to occur when a decelerating market shows signs of a positive turnaround. This reshapes the downward slope to a flatter one and sometimes, but not always, precedes a period of recovery. The bottom formation is circled in the chart below, along with the Covid bottom signal and arrows of past signals. Signs are pointing towards a slight recovery after a notable shift down from the early 2022 peak. Buyers, take notice of the opportunity shift in your favor. - Noah Rosenblatt, UrbanDigs

Advice

Sellers:

There is an opportunity for sellers to take advantage of an uptick in contract activity and a brief fall in lending rates as it translates to higher liquidity than what existed just a month or two ago.

 Since the market favors buyers, it is okay if you get aggressive bids and buyers trying to stretch their negotiation potential. The key is to price the property correctly and utilize the first 4 weeks of high traffic. Your first one-two bids are likely your best bids. By pricing right, you will also avoid price reductions in the future and the potential of your listing becoming stale. If you have been on the market for a while now, consider tracking recent properties that have gone ‘in contract’ and make adjustments accordingly.

Buyers:

Leverage favors Buyers in this market; however, my advice will not be to try to ‘time’ the market. If there is a good deal – go for it! The further price decline may or may not play out. Be active in the market, identify properties, and start putting in bids to maximize negotiability while the market favors.

The facts are: supply is falling, pending sales are showing signs of nearing a bottom formation, the market pulse is showing a bottom formation, mortgage rates have fallen, and the latest mixed price action data is, at the very least, suggesting we are no longer in active decline. Recent data flow data suggest this is as good as it gets for buyers until something on the outside forces us onto a different path.

Have questions about NYC market forecasts, trends, or anything else real estate-related? I'd love to connect - dont hesitate to schedule an appointment.

Brooklyn Report

Queens Report

Data Source: UrbanDigs

The Sondhi Team: Nishant is a Real Estate salesperson in Manhattan and Brooklyn and the Founder of the Sondhi Team, and his team specializes in Residential Real Estate. He is passionate about helping buyers and sellers navigate the New York market, save them thousands of dollars, time and make the process enjoyable. His strong analytical, marketing, and negotiation skills developed during his MBA and over 10 years of sales experience give him a unique edge to best serve his clients.