Who Needs 'Saw 8'? Brexit Is U.K, E.U. Horrorshow
This is Wikipedia's definition of the blockbuster Saw horror film franchise: "Rather than killing his victims outright, Jigsaw traps them in situations that he calls "tests" or "games" to test their will to live through physical or psychological torture."
With the eighth installment timed for Halloween weekend release, I'm feeling that we in Europe have been living a similar metaphorical nightmare since June 23rd, 2016, when Britons decided to hack themselves off the European body.
When there are so many issues pressing down on Europe - terrorism, refugee immigration, continued pain from the financial meltdown, resurgent populism, xenophobia, anti-semitism - that the political, economic and social attentions of leaders must be diverted to managing the consequences of Britain's self-destructive decision feels like slow and steady torture.
Consider these recent headlines:
"Ministers haggle over 2,000 new staff as Brexit tests civil service."
"Brexit war of words heats up as 'enemy' E.U. tells Britain to pay up."
"U.K.'s finance minister Hammond regrets calling EU 'enemy'."
"Ministers suppressed report showing UK risked role as ‘world-leading research nation’."
"Dutch bank estimates hard Brexit would strike a hit worth 4.5 percentage points of GDP."
"Pound takes a knock on declaration of ‘deadlock’ in Brexit talks."
And the headline of the day on Saturday, October 15th: "Brexit poll shows rising number of people regret UK decision to leave E.U."
That poll conducted by the non-partisan YouGov finds that 47% of Britons believe it was "wrong" to vote to leave versus 42% who say it was "right." And a full two-thirds believe the Brexit negotiations - the fifth round just completed - are going badly, up from one-third in March.
Labor Member of Parliament Steve Reed tweeted that the poll was “another sign public opinion is turning against Brexit now the reality of how damaging it is becomes clearer.”
Yes, well, what a surprise. The Brexit chickens are clucking on their way to home to roost. A campaign that was largely based on lies, distortions, manipulation and phony numbers by Brexit supporters now grinds against the reality that Boris Johnson's promise that Britain 'can have its cake and eat it, too' was as false as the rest of the campaign.
When the fifth round of exit talks ended this week, E.U. lead negotiator Michel Barnier complained of a "disturbing deadlock" over the issue of British payments on their way out the door. That push-me, pull-you has been at the center of the discussions since they started and their progress so far has not been encouraging.
Unsurprisingly, Britain wants to pay less - a lot less - than the E.U. demands for the country to make its way out with trade and commercial agreements that would characterize a proverbial "soft exit."
And even if Britain can negotiate its way to that soft landing when the E.U. door shuts on it in 2019, it still faces the reality of renegotiating at least 759 treaties, by the count of The Financial Times, to replace those currently under the single E.U. purview for all its members and that cover most external aspects of their joint economy, from antitrust to data sharing, fishing rights to components for nuclear plants and fuel, and trade deals from Turkey to Switzerland and beyond.
British politics have been roiled non-stop since the Brexit campaign ended, with the fall of one prime minister, David Cameron (who will likely go down in history for one of the worst political miscalculations in modern times), the increasingly desperate attempts by his successor to maintain her position, her cabinet at war with itself and her party riven by conflicts.
The deeper it goes, the more the ripples spread outwards - and it gets personal for millions of Europeans and European residents. What will be the resolution for the three million Europeans living in the U.K. and the 1.2 million Brits in Europe?
For millions of people, the consequences are far-reaching and in most ways still unknown. In my family alone, my nephew's E.U. funding for a doctorate at a Scottish university gets frozen post-Brexit and his slot lost. Both my European-citizen adult sons living in the U.K. struggle to make long-term professional and personal plans until their fates in the U.K. can be known.
So much energy devoted to a situation that never should have happened in the first place when so many other issues demand immediate focus to help shape an ever-more worrisome future both for Britain and the E.U.
Meanwhile, here's my favorite Brexit update of the day: Prime Minister Theresa May, who has been promising a Brexit that would leave Britain stronger than ever, was pressed during a radio interview to answer how she would vote in a second Brexit referendum. "I don't answer hypothetical questions," she said, dancing around the question before noting that she had voted to remain first time around.
Fair enough. But the brave thought to follow, in my view, would be this: "I believe the country made a mistake in voting to leave. But I lead this country and I must lead with the hand I was dealt and make the best of it possible for Britain and the E.U."
Instead, this: "I could sit here and I could say 'I would still vote remain or I'd vote leave just to give you an answer to that question. I'm being open and honest with you."
Yes, very open.
This article, Who Needs 'Saw 8'? Brexit Is U.K., E.U. Horrorshow, first appeared in Forbes.
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