Rep. Adam Schiff maintains a large lead in the race to represent California in the U.S. Senate, a new poll released Thursday shows.
Steve Garvey, former baseball star and the Republican candidate for the Golden State’s open Senate seat on the November ballot, was behind the Southern California Democrat by 20 points in the latest poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, which shows 33% of likely voters favoring him. Schiff, who won the March primary, had support from 53% of likely voters.
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“It looks to me like a pretty typical Democrat versus Republican general election” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll. DiCamillo thinks Schiff is in a “very comfortable position,” largely because of the political breakdown of the state’s voters. “If you’re the Democrat, all you really need to do is get above 80% of the Democratic rank and file…and not lose the independents, and he’s actually leading among the no party preference voters almost two to one.”
Schiff’s 20 points lead is an increase from the last poll from Berkeley IGS conducted in February, which showed Schiff with a 15 point lead.
Garvey’s drop in the polls is a counterpoint to his campaign’s strong showing in the latest fundraising totals, where he outraised Schiff. Garvey’s campaign reported raising over $5.4 million in the second quarter of 2024, while Schiff’s campaign raised $4.2 million during the same period.
The poll’s authors found that likely voters fall largely along party lines, with about nine out of 10 Republicans preferring Garvey, and 84% of Democrats preferring Schiff. Independent voters in the state are also leaning toward Schiff. Among voters not affiliated with the two major parties, more than half said they would vote for Schiff, with just a quarter preferring Garvey.
Berkeley IGS conducted the poll online from July 31 to August 11, in both English and Spanish. They queried 3,765 Californians considered likely to vote in the state’s November 2024 general election.
There will be two more updates on this race from the Berkeley IGS Poll, according to DiCamillo, likely in late September and then in the days before election day, but Garvey has an uphill battle, against California’s demographics, if he hopes to win the race.
“It’s the reason a lot of Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in over 10 years,” DiCamillo said. “It’s just the numbers are working against the Republicans, no matter who you put up there.”
