Kemi Badenoch is the overwhelming favourite among grassroots Tories to take over from Rishi Sunak.
A survey of Conservative Party members found she is well ahead of her rivals to become leader after last week's election drubbing. Members will eventually decide the winner of a messy leadership race after MPs narrow it down to two.
Researchers found that 31% of those who already have a preferred candidate want former Business Secretary Ms Badenoch in charge. That is double the support for fellow right-winger Suella Braverman and centrist Tom Tugendhat, who were on 16% and 15% respectively.
Ms Badenoch reportedly stunned colleagues by ripping into Rishi Sunak at the first shadow cabinet meeting since last week's disastrous election result. She is claimed to have told him that his D-Day blunder cost figures like Penny Mordaunt their seats.
A survey by the Party Members Project, run out of Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University, found Priti Patel and Robert Jenrick are languishing behind on 6% and 7%.
Who do Tory members prefer?
The survey of 725 grassroots Tories found that Ms Badenoch commands almost double the support of her nearest rival, Suella Braverman. However it is unlikely that Ms Braverman will get past the Parliamentary stage of the process.
Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly, who are both seen as more moderate options, poll 15% and 10% respectively.
It found the most popular possible contenders are:
- Kemi Badenoch - 31%
- Suella Braverman - 16%
- Tom Tugendhat - 15%
- James Cleverly - 10%
- Robert Jenrick - 7%
- Priti Patel - 6%
- Victoria Atkins - 2%
How does the Tory leadership race work?
Anyone who was around in 2022 will recall the seemingly never-ending race between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss that eventually saw Ms Truss handed the keys to No10. It wasn't a brilliant advertisement for the membership's judgement, as she tanked the economy and only lasted 49 days.
Before being put before party members, MPs had whittled the contenders down, with Ms Badenoch, Ms Braverman and Mr Tugendhat among those who didn't make the cut.
It is unclear how long it will take this time around. With the Tories now in opposition there is no pressing rush, with many calling for the party to take its time and choose carefully. The two-way race between Ms Truss and Mr Sunak - who was MPs' first choice - took six weeks.
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What has Ms Badenoch been up to?
According to reports, the former Business Secretary made her feelings known at the first shadow cabinet meeting on Tuesday. While others around the table heaped praise on Mr Sunak, Ms Badenoch reportedly made it clear she's not happy.
She ripped into the former PM's decision to call an early election without telling his cabinet, and said the D-Day blunder cost figures like Penny Mordaunt their seats. Ms Badenoch went on to accuse senior Tories of failing to understand the "enormity" of the defeat they'd suffered.
And insiders claimed she'd also said former Home Secretary Suella Braverman appeared to be having a "very public" nervous breakdown. Ms Badenoch stunned colleagues with her fury after other members of the shadow cabinet gave glowing tributes to the outgoing Tory leader.
What's Ms Braverman been up to?
Since the electoral mauling, Ms Braverman has been busy. She jetted off to Washington DC where she gave a speech to the right-wing National Conservativism group on Monday.
She claimed that the Tories failed because they were so liberal, and ranted about the Pride flag flying from Government buildings. And in a video message for the Popular Conservatism group in the UK, she claimed Mr Sunak had been "weak" and "squeamish" about immigration.
She also took a shot at her former underling, Robert Jenrick, questioning his right-wing credentials. She dismissed him as a "centrist, Rishi supporter" as the race for the top job gets messy.
Throwing shade at Mr Jenrick, who was Immigration Minister during her tenure at the Home Office, she wrote: "It's really good that he's moving in a different direction. Wasn't the story that he was sent by Rishi to keep an eye on me in the Home Office?"
How about Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage?
For all his sins, Boris Johnson remains popular among Tory Party members.
If his and Nigel Farage's names are added into the mix, things get a lot more complex. Mr Johnson's support would be 20%, making a big dent on Ms Badenoch, while Mr Farage would be on 10%.
However the Reform UK leader is a divisive figure among Conservative members. The survey found 47% favour a merger between the two parties, while 48% would be against.