Virna Jandiroba vs. Amanda Lemos: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Vegas 94

By Andrew Richardson@AndyLRichardson Jul 20, 2024, 12:15pm EDT

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Strawweight talents Virna Jandiroba and Amanda Lemos will clash TONIGHT (Sat., July 20, 2024) at UFC Vegas 94 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Though I find it to be a hard sell as a main event, this is certainly a quality Strawweight scrap. Jandiroba has won three in a row over quality names to earn a position in the Top Five. In fact, she hasn’t lost since 2021, so perhaps Jandiroba 2.0 is a genuine title threat? This is her chance to sell that prospect, as Lemos is about as dangerous as they come at 125-pounds. Zhang Weili proved too much for the Brazilian back in August 2023, but otherwise, Lemos’ speed and power put her at a significant advantage over most of her division.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Jandiroba vs. Lemos Betting Odds

Virna Jandiroba victory: +110
Virna Jandiroba via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Virna Jandiroba via submission: TBD
Virna Jandiroba via decision: TBD
Amanda Lemos victory: -130
Amanda Lemos via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Amanda Lemos via submission: TBD
Amanda Lemos via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Jandiroba Wins

Jandiroba is an excellent jiu-jitsu black belt. Her boxing has developed reasonably over the years, but her wheelhouse will always be taking down opponents and advancing position in pursuit of the submission.

How is that likely to play out here? It really depends on cage positioning. In the open, Jandiroba will be hampered by a speed disadvantage and likely have trouble getting the timing of her shots. If she can land a couple jabs and maneuver Lemos towards the fence, however, she’s quite good at chain wrestling. In a longer, more technical wrestling exchange, Jandiroba can likely drag her foe to the floor.

Once on top, Jandiroba can dominate this fight.

If the takedown fails to materialize, Jandiroba needs to take a page from former foe Mackenzie Dern’s playbook. She ain’t beating Lemos on the fight, so jumping guard or diving for leg locks is a better play than hanging around upright and waiting to get blasted.

How Lemos Wins

It’s honestly remarkable how fast and powerful Lemos is at 37 years of age. Every since she dropped to Strawweight, she’s been an immediate factor in the division simply because she can actually hurt her opponents and they cannot bother her. It’s almost unfair!

In her last bout, Lemos did great work in patiently taking apart Mackenzie Dern. She didn’t just wade in and throw bombs against the grappler, which risks giving up easy takedowns. Instead, she chopped apart Dern’s lead leg, left her desperate and wild, then started wailing away with huge punches.

It worked really well then and it should work really well here! Lemos can use her quickness and athleticism to land first, and it won’t take many clean kick connections to severely limit the movement of Jandiroba. Once that happens, the athleticism gap will only widen, and Lemos will be left a sitting duck.

Jandiroba vs. Lemos Prediction

Both athletes have clear paths to victory, but I expect Lemos is the woman able to implement her game plan.

To be frank, the athleticism gap is simply way too wide for me to even consider picking Jandiroba here. Maybe I’m overestimating this aspect of the fight, but I expect “Carcara” to look like she’s fighting underwater in comparison to Lemos. Lemos may not have the jiu-jitsu of Jandiroba, but how is that going to matter if Jandiroba can never get a hold of her? If Lemos keeps her feet moving and chooses her weapons wisely — which, again, she just did against Dern — then she should be able to very safely put an absolute beating on Jandiroba.

I don’t think this one sees the judges. The damage adds up over time, and Lemos scores a knockout win sometime in the championship rounds.

Prediction: Lemos via TKO/KO/DQ ()