UPDATE (July 8, 10:32 a.m. ET) Hurricane Beryl made landfall near the coastal town of Matagorda, Texas, about 85 miles south-southwest of Houston on the Gulf coast Monday morning. Sustained winds were 80 mph and the National Hurricane called the high winds and potential floods a life-threatening situation.
Given the extreme weather we’re seeing across the country — flooding rains in Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota, excessive heat warnings on the West Coast and in the south-central U.S. — the approach of a destructive Hurricane Beryl this early in the hurricane season doesn’t exactly come as a surprise. After all, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast the highest number of storms ever for the 2024 hurricane season: 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.
Still, Beryl, which had already killed at least seven people in the Caribbean as it approached Jamaica as a Category 4 storm Wednesday, is shocking for the records it has broken. Let's start with the fact that it became a hurricane on at 5 p.m. Saturday 720 miles east-southeast of Barbados, making it, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane researcher, the farthest east a hurricane has developed in the Atlantic in June.
In Grenada, the prime minister called Beryl’s impact “Armageddon-like.”
At 11:35 a.m. Sunday, when its winds hit 130 mph, Beryl made history as the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record. Then it became the earliest Category 5 and the strongest July hurricane we’ve ever seen.
In Grenada, where at least three people were killed and many homes were destroyed, the prime minister called Beryl’s impact “Armageddon-like.”
Though it had weakened somewhat as it approached Jamaica on Wednesday, on Tuesday it had maximum winds of 165 mph for at least six hours, beating the 160 mph record Emily set July 17, 2005.
As a meteorologist who worked for 45 years in New Orleans, I certainly can’t forget hurricane season 2005. That’s the year hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit Louisiana, Hurricane Wilma hit the Florida Peninsula, and, for the first time, we had so many named storms that we exceeded the list of that year’s names and had to use six Greek letters to label the storms. That was the most active storm season we’d ever seen — until 2020, when we needed nine Greek letters.
The storms that hit us are getting stronger, most likely because of warmer ocean temperatures. Look at Ida, Laura, Michael and Harvey as examples. In addition to that, they are developing rapidly. They can go from tropical depressions to major hurricanes inside three days.
Hurricane Michael was a tropical depression on Oct. 7, 2018, and on Oct. 10 it made landfall at Mexico Beach, Florida, as a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph. People who weren't paying attention to the changing forecast were caught off-guard. That’s why meteorologists always tell you to check on the forecast at least daily, because forecasts change quickly.
That storms are rapidly intensifying before they make landfall is scary enough, but they’re also taking longer to diminish in intensity after they make landfall and causing major impacts well inland.
Look at Hurricane Ida, which made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana, on Aug. 29, 2021, the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. That’s scary enough. But Ida made landfall with winds of 150 mph. The previous year Hurricane Laura made landfall near Lake Charles, Louisiana, with 150 mph winds. Before then, you would have had to go back to 1856 to the Last Island Hurricane to find a storm with winds of 150 mph. Major hurricanes are happening more often now.
I suggest that in looking at a National Hurricane Center forecast, plan as if a storm one category higher in strength will actually hit.
They are also decreasing in intensity after landfall at a slower rate. Ida was still a Category 4 storm inland by Houma, and it was even at Category 2 on the opposite side of Lake Pontchartrain from New Orleans.
Hurricane Laura, which landed in 2020 as a Category 4 storm at Cameron, Louisiana, maintained hurricane strength almost as far north as Shreveport and entered Arkansas as a tropical storm. I suggest that when people see a National Hurricane Center forecast, they plan as if a storm one category higher in strength will actually hit.
That guidance is especially important for people along our Gulf Coast to keep in mind. Texas Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd said in a statement, “While Texans take time to enjoy the holiday weekend with family and friends, it’s important to stay weather aware, pay close attention to the rapidly-changing forecasts, and don’t be caught without an emergency plan.”
NOAA predicted such an awful 2024 hurricane season because all the ingredients are there or are expected to be there: Hot sea surface temperatures. An Active West African monsoon. No El Niño and La Niña, which we associate with an absence of wind shear that might tear tropical systems apart, forecast to develop during the August-October peak of hurricane season.
What we’ve seen from Beryl supports that forecast. Klotzbach says that when early-season storm activity occurs in the tropics east of longitude 75 west, it tends to be a harbinger of a very busy season.
Why is Beryl in particular so bad?
Water temperatures are “crunk.” That’s another word for extreme. In this case, the water is hotter than it has ever been at this time of the year. In fact, these are the water temperatures we normally see in September. Water temperatures are running about 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, and warm water is the fuel for tropical development.
It has been almost mesmerizing to me, as a meteorologist, at least, to watch the satellite loop of Beryl intensifying over the west Atlantic into the Caribbean.
Beryl encountered the perfect environment: warm water, moisture through the atmosphere and little wind shear. Beryl was also small with a small, well-organized inner core. Small storms can intensify faster and take advantage of those conditions. In short, Beryl was the perfect storm. And it has been almost mesmerizing to me, as a meteorologist, at least, to watch the satellite loop of Beryl intensifying over the west Atlantic into the Caribbean.
That having been said, Beryl will have major impacts on Jamaica. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a video statement Tuesday, “If you live in a low-lying area, an area that is historically prone to flooding and landslide, or if you live on the banks of a river ... I implore you to evacuate to a shelter or to safer ground.”
This is where we are one month into hurricane season. So far, we have had tropical storms Alberto and Chris and Beryl and a major hurricane, Beryl. And what’s scary is that we aren’t even in the active part of the season yet.
I’ve known a lot of hurricanes: Betsy, Camille, Charley, Ivan, Katrina, Ike, Laura, Delta, Zeta, Ida and all the ones in between. I’ve seen relatively inactive seasons that had major hurricanes — like Andrew in 1992. I’ve seen active hurricane seasons that had no impacts on my area, as was the case last year. Active seasons don't tell us where a hurricane will hit. Active seasons mean that statistically there is a greater chance of impact. But with my experience, when I see early major development as with Beryl this year, I get concerned.