What Are the Odds a Meteorite Could Kill You?
Rumors of a space rock accident in India raise the question of how common this is.
As scientists investigate a reported death from a meteorite strike in southern India over the weekend, we wondered about the probability of such a fatal accident. Most people have the sense that meteorite strikes on people are exceedingly rare, but how rare? (As of Wednesday morning, NASA has cast serious doubt on the reports from India, saying the more likely culprit was a land-based explosion.)
Regardless of the final story in India, a meteorite is a piece of rock that strikes the Earth from outer space. The most famous case in the U.S. happened in 1954, when Ann Hodges was hit by a space rock in Sylacauga, Alabama.
The softball-sized hunk of black rock crashed through her ceiling while she was napping on her couch, hitting her in the side. Hodges later fought with her landlord over ownership of the rock and suffered a nervous breakdown.
In October 1992, a meteorite that caused a bright fireball across the sky hit a woman's parked car in Peekskill, New York. In 1825, people reported that a man was killed and a woman was injured by a meteorite in Oriang, India, although scholars have not been able to confirm the incident.
In 1827, a man was said to be injured after being struck in the arm by a space rock in Mhow, India. Other reports list cattle or horses killed by meteorites. A meteorite disrupted a wedding party in 1929 and a funeral in 1924. Perhaps even more strangely, in 2007, Peruvian villagers were sickened after a meteorite impact released toxic arsenic fumes from the ground.
A large meteorite exploded above central Russia in 2013 with a force 20 to 30 times the Hiroshima bomb injured 1,200 people, mostly from broken glass, and caused $33 million in damage (see pictures).
Still, injuries from space rock incidents remain extremely rare. (See pictures of shooting stars.)
"You have a better chance of getting hit by a tornado and a bolt of lightning and a hurricane all at the same time," Michael Reynolds, a Florida State College astronomer and author of the book Falling Stars: A Guide to Meteors & Meteorites, previously told National Geographic.
Doing the Math: Meteorite Strikes
Putting a probability number on the chances of being hit by a space rock is difficult, since the events are so rare. Still, Tulane University earth sciences professor Stephen A. Nelson published a paper in 2014 that made the effort. He put the lifetime odds of dying from a local meteorite, asteroid, or comet impact at 1 in 1,600,000.
Compared with 1 in 90 for a car accident, 1 in 250 for a fire, 1 in 60,000 for a tornado, 1 in 135,000 for lightning, 1 in 8 million for a shark attack, or 1 in 195 million for winning the PowerBall lottery.
Nelson put the risk of dying from a large, global asteroid or comet impact at 1 in 75,000. If that seems surprisingly high, it's because when massive objects have hit the Earth in the geologic past, they have wiped out millions of organisms, even whole species. Most of the creatures aren't killed from the direct impact, but from the aftereffects, which include heat, radiation, and dust that clouds out the sun.
Astronomer Alan Harris made a similar calculation, finding that a human being has a 1 in 700,000 chance of getting killed by an impact from space in their lifetime, with most of the risk coming from a large-scale event.
It's unclear what evidence will emerge from this week's incident in India, but if it does prove to have been a meteorite, it will be remembered as a highly unusual accident.
Related Topics
You May Also Like
Go Further
Animals
- We now know why Florida fish spin in circles until they dieWe now know why Florida fish spin in circles until they die
- 5 clever animals that treat and prevent their own illnesses5 clever animals that treat and prevent their own illnesses
- What would the world look like without mosquitoes?What would the world look like without mosquitoes?
- Social media loves to villainize dolphins. Here's why it's wrong.Social media loves to villainize dolphins. Here's why it's wrong.
Environment
- This little bird tells the story of the East Coast’s disappearing marshesThis little bird tells the story of the East Coast’s disappearing marshes
- ‘Corn sweat’—and other weird weather phenomena—explained‘Corn sweat’—and other weird weather phenomena—explained
History & Culture
- Your favorite foods have surprising global originsYour favorite foods have surprising global origins
- How did ancient Egyptian obelisks end up all over the world?How did ancient Egyptian obelisks end up all over the world?
- What we’ve learned—and lost—since the Titanic wreck was foundWhat we’ve learned—and lost—since the Titanic wreck was found
- Did Babe Ruth really ‘call’ this legendary home run?Did Babe Ruth really ‘call’ this legendary home run?
- The real history behind the legend of China's Monkey KingThe real history behind the legend of China's Monkey King
Science
- How much fiber do you need to reduce your cancer risk?How much fiber do you need to reduce your cancer risk?
- Experts explain what drives hair loss and how to fix itExperts explain what drives hair loss and how to fix it
- 8 things we’ve learned about how alcohol harms the body8 things we’ve learned about how alcohol harms the body
- Is mouth taping the secret to a better night's sleep?Is mouth taping the secret to a better night's sleep?
Travel
- Summer doesn’t have to end yet with these fall getawaysSummer doesn’t have to end yet with these fall getaways
- Fall is the best time to visit these 10 national parksFall is the best time to visit these 10 national parks
- An inside guide to Dubai, where the city meets the desert
- Paid Content
An inside guide to Dubai, where the city meets the desert
