With the All-Star Game in the rear-view mirror, time to check in on the division races, the pennant hopefuls, and of course their respective odds to claim titles. Today’s edition of Bet the EDGE took a look at the races and relayed their plays for all.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) dove into the American League East race between the Orioles (+115) and the Yankees (-135).
“I look at the current projected standings at the end of this year and the Yankees and the Orioles are about tied, and I’m having trouble figuring out exactly how the Yankees are going to get better without just committing to a very different spending plan going forward, particularly on the arms that they have available. I am not sure that the upside is really there in New York the way it is for the Orioles, unless the young guys for the Yankees all just continue to just shred.”
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) agrees the Yankees are in trouble as currently constructed.
“I think it’s the right idea that the Yankees are vulnerable, just with the fragility that they’ve shown in the rotation lately. They really needed Cole, Stroman, Rodon, their three kind of vet, big name pitchers to deliver, and I think they’ve all been pretty bad so far.”
The boys see similarities between the O’s and the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder. Croucher explained.
“The Orioles have a little 2023-24 Oklahoma City Thunder in them, where they should be pushing chips in to go for it now, because they’re so close, and if they just make a couple of pitching upgrades, they might be the clear best team in the American League, but there’s no trust that they’re actually going to do that. it’s the same thing where if you’re the Thunder, why didn’t you just trade for Daniel Gafford or something? Why was your big move at the deadline Gordon Hayward? You can win the title this year. You can make the Finals this year. I’m just going to keep our assets for now. And I fear that might be happening with the Orioles. They could trade some of their surplus outfielders, of which they have several, for a real, upgraded starting pitcher. Then I think they become really compelling.”
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So what is the play when looking at these two teams?
“So at price, I prefer to be on the Orioles. But what I would say is the best way to bet into that (market) is to…just to pay attention as the season goes on in terms of how the market is treating, how that division is shifting, and whether they’re shifting the pennant odds in accordance with that. The winner of that division is almost certainly going to get a bye, and it looks like the other bye is probably going to go to the AL Central winner, who’s probably not going to be that scary. So whoever wins the division out of the Yankees and Orioles should be the favorite to win the American League.”
Currently the Yankees (+265) are favored to claim the American League with the Orioles (+370) nipping at their heels.
The conversation shifted to the race in the AL West. The Astros (+100) continue to battle the injury bug but have climbed back into the race against a Mariners’ team (+110) gives up few runs but also scores few runs.
Without even considering the team’s pedigree, Dinsick is on board with Houston ultimately claiming the West title.
“My numbers say the Astros are the better team. They have been the more injured team to this point in the season, and presumably will get some balance or benefit, or at least regression in terms of health luck from here to close.”
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Jay agrees and does take into account the teams’ respective histories.
“I think the Astros should be the slight favorite in this market. They just have more upside…The Mariners, famously, just do not spend even though the offense has been pretty abominable for years now. The Mariners have all the pitching in the world, but the offense is a slog…Kyle Tucker is about to come back, and he was playing for a stretch in the season, he should have been the MVP front runner. So, I think there’s just more talent on the Astros. The Mariners should have put them to bed when they had the chance.”
Dinsick succinctly summed up their conversation regarding the AL East and West races.
“So between the two plus money dogs and those divisions, you get them both, you’re happy. You split them, you’re slightly, slightly ahead. You lose them both, you’re in trouble.”
To listen to the entire episode and looks at the NL East and Pennant, click here.
