Tim Leonard
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What is happening to house prices in the UK?
House prices in the UK have been described as “subdued” after slipping lower in June. The latest Halifax data shows the average UK house price fell to £288,455 last month, a decrease of 0.2% compared with May. The bank said values had been “relatively flat” for three months in a row, though prices remained 1.6% higher compared with a year earlier.
The figures contrast slightly with the latest Nationwide data, which showed property prices increased by 0.2% during June. Rightmove recently reported that prices set by home sellers in the UK dropped during July. And the latest Land Registry data, which lags behind other indices but tends to be the most trusted housing market barometer, showed UK house prices increased for the second month in a row in April.
| Nationwide | Halifax | Rightmove | Land Registry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average house price | £266,064 | £288,455 | £373,493 | £281,373 |
| Monthly change | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.4% | +0.3% |
| Annual change | +1.5% | +1.6% | +0.4% | +1.1% |
| Figures for | June 2024 | June 2024 | July 2024 | April 2024 |
| Methodology | Based on Nationwide mortgage transactions | Based on Lloyds Banking Group mortgage transactions | Based on asking prices of newly marketed properties | Based on official completed house sales data |
Average UK property prices
The average house price is £298,229 in England, £208,184 in Wales, and £190,345 in Scotland, according to Land Registry data for April 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, average property prices in Northern Ireland reached £178,499.
On a regional basis, the highest average house prices in England in April 2024 were in London (£502,000) and the South East (£375,000). The lowest average house prices were in the North East (£158,000).
Latest house price changes across the UK
The direction and pace of house price changes differ across the UK. Average house prices in England in April 2024 increased by 0.3% compared with the previous month, while in Scotland prices increased by 1.3%. However, in Wales, prices fell 2.1% month-on-month, according to the latest Land Registry data.
On an annual basis, average house prices are 0.6% higher in England and 0.4% higher in Wales compared with a year earlier. Property prices in Scotland are 4.5% higher year-on-year. In Northern Ireland, monthly prices were 0.4% higher and annual prices were 4.0% higher in Q1 (January-March) 2024.
| UK | England | Scotland | Wales | Northern Ireland | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average house price | £281,373 | £298,229 | £190,345 | £208,184 | £178,499 |
| One year earlier | £278,252 | £296,415 | £182,070 | £207,416 | £173,917 |
| Annual change | +1.1% | +0.6% | +4.5% | +0.4% | +4.0% |
| Monthly change | +0.3% | +0.3% | +1.3% | -2.1% | +0.4% |
Source: HM Land Registry. Figures for England, Scotland and Wales are for April 2024. Figures for Northern Ireland are for Q1 2024.
How property prices are changing where you live
Average house prices are higher in most regions of England compared to a year ago. The largest annual increase has been seen in the North West, where property values are 3.8% higher than 12 months earlier. The next biggest annual rise is in the West Midlands (+2.0%).
London saw the largest annual fall (-3.9%) in property prices in April. Prices in the capital also fell 0.2% compared with March. The largest month-on-month fall was in Yorkshire and the Humber (-1.4%), while the biggest monthly increase was in the South East (+1.4%).
Are house prices falling?
The latest house price data suggests prices are relatively stable. Halifax figures showed typical property prices dropped 0.2% lower in June, while Nationwide reported values had increased by 0.2%.
Property prices, and the direction and pace of price movements, change all the time. However, there are signs that the underlying trend of steadily rising property prices that has generally been the norm in recent years may have resumed.
UK house price forecasts 2024 and beyond
Predictions as to what will happen to UK house prices in 2024 are mixed. Some forecasts suggest property prices will rise in 2024, while others predict they will fall.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Economics | +3.0% | +5.0% | – |
| Knight Frank | +3.0% | +3.0% | +4.0% |
| Office for Budget Responsibility | -2.3% | -0.4% | +2.2% |
| Savills | +2.5% | +3.5% | +4.5% |
Expert UK housing market predictions
Richard Donnell, Executive Director, Zoopla
“The housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs and the summer slowdown is now arriving, tempering activity. The timing of the first cut in the base rate is key and will give a boost to market sentiment and sales activity. All regions and countries of the UK have registered an increase in house prices on a month-on-month basis since January. But price rises are unlikely to pick up speed in the coming months.”
Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages, Halifax
“Mortgage affordability is still the biggest challenge facing both homebuyers and those coming to the end of fixed-term deals. This issue is likely to be eased gradually, through a combination of lower interest rates, rising incomes, and more restrained growth in house prices. While in the short-term the housing market is delicately balanced and sensitive to the pace of change to Base Rate, based on our current expectations property prices are likely to rise modestly through the rest of this year and into 2025.”
Tarrant Parsons, Senior Economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
“Although activity across the housing market remained subdued last month, forward looking aspects did improve slightly. There are some factors emerging now that could support a recovery in the months ahead. If the Bank of England does decide that the current inflation backdrop is benign enough to start loosening monetary policy next month, this may prompt a further softening in lending rates. In addition, the recent election delivered a clear outcome, with housing pushed up the political agenda.”
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Is now a good time to buy a house?
Financially, the best time to buy a house is when mortgage rates and house prices are both low. In reality, the chances of this happening, and being able to time a purchase right, are slim. So instead, it’s important to find a property and mortgage you can afford without overstretching.
While mortgage rates have dropped since the middle of last year, they remain significantly higher than through most of the 2010s and early 2020s. Simply put, mortgages aren’t as affordable as a few years ago.
If your funds are tight, waiting for rates to come down may be your only option. Encouragingly, mortgage rates are predicted to fall in the near future, as a cut in the base rate nears. Earlier in the year, there were suggestions that house prices could fall this year, which would help improve affordability further. However, in recent months, some of these forecasts have been revised and now predict property prices will rise.
Ultimately, it’s impossible to predict with any certainty what will happen to house prices and the cost of mortgages.
Because of this, whether now is a good time to buy a property or not largely depends on your circumstances, priorities and outlook. Getting mortgage advice can help you figure out the numbers. But the ultimate decision to buy now or wait will rest with you.
» MORE: Check current mortgage rates
UK House Price FAQs
The average house price in the UK was £281,373 in April 2024, up from £278,252 a year earlier, according to the latest HM Land Registry UK House Price Index. This means UK property prices are 1.1% higher than a year before, and 0.3% higher month-on-month.
Some house price forecasts predict property prices will fall in 2024, while others predict they will rise. Sentiment has also recently changed among some commentators. For example, Savills started the year by predicting house prices would fall 3% during 2024, but now thinks property values will end the year 2.5% higher.
The number of new properties being put up for sale slowed in June. This brought to an end a run of six consecutive months where new property listings had been increasing, according to RICS. At the same time, surveyors said they were seeing fewer enquiries from prospective home buyers, suggesting weaker demand. Higher mortgage rates, increases in the cost of living, and weakened market confidence have all combined to dampen the housing market in the past year. However, there have been some signs that the market may be picking up.
It is taking home sellers on average 59 days to find a buyer, according to the latest Rightmove data. It means the time it takes to sell a property has fallen for five months in a row. However, a year ago, it was taking a shorter time of 55 days to secure a buyer.
The average discount secured by home buyers on asking prices was £10,000 – or 3.9% – in March, according to Zoopla. In November last year, buyers were achieving an average discount of £14,250 or 4.5%. The property website said the fall is a result of sellers setting more realistic prices at the outset and more confidence among buyers.
There are several house price reports and indices published each month that provide insight into house price trends and the housing market in the UK. Four of the most respected indices are published by HM Land Registry, Rightmove, Halifax and Nationwide, each showing how property prices are changing from month to month and on an annual basis. However, as each index tends to be based on different data and may be calculated in different ways, they often show different average house prices and changes when compared with one another.
Land Registry sold house price data is usually considered one of the most accurate housing market barometers because it is based on completed property sales, and includes cash purchases, as well as properties bought using a mortgage. However, because it is collated in this way, the data tends to be around two months behind other indices.
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