As a Trump voter, nothing surprised me about President Joe Biden's debate performance. In 2020, Biden's capacities were touch and go at best. The weight of the presidency has only diminished him further. What did surprise me was the deluge of calls on the Left for Biden to step aside. Even after a bad debate, Joe Biden still gives Democrats the best chance of victory come November.
The first reason Biden scares me as a Trump voter is rather simple: Republicans have never beaten Biden and his political machine.
Democrats appear to have forgotten that Biden is the president. In choosing him, Democratic primary voters in 2020 chose a moderate, establishment figure with strong bona fides among important Democratic voting blocs, like Black Americans, who could still appeal to more culturally conservative white working-class voters on economic issues. This choice was the right one; Biden flipped Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona on his way to the White House. Not only did he win—he beat the same guy he's squaring off against in 2024.
Granted, Republicans down ballot did manage to outperform expectations in 2020. In its final election prediction, FiveThirtyEight's model predicted Democrats would not only hold but expand their majority in the House. Democrats lost 13 seats to Republicans. As for the Senate, FiveThirtyEight projected Democrats would take back the majority with an average of 51.5 seats. When the dust settled, the Senate was 50-50.
Despite struggles down the ballot, Biden won the race that mattered most. By winning the White House, he also secured control of the Senate for the Democrats. And, two years later, with Republicans projected to take the House and Senate, Biden's blue wall held against the predicted "red wave."
Sure, the polls don't look good for Biden now, and they could get worse in the coming days. But leading in the polls in July is not the same as winning on election night—just ask Hillary Clinton. Before Democrats ditch Biden, they ought to be able to point to a single, tangible loss at the president's hands. There isn't one. That's enough to scare me, and should be enough reason to keep Biden on the ticket.
Yet the calls to replace Biden have become so vociferous, it's worth considering the alternatives. None will fare better than Biden in the states that matter.
After the debate, reporters pestered California Governor Gavin Newsom with questions about stepping in for Biden. Newsom said the proposal was "nonsensical." He's right. The little polling data available suggest he would perform worse than Biden in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—swing states that would grant Trump the Electoral College votes he needs to win.
For many swing-state voters, Newsom represents Californication. That's especially the case in Arizona, where more than 140,000 Californians moved in 2021 and 2022—many of whom consider themselves post-COVID political refugees. The same goes for rust-belt states where Newsom's environmental policies, more progressive than the president's, will not play well.
Newsom also does not have Biden's pull with crucial Democratic constituencies. In Newsom's 2021 recall election in California, he lost ground with not only black voters but Latino voters and white voters without a college degree. That bodes poorly for the governor, especially in swing states like Georgia.
The same can be said for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, another potential Biden replacement who has reportedly disavowed Biden replacement theory. The polling doesn't look good for her either. A snap poll from the progressive think tank Data for Progress taken after the debate found that like Biden, Whitmer trails Trump.
The biggest problem for Newsom and Whitmer, however, is the most obvious choice to replace Biden: Vice President Kamala Harris. Could Democrats get away with replacing Biden with someone other than the current VP—someone who represents key Democratic constituencies and could be the first Black female president? Unlikely.
Would Democrats even want to? Harris' favorability ratings are an average of 16.3 points underwater, which makes her almost as unfavorable as the sitting president. The little polling available for a Trump-versus-Harris head-to-head shows Harris down in every swing state except Michigan.
All three potential Biden replacements would be a boon for Trump. In his 2024 campaign, Trump has distanced himself from abortion to seem more moderate. He's rebuffed the "conservative" label, opting instead for the tag "common sense." When your opponent has considered himself the embodiment of the center Left for the past half-century, that's not an easy trick to pull off. Newsom, Whitmer, or Harris makes that sleight of hand easier.
The one candidate Democrats could replace Biden with and potentially get away with it is Michelle Obama. She remains immensely popular not only with Democrats, but with the American public writ large. At the end of President Barack Obama's tenure, the former first lady was even more popular than he was.
Mrs. Obama has proven herself an adept and powerful political force, but subbing in just four months before an election is a lot to ask of even the most politically gifted. While the issues with the aforementioned Biden replacements are voter driven, the challenges that Mrs. Obama would face have more to do with the internal dynamics of the Democratic Party.
Upon winning the presidency, one way Biden sought to get out from President Obama's shadow was through personnel. Biden kept his inner circle close and eschewed Obama-friendly picks. Ron Klain was named White House chief of staff. Janet Yellen was chosen as Treasury Secretary over Obama world's Lael Brainard. Biden installed longtime aide and friend Tony Blinken atop the State Department, and went with Gen. Lloyd Austin over Obama Defense undersecretary Michèle Flournoy for the Pentagon.
Now Biden world and Obama world are nearly at each other's throats. Obama alumni have been harshly critical of Biden's Israel policy, which former Obama staffers have decried as immoral and electorally unwise. They have also been very critical of the Biden campaign. While Obama became notorious for shunning the traditional Democratic apparatus in favor of his own machine, the Biden campaign continues to partner heavily with the Democratic National Committee in his reelection efforts. The old party institutions have reciprocated by putting rules in place throughout the primary process that protect Biden from precisely the kind of coup d'etat being floated now. Even if Democratic Party elites agree to replace Biden, they could face a full-fledged revolt from the thousands of Biden campaign field operatives and volunteers who joined the campaign that bears the incumbent's name and carries out the day-to-day operations at the grassroots level. Running anyone other than Biden would require a rebuild that would make Don Shula blush.
Democrats have no choice but to run the sitting president. Biden is simply the strongest candidate they can muster this cycle. That's enough to scare me, and should be enough for them to keep Biden in the race.
Bradley Devlin is the political editor for The American Conservative.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
