Joe Biden's Rock Solid Voters Have Disappeared

Joe Biden appears to be losing the support of people who are certain they will vote in the presidential election, according to polls.

The incumbent Democratic president is set to face his Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump, in November's presidential election, and polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight, with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.

However, there are some signs Biden is losing the support of many of the most committed voters.

According to an analysis of Marist Poll national surveys, the number of people definitely voting in the upcoming election who have indicated they will opt for the Democrat has declined since April.

On April 22, Biden was ahead of Trump by 3 percentage points among the total number of registered voters, but ahead by six percentage points among those who said they will definitely vote in the election.

By May 30, his lead among this group dropped to one percentage point. And as of Tuesday, Trump is leading among definite voters by one percentage point and the pair are tied among overall registered voters.

Newsweek contacted a representative for Biden by email to comment on this story.

However, with less than five months to go until polling day, it is still too early to call the results of the election and experts have cautioned against reading too much into polls.

Speaking to Newsweek, Todd Landman, a professor of political science at Nottingham University in the U.K. said that it is too early to determine whether the shifts are significant.

"It is quite difficult at this stage in the campaign to say whether these shifts in public opinion are significant," he said. "If we assume that there is a 3-point margin of error, then any significance only starts to appear between May and June. It is also important to take into account question wording, where the use of 'definitely' versus 'very likely' can affect the inferences drawn from the surveys.

"The analysis on www.fivethirtyeight.com uses a collection of polls, which shows that Mr. Trump is on 40.8% and President Biden is on 40.2%, while in its projection for the probability of either candidate winning, Mr. Trump's odds of success currently sit at 50 out of 100 and President Biden's odds are 49 out of 100."

He added: "At a national level, therefore, the candidates are truly neck and neck, but for me, the real challenge for both candidates is how well they can do in the swing states and how they are polling among independents and undecided voters, and whether the November election has a high turnout."

Indeed, while national polls are interesting, the race for the White House is likely to be determined by a handful of swing states.

On June 27, Biden and Trump are set to square off in Atlanta for the first of two scheduled debates ahead of the presidential election on November 5.