Kamala Harris Clear Favorite for Democratic Nomination by Betting Markets

Vice President Kamala Harris is the favorite to be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, according to two prominent betting websites.

The Context

The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump took place on June 27 in Atlanta, during which the 81-year-old Democratic incumbent repeatedly appeared to lose his train of thought mid-sentence, sparking renewed concern over his age and mental acumen.

Consequently, Biden faced calls to step down from the race from prominent Democrats, including members of Congress and actor George Clooney, so he could be replaced by another candidate.

In an interview with Black Entertainment Television that was broadcast on Wednesday, Biden said he might "reevaluate" his decision to seek a second term "if I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, 'you got this problem, that problem."

Just hours later, it was announced Biden had tested positive for coronavirus and would be "isolating as I recover."

What We Know

The odds on Harris being the Democratic candidate are 45 percent, ahead of Biden on 40 percent and Michelle Obama on three percent, according to Polymarket.

Separately, the betting website PredictIt also gives Harris a clear lead, selling bets on her becoming the Democratic nominee for 49¢ each, significantly ahead of Biden on 37¢, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer on 8¢, and California Governor Gavin Newsom on 7¢.

Each PredictIt bet is worth $1 if you guess the correct outcome, with bets selling at between 1¢ and 99¢ depending on the probability of an event taking place. The PredictIt website is run out of Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.

Harris also has better odds of winning the 2024 presidential election than Biden according to a number of leading bookmakers. As of 6 a.m. ET, the odds of Harris being elected president in November are 4/1 (20 percent) with both Bet 365 and Sky Bet, compared to 8/1 (11.1 percent) for Biden. William Hill gives Harris odds of 9/2 (18.2 percent) of winning in November against 6/1 (14.3 percent) for Biden, with Trump the firm favorite on 2/5 (71.4 percent)

Newsweek contacted the White House for comment by email on Thursday outside of normal working hours.

Views

Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan, political scientist who teaches at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said Harris is likely to put more emphasis on identity issues than Biden if she's elected as president in November.

He said: "Joe Biden's an East Coast insider, a Beltway political animal. While her key policy stances differ little from the president, his Veep, Kamala Harris is a California liberal, likely to put more emphasis on minorities in areas such as education and housing, on working class welfare programs and on such liberal measures as liberalizing marijuana.

"She's more than 20 years younger than Biden and has a very different energy from him and, of course, is a woman of color. But she's also a lawyer with a long history as a pretty hard-nosed prosecutor. So what the Democrats would get with a Harris candidacy is intriguing: an energized, passionate enigma—the policy-liberal, centrist-prosecutor."