Spaghetti Models, Path for Texas as Tropical Storm Alberto Starts to Form

Meteorologists have issued alerts for southern Texas after the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that a likely tropical storm could cause "life-threatening" floods as it continues to develop.

As of Monday afternoon, the NHC was tracking a broad area of low pressure churning in the Bay of Campeche. Hurricane experts said the storm will likely become Tropical Storm Alberto, with a 70 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, which would make it the first named storm of the season.

Spaghetti models—computer models illustrating potential storm paths—show Mexico bearing the brunt of the storm's landfall, but meteorologists warned that far-southern Texas also could experience strong impact.

"Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast," the NHC said. "Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding."

As of Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Brownsville, Texas, had a gale warning in place, as well as a small craft advisory, rip current statement and coastal flood watch.

"As of 11 AM June 17, the chance of a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm developing through early Wednesday has risen to 70 percent, continuing through Thursday," the NWS said. "Overall, the hazards to the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas ranchlands remain the same, with heavy rainfall and flooding possible Tuesday through Thursday, as well as dangerous beach and marine conditions."

NWS meteorologist Andrei Evbuoma told Newsweek that the biggest concern is flooding. Up to 6 inches of rain is expected for parts of southern Texas through Saturday morning. The highest rainfall is expected on Wednesday with 2 to 3 inches, followed by Thursday with 1 to 1.5 inches.

Evbuoma warned that the storm will be a "high-impact weather event" that could potentially become the biggest storm of the season so far.

Multiple agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have issued forecasts warning that 2024 will be an exceptionally strong year for hurricanes. NOAA's forecast anticipates 17 to 25 named storms, for an above-average hurricane season. Of the 25, eight to 13 will be hurricanes and four to seven will be major hurricanes. The forecast amount of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued in a May outlook.

Several factors are contributing to the storm-heavy predictions this year, including abnormally warm sea surface temperatures and the expectation that El Niño will transition into La Niña by this summer or fall.