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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between July 2 and July 10.
Business activity continued to decline modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -6.6. New orders remained steady, while shipments inched just slightly higher. Delivery times shortened, and supply availability was unchanged. Inventories moved lower. Labor market conditions remained weak, with employment continuing to contract. Input prices increased modestly while selling price increases were quite minor. Firms were fairly optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead.
Manufacturing activity continued to decline modestly in New York State, according to the July survey. The general business conditions index held steady at -6.6. The new orders index was little changed at -0.6, suggesting that orders remained flat, and the shipments index ticked up to 3.9, pointing to a slight increase in shipments. Unfilled orders declined. The inventories index fell to -6.1, indicating that inventories moved lower. The delivery times index remained below zero at -9.2, suggesting that delivery times shortened, while the supply availability index was zero, indicating that supply availability was unchanged.
The index for number of employees came in at -7.9, pointing to another month of employment contraction, while the average workweek index came in around zero, suggesting that hours worked held steady. The prices paid index edged up slightly to 26.5, indicating that input prices continued to rise modestly, while the prices received index came in at 6.1, indicating that selling price increases remained quite minor.
Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook. After climbing sharply last month, the index for future business conditions was just slightly lower at 25.8, with 41 percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. However, the outlook for employment growth remained weak, and capital spending plans remained sluggish.
Tech help: [email protected]
Questions about survey/data: [email protected] or (716) 849-5025
2024
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: [email protected]
Questions about survey/data: [email protected] or (716) 849-5025
