N.J.’s dreams of a white Christmas are quickly melting away

As the snow was piling up high during last week’s big winter storm, hopes were also soaring that this would turn out to be a rare white Christmas in New Jersey.

Now those dreams are quickly melting away — thanks to the pesky sun, mild temperatures and a looming rain storm that could wash away the final traces of snow by Christmas morning.

“I would say most of it, if not all of it, is going to melt,” said Jonathan O’Brien, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s main forecast office in New Jersey.

“I know there’s still a few inches on the ground up north,” he added. “But we’re forecasting temperatures in the mid- to upper 50s tomorrow (Thursday). By the time we get to Christmas morning, I would expect even up north, most of that snow is going to be gone.”

O’Brien is not Scrooge. He’s just a forecaster delivering the bad news for snow lovers all across northern and central New Jersey — where the last widespread white Christmas occurred in 2009. (Some isolated areas of the Garden State had a light coating of snow on the ground on Christmas morning other years since then, but it wasn’t wide enough to be considered a true white Christmas in New Jersey.)

How much snow is left?

In case you’re wondering how much snow is lingering from last week’s storm, as of early Wednesday, here are the grim stats from the National Weather Service and volunteer weather observers who take measurements for the agency.

• Newark Liberty International Airport in Essex County got hit with 11.9 inches of snow last week, but had only 2 inches on the ground Wednesday morning.
• Boonton in Morris County measured 6.2 inches of snow last week, but had just 1 inch of snow on the ground Wednesday morning.
• Mount Holly in Burlington County, where the state’s main weather service office is located, got 6.2 inches of snow last week, with nothing left to measure Wednesday morning.
• Atlantic City International Airport got only a trace of snow last week, and had nothing on the ground Wednesday morning.
• Farther north and west, Allentown, Pennsylvania, received a hefty 13 inches of snow last week, but had only 4 inches on the ground Wednesday morning.
• Philadelphia had 6.6 inches of snow last week, with nothing measured on the ground Wednesday morning.

O’Brien said the Highland Lakes area of Sussex County still had 7 inches of snow on the ground on Tuesday, which likely melted down to 5 or 6 inches by Wednesday morning. But even most of that will probably get washed away by the mild temperatures and heavy rain before Christmas morning.

Andover Township, also in Sussex County, had 6 inches of snow remaining Wednesday morning, according to New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson, whose office is based at Rutgers University.

“These areas have the only hope of having an inch on the ground Friday morning unless the front due here moves faster and drops temperatures by dawn, along with some moisture sticking around behind the front,” Robinson said. “Both seem remote chances at this time.  Even six inches will be difficult to remain if the 50s blowtorch and rain arrives as forecast.”

Holding out hope in NYC

In Central Park in New York City, the 10.5 inches of snow that piled up last week was melted down to 3 inches Wednesday morning. Although it’s a pretty good bet all of that will be gone by Christmas morning, forecaster Tim Morrin from the weather service’s regional office in Upton, N.Y., isn’t totally giving up hope yet.

“If you’re at a wide open airport, you might have more of a melting effect than if you’re in Central Park,” Morrin said Wednesday morning. “If the location is somewhat sheltered, like in the park, there’s a chance.”

Morrin said it’s possible the trees in Central Park could block some of the wind and some of the rain, so the snow might not melt as quickly as it would in an open field.

“I wouldn’t necessarily call it a long shot (for a white Christmas in New York City),” Morrin said. “It just depends on that official observation.”

The official observation in Central Park and other weather monitoring stations overseen by the National Weather Service — including Newark Liberty Airport — is made each morning at 7 a.m., Morrin said. A trained observer will take several measurements of any remaining snow and calculate the average.

The resulting number is the official snow depth that gets added to the weather service’s daily climate records, Morrin said.

Although the National Weather Service doesn’t have an official definition of white Christmas, it follows the guidelines of the World Meteorological Organization, which says 1 inch of snow or more on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25 meets the criteria of a white Christmas.

(Sorry, snow lovers.... Snow drifts don’t count. And neither do piles of snow from snowplows, snowblowers or human shoveling. It has to be a fresh or undisturbed snow pack.)

One little-known fact pointed out by Morrin: Technically, only a half-inch of snow is needed on the ground, because the weather service’s daily snow depth reports get rounded out to the nearest inch. Lingering snow measured at 0.5 inches gets marked down as 1 inch, he said.

So, maybe there is some hope of a white Christmas, after all?

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Len Melisurgo may be reached at [email protected]. Tell us your coronavirus story or send a tip here.