State of the farm system: Ranking the Marlins’ top prospects after the MLB draft

May 17, 2019: Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday watches his home run leave the park during a game between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Pride Park in Lexington, KY. Kevin Schultz/CSM(Credit Image: © Kevin Schultz/CSM via ZUMA Wire) (Cal Sport Media via AP Images)
By Andre Fernandez
Jun 11, 2019

MIAMI — Nasim Nuñez was still a little starstruck Monday afternoon as he took batting practice and fielded ground balls next to the Marlins’ major-league squad.

“It’s crazy because a couple of months ago I was playing with these guys in my video game,” Nuñez said. “Now they’re giving my knowledge no one has ever given me so I’m going to just take it.”

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Nuñez, a slick-fielding, speedy shortstop from Collins Hill High School near Suwanee, Ga., who the Marlins drafted a week earlier in the second round, could be back on that same infield in three or four years if all goes well.

He is the first of the top picks the Marlins made in this year’s draft class that several evaluators have ranked among the best hauls by any of the 30 MLB teams to sign a pro contract, agreeing to a reported $2 million signing bonus.

Assuming they successfully add this substantial influx of talent, which includes top pick JJ Bleday from Vanderbilt and Kameron Misner from Missouri University, we decided to look at where they and a couple of others would rank among a much deeper Marlins farm system.

Here’s a Marlins mock Top 20 ranking the organization’s best prospects based on feedback from scouts as well as evaluators.

1. Sixto Sánchez, RHP, Double-A Jacksonville
Age: 20. Stats: 1-2, 26 1/3 IP, 25 K, 5 BB, 3.42 ERA.

With three plus pitches, Sánchez remains the only prospect in the Marlins system with a definite an ace ceiling if he continues to develop his command. Sánchez didn’t pitch for 10 months after his former organization (the Phillies) shut him down because of elbow inflammation. The Marlins have taken a conservative approach and limited his pitch count to the mid-high 80s in all but one of his seven starts this year.

In his most recent start, Sánchez’s fastball was clocked at 100 mph, and he has been working on mixing speeds on his breaking ball and changeup effectively.

While Sánchez has surrendered 44 hits between Advanced-A Jupiter and Double-A, he has compiled a 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and remains difficult for opposing hitters to square up and drive the ball. Sánchez’s sink on his fastball and curve helps him keep the ball on the ground consistently despite his 26.3 percent line-drive rate by opposing hitters. Barring any setbacks, Sánchez figures to get an opportunity to come up to the majors at some point in 2020.

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2. JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt University (2019 1st round, 4th overall pick)
Age: 21. 2019 college stats: .351/.466/.731, 26 HR, 68 RBI in 245 at-bats.

The Marlins’ focus in this year’s draft was adding hitting talent to a pitching-heavy farm system.

Though the Marlins have not had a great track record when it comes to picking college bats with their first selection, they used several of their picks on players like Bleday who bring more of a hit-first approach and still could bring high reward if their power translates to the pro game.

“I think Bleday can mature into a true hit/power threat and will be a good defender in right, as well,” said Nick Faleris, director of amateur evaluation at 2080 Baseball. “I love the pick. We had him as the third-best talent in the class. He gets to his power easily and brings an impressive, mature approach to the plate. I’m not overly concerned about his swing — saw him with Orleans several times last summer (in the Cape Cod League) and he had no trouble raking with wood bats. He checks all the boxes.”

Baseball America draft analyst Carlos Collazo said: “His set-up at the plate is unique, but it’s worked for him against some of the best competition in the country in the SEC and with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League, so I have no real concerns about that being a problem moving forward.”

The Marlins are expected to sign Bleday soon after Vanderbilt finishes its run in the College World Series this weekend. They may opt to give the 21-year-old some time to rest coming off a long college season. Bleday figures to be advanced enough to warrant starting his pro career with Single-A Clinton and then perhaps moving up to Advanced-A Jupiter to open the 2020 season.

3. Zac Gallen, RHP, Triple-A New Orleans
Age: 23. Stats: 8-1, 1.57 ERA, 104 K, 16 BB in 87 innings (13 starts).

Gallen has been the breakout performer of the farm system and is making the argument the Marlins received more value than just Sandy Alcantara from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna deal.

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Gallen, who recently cracked Baseball America’s Top 100 overall prospects list, has shown improved command of three solid pitches, including his cutter which has solid break to the plate that Baseball America said, “alternates between that of a typical cutter and slider-like depth.”

Gallen has mixed speeds well on his fastball while balancing that with a solid changeup.

Gallen leads every notable pitching category in the Pacific Coast League this season, including a 28.8 strikeout-to-walk percentage and 2.94 FIP according to FanGraphs.

While Caleb Smith’s recent injury (hip inflammation) opened a temporary spot in the Marlins’ rotation (which completed 12 turns through unscathed), the club likely won’t promote Gallen to the majors unless they have a spot.

4. Monte Harrison, OF, Triple-A New Orleans
Age: 23. Stats: .288/.386/.472, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 19 SB in 189 PAs.

Until he was sidelined with hamstring tightness and placed on the minor-league injured list, Harrison appeared to be tracking toward a late summer/possibly September major-league debut.

Hamstrings are tricky injuries to gauge possible returns and Harrison has already missed more than two weeks of action. Harrison reported to Jupiter recently to start his rehab and will eventually move back up to Triple A once recovered.

Although Harrison’s adjustments at the Arizona Fall League last year helped him make more contact, his power was non-existent as he got more comfortable with his swing. It has begun to emerge again this season.

Harrison figures to be a high-strikeout hitter no matter what the Marlins hope he can continue to do to reduce the high 30.7 percentage he had at the time of his injury. Harrison’s line-drive percentage (26.7) and the way he has been spreading the ball better to all fields (37.1 percent to pulls side, 30.5 percent to center, 32.4 percent opposite field) are encouraging signs as well as his 29.2 percent home run-to-fly ball rate, according to FanGraphs.

Although outfielder Monte Harrison’s adjustments at the Arizona Fall League last year helped him make more contact, his power was non-existent as he got more comfortable with his swing. It had begun to emerge again this season at Triple A before a recent hamstring strain. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

5. Isan Díaz, 2B, Triple-A New Orleans
Age: 23. Stats: .285/.373/.534, 14 HR, 38 RBI, 122 wRC+ in 254 PAs.

Another prospect from the Christian Yelich deal who the Marlins are seeing progress in 2019.

Díaz, who had a stretch of five home runs in five consecutive games in May, is hitting .366 with 11 of his 14 home runs since May 11.

Díaz was striking out 29 percent of the time last season after making his Triple-A debut but has reduced that to 22 percent this season.

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Just as with Harrison, the Marlins’ brass has stated they need to see consistency over a large sample size from Díaz before a major-league promotion.

When that happens likely hinges on whether the Marlins trade second baseman Starlin Castro, who is in the final year of his contract, before the July 31 deadline.

6. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Advanced-A Jupiter
Age: 21. Stats: 5-2, 2.27 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 60 K, 16 BB in 47 2/3 innings.

Cabrera could form a Dominican 1-2 punch, along with Sánchez, at the top of a future Marlins’ rotation within the next two years.

Scouts see high-end rotation value from the Marlins’ 2015 international signee, who could rise quickly through their system with perhaps a move to Double A before the end of the 2019 season.

Cabrera is learning to complement his upper-90s fastball (which has touched over 100 mph) with a plus breaking ball and a changeup that he said recently he is focusing on during his most recent starts.

Cabrera ranks seventh among all Advanced-A pitchers with a 23.9 strikeout-to-walk percentage and fifth with a 2.30 FIP while holding hitters to a .182 average.

7. Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri University (Comp A round, 35th pick).
Age: 21. College stats: .286/.440/.481, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 20 of 21 steals.

Should Misner’s tools translate to the pro level, he could end up being the steal of the draft.

Misner is a five-tool prospect with power and speed who could become just as good as Bleday. A rough junior season (.222 in 39 SEC games) at Missouri coming off a broken foot the year before lowered his draft stock, allowing the Marlins to pounce on the chance to take him in the comp round.

“He could end up being just as good or even better than Bleday in terms of … (he) has just as much raw power as Bleday but is faster and better defensively,” said John Sickels, a former senior editor at Minor League Ball who is now a contributor and prospect analyst for The Athletic. “Misner has higher risk than Bleday but his upside is just as good, if not better.” Faleris sees Misner developing into a solid up-the-middle defender in center field but thinks he needs to make more contact as a hitter to become an everyday major-league outfielder.

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8. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Advanced-A Jupiter
Age: 21. Stats: 1-3, 3.35 ERA, 65 K, 20 BB in 51 innings (10 starts).

In his first season coming off Tommy John surgery, Garrett is starting to show some of the tools that enticed the Marlins to make him their first-round pick in 2016.

Though he doesn’t have the overpowering velocity of other Marlins’ prospects such as Sánchez, Cabrera or Jorge Guzman, Garrett has shown solid command of his low-90s fastball and attacks the strike zone consistently with a changeup and curveball that are “big-league ready right now,” according to 2080 Baseball.

Garrett has middle-of-the-rotation potential, and the hope is he will continue to progress over a full season or two in the minors with a target for a major-league debut set for the 2021 season.

9. Nick Neidert, RHP, Triple-A New Orleans
Age: 22. Stats: 1-2, 8.71 ERA, 10 1/3 IP, 8 BB, 7 K (three starts).

Although he avoided surgery, Neidert suffered a major setback with a meniscus injury and remains out indefinitely.

The Marlins said recently they expect him to pitch again before the end of this season. Neidert struggled in his first three starts of the season before he got hurt after spending most of spring training with the major-league club.

While not an overpowering pitcher, Neidert projects as a back-end rotation piece who scouts have pegged as more of a No. 4-5 starter. Neidert locates his pitches well and keeps hitters off balance with a solid curveball-changeup mix.

10. Víctor Víctor Mesa, OF, Advanced-A Jupiter
Age: 22. Stats: .221, .525 OPS, 0 HR, 13 RBI in 205 at-bats.

Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill recently said Mesa was a “rusty player” as he continues to play consistently for the first time in the United States and for the first time overall since a 15-month layoff from game action.

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It has shown so far as Mesa has struggled to consistently impact the baseball in Jupiter.

Though he has shown glimpses of his fielding and speed tools playing in center field and on the basepaths, Mesa is still getting accustomed to high-velocity pitching he never faced while playing in Cuba and will need the rest of this year and possibly even next year in the minors to continue to get at-bats to prove there is more upside in his game at the pro level.

2080 Baseball’s Adam McInturff recently wrote: “So long as he can produce offensively close to positional norms, the ceiling is still an everyday CF with solid defensive and baserunning contributions. That said, the longer he struggles at the plate, the more reason there will be to consider scenarios in which Mesa winds up more of a glove-first role player or well-rounded reserve.”

11. Jorge Guzman, RHP, Double-A Jacksonville
Age: 23. Stats: 2-6, 3.93 ERA, 66 1/3 IP, 57 K, 36 BB (12 starts).

Guzman is another of the Marlins’ hard-throwers, but while his command of that upper-90s fastball has improved, he is still walking batters at a high 4.88 rate per nine innings. The Marlins still have hope Guzman can become a major-league starter but that will only happen if he can develop his slider and changeup into plus pitches. At worst, Guzman could become a high-leverage reliever or even a closer with improved control. Being on the 40-man roster gives the Marlins the option to call up Guzman in September if they feel he’s ready for a peek at the majors.

12. Jordan Holloway, RHP, Advanced-A Jupiter
Age: 22. Stats: 2-3, 2.62 ERA, 44 2/3 IP, 51 K, 30 BB (10 starts).

Holloway, like Garrett, has put together strong starts in his first sustained series of outings since Tommy John surgery. The 6-6 Holloway owns a high-90s fastball that he needs to continue to develop and a solid curveball. But as 2080 Baseball pointed out in a recent scouting report, without any other above-average secondary pitch, Holloway projects more as a high-leverage bullpen arm. As with Guzman, the Marlins protected Holloway this year by placing him on the 40-man roster.

13. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Advanced-A Jupiter
Age: 21. Stats: 2-6, 3.02 ERA, 62 2/3 IP, 65 K, 19 BB (11 starts).

Rogers didn’t make his pro debut until he was 20, and though he posted a more than 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, he struggled in his first season at Single-A Clinton with a 5.82 ERA. Rogers, who is likely still two years away from a major-league debut, still needs work developing his secondary pitches to complement his low-90s fastball.

Baseball America wrote this week about Rogers: “He has gotten his outs on the strength of excellent command of a low-90s fastball and average slider. He’s continuing to develop his changeup, but for now he mostly operates with his two best pitches. So far, it’s worked out nicely.”

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14. Will Banfield, C, Single-A Clinton
Age: 19. Stats: .217/.259/.354, 5 HR, 30 RBI.

The Marlins sent their top 2018 draft picks to their Single-A affiliate in Clinton, and it has been a struggle early on at the plate. Banfield has shown some power in recent weeks while exhibiting his above-average catching and defensive tools as well his plus arm behind the plate. One scout told The Athletic he thinks Banfield has 20 to 25 home-run potential.

15. Nasim Nuñez, SS, (2nd round pick, 46th overall, Lawrenceville, Ga.)
Age: 18. Notable: Perfect Game All-American.

Nuñez impressed the Marlins with his speed and smooth defensive skills. While not expected to be a high-power bat, Nuñez is developing his skills as a switch hitter and could quickly become the Marlins’ top prospect at shortstop. The team will start Nuñez in extended spring and then move him to rookie ball this summer.

16. Jose Devers, SS, Advanced-A Jupiter
Age: 19. Stats: .325/.385/.366, one triple, 13 runs scored in 123 at-bats.

After a great start to his season, Devers has been out with a forearm strain since May 20. He added about 15 pounds of muscle to his wiry frame in the offseason, which helped him strengthen his arm. Already an excellent runner and fielder at shortstop, Devers won’t hit for power, but at the time of his injury, he was hitting more line-drives and driving the ball more consistently to all fields.

17. Brian Miller, OF, Double-A Jacksonville
Age: 23. Stats: .288/.340/.365, three triples, 25 RBI in 241 PAs.

Miller has begun to figure things out at the plate in Double-A after a slow start last season. With excellent speed, solid contact skills and an ability to play all three outfield positions, Miller will likely earn the opportunity to play in the majors at least as a reserve outfielder.

18. Connor Scott, OF, Single-A Clinton
Age: 19. Stats: .226/.294/.336, 3 HR, 18 RBI in 217 at-bats.

While he has plus speed and has shown decent range and a strong arm in the outfield, Scott’s stock has dropped in the eyes of scouts because of an inability to consistently impact the baseball at the plate. Scott is still one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, which gives him time to develop.

19. Osiris Johnson, SS, Single-A Clinton
Age: 18. Stats: N/A (injured).

Johnson is out for this season after undergoing surgery to correct a right tibial stress fracture. Johnson is a very raw player without much pro experience but is still very young, giving him an opportunity to develop. There’s a chance he could play center field as he has in the past, but Johnson had been working to hone his skills at shortstop before his injury.

20. Evan Fitterer, RHP, (5th round pick, 141st Aliso Niguel HS, Calif.)
Age: 18. HS stats: 9-1, 82 Ks, 0.97 ERA in 65 innings, UCLA commit.

Faleris, Sickels and Collazo all agree that Fitterer (if signed) belongs among the Marlins’ top 20 prospects. He could one day find his way into the rotation if he develops his slider and curveball into plus pitches to go with a fastball that’s topped out already at 95 mph.

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On the rise: Wright State OF Peyton Burdick (3rd round), Dallas Baptist RHP MD Johnson (6th round), each of whom signed this week, and Louisville RHP Bryan Hoeing (7th round) if he signs.

“Both Burdick and Johnson have Top 20 skill sets and could emerge next year as legit prospects,” Faleris said. “Burdick needs to flex his hit tool at the pro ranks to solidify that. Johnson has big stuff but has to show he can maintain it on shorter rest. Johnson, in particular, had more starter traits than I was expecting (though he still throws with a ton of effort).”

(Top photo of JJ Bleday: Kevin Schultz/ Cal Sport Media via AP Images)

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