MIAMI – Many players still gripe about it being a popularity contest.
No matter how much Major League Baseball tweaks its formula for selecting its All-Stars, there will always be some perceived snubs.
And even team success is no guarantee of individual All-Star recognition.
As of Friday, only two Red Sox position players (Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez), one Ray (Austin Meadows) and no Phillies made the cut in MLB’s new primary round of online fan voting for All-Star starters.
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Those three teams are all in serious wild-card contention.
It’s even harder to get noticed on a team like the Marlins, who have a young, rebuilding roster that features little national name recognition.
Even last season, when ex-Marlin J.T. Realmuto led every other catcher in multiple offensive categories, the commissioner’s office had to add him to the roster to make sure Miami had a representative.
In the league’s new format, the top three vote-getters at each position (except for outfield which gets nine) advance to “The Starters Election,” which will be a second voting period of 28 hours that starts next Wednesday at noon and concludes the following day at 4 p.m.
The reserves and pitchers (24 for the NL, 23 for the AL) will be chosen by a combination of player ballot picks and selections by the commissioner’s office. The final rosters will be revealed on June 30.
The Marlins weren’t expected to have any players near the top of their positions as the initial phase of voting closed Friday afternoon.
But as Spiderman once said on “Family Guy,” “Everybody gets one.”
Still, it’s hard to see any Marlins position player making the cut this year, even as a reserve.
Starting pitching has clearly been the team’s strength, and pitchers are usually easier to fit on All-Star rosters since many initial selections tend to back out in favor of resting during the break. That could work in a Marlins starter’s favor.
Let’s look at which Miami players might be worth considering for this year’s Midsummer Classic to be held July 9 in Cleveland.
PITCHERS
Caleb Smith (3-4, 3.41 ERA, 82 K, 20 BB in 66 IP)
The Marlins’ rotation ranks seventh in the majors collectively with a 3.76 ERA, but three starters, including Smith, are injured. Still, he still owns some of the best individual numbers.
Smith may be the frontrunner to land a spot despite not pitching since June 6 due to hip inflammation. The 27-year-old lefty still ranks second in the NL in strikeout percentage (31.5) behind only Max Scherzer and third in strikeout-to-walk percentage (23.9) behind only Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, according to FanGraphs.
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Smith’s numbers declined during his last six starts before his injury, as he compiled a 5.10 ERA and gave up nine home runs after allowing only four over his first six outings.
Smith is expected to make at least one rehab start in the next couple of days with one of the club’s upper-level affiliates and come off the IL soon after. Barring any setbacks, that would give Smith room for only two more starts before the All-Star break.
Odds: Likely to moderate.
Trevor Richards (3-7, 3.54 ERA, 77 K, 36 BB in 84 IP)
Richards, one of two starters from the Marlins’ original rotation this season who is still healthy, has strengthened his case of late.
In five of his past six starts, Richards has compiled a 1.17 ERA over 30 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs and one home run with 32 strikeouts and 10 walks.
While the curveball (.381 opp. avg.) and cutter (.333 opp. avg.) are still works in progress, Richards’ fastball effectiveness has increased, and his changeup is still elite. Richards ranks seventh among all starters in walks, but his ERA is almost a full point better than the 4.42 he finished with after 25 starts his rookie season.
Odds: Moderate.
Pablo López (5-5, 4.23 ERA, 73 K, 18 BB in 76 2/3 IP)
López was on a pretty good roll and might have had an outside shot at some All-Star consideration before a right shoulder strain landed him on the injured list. Over his past four starts, López compiled a 1.80 ERA in 25 innings with 23 strikeouts and four walks and allowed five earned runs. López, who Statcast compares to Stephen Strasburg and Aaron Nola in terms of velocity and movement, has increased his strikeout percentage from 18.6 to 23.2, and his walk percentage ranks 13th in the NL.
López could be in line for an All-Star nod in future seasons.
Odds: Would have been moderate if not injured.
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Sandy Alcantara (4-6, 3.51 ERA, 64 K, 42 BB in 89 2/3 IP)
Alcantara’s numbers have improved through his first four starts in June (2.10 ERA, 23 K, 11 BB), but his 5.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks second-worst among qualifying NL starters.
Odds: Moderate to slim.
Sergio Romo (1-0, 4.94 ERA, 13 saves in 14 chances, 22 K, 13 BB)
It’s a major long shot for him to secure his second All-Star nod, but the 36-year-old Romo has successfully closed out 12 of 13 save opportunities. Romo, a likely trade candidate in the coming weeks, remains clutch in what has been a poor season to date for the Marlins bullpen. According to FanGraphs, Romo is tied for 10th among NL relievers in Win Probability Added (1.19).
Odds: Slim.
Position players
Jorge Alfaro (.261/.312/.419, 9 HR, 27 RBI)
Although the odds are stacked against him at his position, Alfaro has the best case of any Marlins position player.
Willson Contreras of the Cubs is justifiably the top vote-getter at catcher, hitting .292/.390/.560 with a .395 wOBA and a wRC+ of 145 entering Friday’s games, which leads all NL catchers.
Alfaro ranks fifth in OPS (.731), wRC+ (96) and wOBA (.313) among National League catchers with at least 210 plate appearances entering Friday’s action.
Alfaro has also done a solid job managing the Marlins’ young pitching staff and has helped it control opposing teams’ running games with the defensive tools that could eventually earn him an All-Star selection.
According to Statcast, Alfaro’s arm strength on throws to second base is tied for the best in the NL with Realmuto (87.6 mph), and his pop time is tied for sixth (1.97 seconds). He also possesses the fastest sprint speed in the majors among catchers (28.9 feet per second).
Alfaro was placed on the seven-day concussion IL on Friday, which further hurts his chances.
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Odds: Slim, but could improve if injuries occur.
Brian Anderson (.246/.729 OPS, 9 HR, 32 RBI in 310 PAs)
If durability and defense were the only parameters in consideration, Anderson would be a lock. Coming off a rookie season in which he played in 156 of 162 games, Anderson has played in 72 of the team’s first 73 games, with the only absence being a decision to rest him during an early-season slump.
Anderson leads all third basemen in defensive runs saved with eight and ranks third in defensive runs above average (3.2), according to FanGraphs.
But Anderson has struggled to find a rhythm at the plate throughout the first half, ranking 11th in wOBA (.315) and wRC+ (98) among qualifying third basemen.
Odds: Slim.
If he were healthy…
Garrett Cooper (.313/.881 OPS, 6 HR, 2 GS, 21 RBI in 148 PAs)
An injury-free season may have put Cooper in contention for a reserve spot in the outfield, where he’s listed. One of the main catalysts to breathe life into a miserable Miami offense in May, Cooper (sore left triceps) returned to the lineup Thursday and extended his hitting streak to 12 games — but then suffered another injury setback. Cooper, who ranks 5th in WAR among NL rookies, ranks 13th overall in batting average and 21st in wRC+ (136) among NL hitters with at least 140 plate appearances.
If he had more ABs…
Harold Ramirez (.316/.766 OPS, 2 HR, 16 RBI in 139 PAs)
Ramirez, who ranks in the top 10 among NL rookies in multiple offensive categories, has hit safely in 25 of the 34 games he’s played but doesn’t have a big enough sample size yet. He has a better shot at being considered for NL Rookie of the Year.
(Top photo of Caleb Smith: Jake Roth / USA Today)