Projecting the increasingly versatile Marlins’ 2020 lineup (including more possible free-agent signings)

Sep 18, 2019; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jonathan Villar (2) singles during the second inning against the Toronto Blue Jays  at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
By Andre Fernandez
Dec 4, 2019

MIAMI — Brian Anderson won’t be the only one moving around a lot next season.

The Marlins seemingly added some firepower, speed and flexibility to their lineup Monday by acquiring versatile Orioles’ infielder Jonathan Villar and Rays’ first baseman Jesús Aguilar.

The moves add depth to a club that scored the second-fewest runs in baseball last season.

Advertisement

But they also exemplify the Marlins’ strategy of building the most versatile roster possible in 2020 as they develop several prospects on the cusp of their major-league debuts.

Villar provides another solid switch-hitting option who can play multiple spots in the infield, although he is expected to share time primarily at third base and play some outfield.

Aguilar could bring more power to the lineup as well as fortify first base — a need position for the Marlins.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Villar is projected to earn about $10.4 million as he enters his third year of salary arbitration and Aguilar is projected to earn $2.5 million entering his first year.

Villar and Aguilar are each going to be signed to one-year deals, giving the Marlins the option to trade them by the July 31st trade deadline for prospects.

The moves could bring the Marlins’ projected payroll next season to roughly around $55 million.

When the Winter Meetings begin Monday in San Diego, the Marlins plan to be mindful of any opportunity to add lineup depth regardless of position.

Securing some starting pitching or bullpen help is a goal, as well as adding a veteran presence at catcher behind starter Jorge Alfaro.

But signing one of baseball’s talented free agent outfielders is also a possibility as Miami looks to stabilize and strengthen a unit that’s had constant turnover since the team traded the All-Star trio of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna.

One thing is certain.

The Marlins will target players that can play multiple positions and generate offense consistently.

With the addition of a 26th active roster spot next season, the Marlins can add or keep an extra utility player as well for roster depth.

Let’s take a look at how that 2020 Opening Day lineup shapes up with the Marlins’ newest additions plus other free agents who could be signed this offseason.

Rays first baseman Jesus Aguilar celebrates as he hits a 3-run home run off Cleveland at Tropicana Field. (Kim Klement / USA Today)

FREE-AGENT TARGETS

Let’s start with an ambitious target.

If they sign Nicholas Castellanos …

Castellanos has numerous teams interested and the asking price is likely to be high after his impressive finish to the 2019 season.

The Marlins are about to commit possibly $14 million in payroll to Villar and Aguilar on one-year deals.

Castellanos is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to command at least a four-year deal with an average annual value north of $15 million.

Advertisement

Castellanos, a graduate of Archbishop McCarthy High, hit .289/.337/.525 with 27 home runs, 73 RBIs and a 121 OPS+ combined last season for the Tigers and Cubs. During his second-half stint with the Cubs, Castellanos produced an impressive 154 wRC+ to go along with 16 homers in 225 plate appearances.

Castellanos has hit 165 doubles over the past four seasons, which is the fourth-most in the majors, with a 120 OPS+ and 94 home runs.

His defense is a concern, but Castellanos improved in 2019 going from -19 the previous season to -9 in Defensive Runs Saved, according to FanGraphs.

He played 137 games last season in right field but has experience in left field, where the Marlins have a bigger hole to fill in their outfield.

If Castellanos played primarily in right field, he could split time there with Anderson allowing the Marlins to move Garrett Cooper to left. It also allows Anderson to play at third more often, where he’d share time with Villar.

Castellanos, who will be 28 on Opening Day next year, would be a huge get for the Marlins to land not only the top outfield free agent on the market but also  a recognizable face from South Florida.

But would the Marlins want to commit a longer-term contract to an outfielder while several prospects are likely to reach the majors long before it expires?

If they sign Avisaíl García…

A more affordable and more likely option than Castellanos, García could still provide a quality bat and presence in the Marlins’ clubhouse.

García, who lives in Miami, posted a 2.0 WAR last year for the Rays while recording 138 hits (.282/.464/.796) with 72 RBIs, a 111 OPS+ and a 112 wRC+ and 10 stolen bases.

García, 28, is another right field option who finished with three Defensive Runs Saved in 2019. But he can also back up either Monte Harrison or Lewis Brinson in center field, where he has played in 45 games during his eight major-league seasons.

Advertisement

MLB Trade Rumors projects García to garner a two-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $12 million.

If they sign Corey Dickerson …

Dickerson, 30, would add another lefty bat and shore up left field, costing the Marlins a more affordable and less lengthy two-year deal likely in the $15 million to $20 million range.

Dickerson has injury concerns after missing time last season with a shoulder strain and broken foot but posted a 127 wRC+ in 279 plate appearances, hitting a combined .304 with 12 home runs and 59 RBIs for the Pirates and Phillies.

He also struck out only 15 percent of the time, per FanGraphs.

LINEUP PROJECTION

Castellanos is likely out of their price range. But if the Marlins sign either García or Dickerson or both, it creates a number of options in the outfield that could squeeze out a few current 40-man options, including Austin Dean and Magneuris Sierra, who would be out of options entering the season.

Right field

Brian Anderson/Avisaíl García/Garrett Cooper

Anderson (nine outfield assists in 2019) played Gold Glove-caliber defense both in right and at third.

Expect Anderson to share time with Villar at third base and spend the other half again in right field, where his strong arm is a huge plus to shut down opposing running games.

Orioles second baseman Jonathan Villar celebrates after hitting a home run against the Toronto Centre. (Kevin Sousa / USA Today)

But things will get interesting if the Marlins ink a deal with García, who would then split time with Anderson in right.

Hill said Cooper would likely split time between right field and first base, but the Marlins could move him to left field if right field is crowded.

Even if right field gets crowded, the Marlins have had durability concerns with Cooper. It’s not likely he will have the same amount of split playing time between right field and first the way Anderson would at third and right.

Acquiring García or perhaps Dickerson gives the Marlins more flexibility in that regard.

Advertisement

Jon Berti, who will likely be the Marlins’ “Mr. Utility” playing at several spots in the outfield and infield, would back up all three positions.

Center field

Monte Harrison/Lewis Brinson

Harrison, the Marlins’ No. 5 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline, is a strong candidate to start if the Marlins feel he is ready. Harrison, 24, is coming off wrist surgery but with a strong spring training could secure the job.

Brinson needs to show the Marlins once and for all he is capable of being a reliable major-league option or it could be the end this season. Brinson will enter camp vying for the starting job but with Harrison on the cusp, he’ll have to show the Marlins something that indicates he’s ready to significantly improve on his .183 career batting average in 655 at-bats so far in the majors.

Hill said the speedy Villar would also play in the outfield – where he hasn’t appeared in a game since 2017 with the Brewers – making him another center field option along with Berti.

Left field

Corey Dickerson/Harold Ramírez

If the Marlins were to sign Dickerson, he would likely see the bulk of the starts in left since he presents the most experienced option in left (career plus-2 Defensive Runs Saved in 510 starts, 547 games overall).

If not, the 25-year-old Ramírez could pick up where he left off following a solid rookie season.

Ramírez hit .276 with a 92 wRC+ in 446 plate appearances in 2019 and can play all three outfield spots, although he’s best suited to play left field.
Cooper can share time there if necessary while also playing some right field and first base. This alleviates some durability concerns for both while keeping Cooper’s bat in the lineup if he’s healthy (.281, 15 HRs, 110 OPS+ in 381 ABs in 2019).

The Marlins can also rotate Berti (.273, 6 HRs, 24 RBI, 17 SB), who played there in seven games last season if necessary. García hasn’t played left field in the majors since 2016 with the White Sox but could also be an emergency option as would Villar.

Advertisement

First base

Jesús Aguilar/Garrett Cooper

Aguilar, 29, experienced a drop in offensive numbers last season (.236, 87 OPS+, 12 HRs) after an All-Star 2018 season in Milwaukee (.274, 135 OPS+, 35 HRs, 108 RBIs).

But the Marlins are taking a low risk at a need position where they already have a reliable hitting option in Cooper.

Even if he doesn’t hit 30 or more homers, García is capable of consistently finding the gaps at expansive Marlins Park and driving in runs in the heart of the lineup.

Miguel Rojas can also spell both players, if needed, at first.

Second base

Isan Díaz

Díaz struggled both offensively and defensively during his first 49 major-league games but showed glimpses of his slick fielding and home run power.

Díaz hit .173 with five home runs and a .566 OPS in 201 plate appearances. He also committed nine errors in 48 games at second.

A big reason the Marlins brought in Villar was to have insurance in case Díaz struggles in what would be his first time starting a season in the majors.
Rojas can also move over to play second, if necessary.

Shortstop

Miguel Rojas

The Marlins signed Rojas to a two-year contract extension at the end of last season after he finished sixth among all shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved (12), according to FanGraphs.

His versatility makes him valuable throughout the infield, but expect him to make the bulk of starts at shortstop once again.

Rojas’ power numbers decreased in 2019 (5 home runs after hitting 11 in 2018) but he hit more consistently — .284/.331/.379 with a career-best 183 total bases.

Villar and Berti are both options to play shortstop when the Marlins move Rojas to other spots in the infield.

Third base

Brian Anderson/Jonathan Villar

Villar, 28, hit 24 home runs for the Orioles last season and stole 40 bases while hitting .274 and scoring 111 runs.

Advertisement

He could bring the Marlins a credible base-stealing threat and a consistent leadoff option — two things they haven’t had consistently since trading All-Star Dee Gordon.

Villar has put up better numbers against righties while hitting lefty (.281/.356/.467, 15 HRs, 48 RBIs, 109 Ks, 45 BBs in 465 PAs) than against lefties hitting right-handed (.264/.310/.432, 9 HRs, 25 RBIs, 66 K, 16 BB in 247 PAs), which could play well with Marlins Park’s short right field porch.

If he can repeat that kind of production next season, the Marlins might have one of the best situations at third base in the majors, with him splitting time with Anderson, who hit .261 with a 114 OPS+ and hit 20 home runs before a season-ending hand injury.

Anderson finished with eight Defensive Runs Saved (third among third basemen with at least 450 innings played at the position in 2019).

Catcher

Jorge Alfaro

Alfaro won’t be moving around like his teammates as the Marlins hope he can build off a solid first season with the club. Alfaro was the best on the team at impacting the baseball with an average exit velocity of 90.8, per Statcast, that helped him hit 18 home runs in 2019.

His defensive tools continue to improve after he recorded the third-fastest throws by a catcher to second (88.2 mph average) and a pop time of 1.94 seconds that ranked eighth among qualifying catchers.

Alfaro’s biggest need for improvement is his 33.1 strikeout percentage and 4.7 walk percentage.

Chad Wallach, who missed most of last season after suffering a concussion, is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster.

Austin Romine and Francisco Cervelli are among the available options with experience.

PITCHING

• Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said the club expects José Ureña, whom the Marlins tendered a contract on Monday, to enter camp on the roster but did not clarify if he would start or be in the bullpen.

Advertisement

The Marlins experimented with Urena as a closer last September after he returned from a nearly two-month stint on the IL with a herniated disk in his lower back.

Ureña, the Marlins’ Opening Day starter the past two seasons, recorded two saves but had three blown saves and finished with a 9.00 ERA, allowing three home runs and a .318 opposing batting average in 10 innings. Urena is 31-39 with 4.37 ERA in 93 career starts.

“We’ll allow him to keep competing to make our club,” Hill said. “We know that he has history as a starter and out of the pen, but what we’ve always said, the best 12 to 13 pitchers will make the club. That will be sorted out as we get to Jupiter.”

• Hill also mentioned both Drew Steckenrider and Ryne Stanek as potential 2020 closer candidates but said the club will explore signing a free agent closer.

(Top photo of  Jonathan Villar: Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)

Get all-access to exclusive stories.

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.