Adam Eaton is the perfect example of a ballplayer who sounds like a seasoned veteran. The problem is, he isn’t one.
Eaton, the Sox’s 5-foot-8 centerfielder, just turned 27 and has only logged two seasons of 100-plus games, both with the White Sox, in parts of four seasons in the majors. So at the team’s winter SoxFest convention, when someone asked him about the importance of the Sox getting off to hot start in 2016, Eaton admitted that in years past, he didn’t know what he didn’t know.
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“The past two years I’ve always said it’s not a big deal, but I truly believe it is a big deal now that I’ve been in the league more than two years,” he said. “It’s important to get off to a good start to show the league we’re for real and to build confidence in our team and in our organization that we can win and win early.”
One of the Sox’s most famous teams was the “Winning Ugly” crew of 1983. Could the 2016 White Sox be the “Winning Early” squad? Probably not, but we’re still two-plus months away from finding out.
Last year, the Sox lost their first four games and wound up going 8-11 in the first month. It was hardly a season-killing start, but it set a tone for a disappointing 2015. Their big pitching addition of Jeff Samardzija was an outright disaster for all but a stretch in the summer, the team’s defense and baserunning was awful, again, and reigning Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu didn’t get any help in a feckless lineup.
By the end of June, the Sox were nine games under .500. A pre-trading deadline winning streak in July was only a mirage.
Eaton hit .192 in April but his numbers improved the next few months before they slipped again. His splits were pretty telling. He hit just .245/.309/.383 in the first half and .317/.378/.465 in the second.
What was the difference for him?
“I have no idea,” he said. “I wish I did because I would try to start off a little hotter and make an All-Star team. I think that would be good for the resume, huh?”
It would be good for the team as well.
Eaton hit .320/.421/.536 in July, the Sox’s only winning month of the season at 16-10. Eleven of his 31 hits went for extra bases. It’s a little much to say as he goes, so goes the White Sox, but it wouldn’t hurt for the leadoff man to help energize the Sox from the jump.
Of course, given how bad the Sox were last year, everyone needs to start the season with a little urgency. (If it’s possible to translate urgency into production, that is.)
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The narrative is this a make-or-break season for the Sox, a model of continuity despite little production. The Sox have one playoff season since winning the 2005 World Series and they needed a miracle week and a Game 163 to make it happen in 2008.
It’s getting to a point where Sox fans are wondering if chairman Jerry Reinsdorf is ever going to shake up his front office. I’m willing to guess the answer is no.
“We work in professional sports so every season is arguably a make-or-break season,” Sox general manager Rick Hahn said at SoxFest. “We have high expectations for this club just like we had high expectations last year.”
What happened last year has directly affected the expectations for this season. As in, if the Sox get off to another bad start, we expect fans and media will call for manager Robin Ventura to be fired. Ventura is in the last year of his surprise deal to replace Ozzie Guillen back in 2011.
“You want to win just because you want your team to get off to a good start, you want to make a good run at it,” Ventura said. “Besides I have one year on my contract. That’s not a secret. Regardless of that I would want to win just as many games early on if I had 10 years, it doesn’t matter. The competitive part of everyone, we want to get off to a good start. That much is for sure.”
He had a winning season (85-77) in his rookie campaign, but the Sox are 212-274 in the last three. Ventura hasn’t bobbled one grounder or hit into one double play in that span, but the numbers are the numbers.
Numbers like zero. That’s how many days the White Sox were in first place last season. In 2014, the Sox were in first as late as April 16. In 2013, they were in first on April 8 and never again.
The makeup of the team is on Hahn and his boss, executive vice president Kenny Williams. If Ventura has an eye for detail, it hasn’t shown up. Over the last three years, the Sox have been near or at the bottom in most important defensive categories. Last year, they were last in defensive runs saved, as calculated by FanGraphs. (The Sox were 28th in 2014 and 22 in 2013.)
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To put it in perspective, the World Series champion Royals were first with 56.9, while the Sox had -41.5. (The Royals were +83 in run differential while the Sox were -79.)
The Sox hired former Cubs manager Rick Renteria as the new bench coach. Should the Sox get rid of Ventura in-season, he has experience as a fill-in manager, working one season in his dream job before getting jettisoned for Joe Maddon. But I don’t see that happening without a massive collapse. OK, I guess it is possible.
But more important, Renteria has a good reputation as a coach. It never hurts to have another voice in Ventura’s ear.
While Ventura isn’t a hot-button type to argue about, he’s also not very popular among the Sox fanbase. He’ll get the blame quickly if the Sox stumble early. The players, as they do, said it’s on them.
“As I’ve said a million times, Robin has a huge influence on how we play but at the end of the day it’s up to us,” Eaton said. “The last two years that I’ve been here, it’s our fault. I’ve said that a million times and I’ll continue to say it. When we put our big boy pants on and come ready to play and get the job done, you guys are all going to see what a great manager Robin is.”
The Sox don’t have to be in first place on May 1, but it would be helpful to be a few games over .500 when the kids are out of school. Last year, the Sox were only over .500 for one game when they were 18-17 on May 18. That came at the end of a six-game winning streak. In 2014, their high-water mark was two games over .500 on April 15. In 2013, they were two games over .500 on April 7. (All of these terrible Sox statistics are courtesy of baseball-reference.com.)
The Sox also had a seven-game win streak last year and were 49-50 on July 29. That got them to 2 1/2 games of the second wild card and all but ended conversations about a fire sale at the trade deadline. The Sox responded by losing eight of 10 and they never got closer to five games under .500 the rest of the season.
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Unlike last year, there are no outlandish expectations for the White Sox. FanGraphs has them at 81 wins, five more than last year.
Hahn hasn’t been able to land another outfielder on the free agent market, though our Sahadev Sharma makes a case for Dexter Fowler, but he deserves credit for trading for third baseman Todd Frazier and second baseman Brett Lawrie. While former catcher Tyler Flowers gets high marks for pitch framing, he didn’t hit enough and the new catching tandem of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro is promising on both sides of the plate.
The Sox still have their formidable rotation trio of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon. They have enough bullpen pieces to start the season.
Pitcher Carson Fulmer and shortstop Tim Anderson are the prospects worth salivating over.
At SoxFest, optimism was high. As it always is. Anything is possible in January.
“Here’s the question,” Sox broadcasting legend Hawk Harrelson said. “Are we better now than we were when the season was over? No question about it.”
On paper, Harrelson is correct. But we’ll see how much better the Sox are come April.
