With the calendar flipping to a new year, conference play will kick into gear. For me, that means it’s time for the computer to spit out projections for conference champions. The format is similar to last year’s version, when my computer’s top choice prevailed in 21 of the 32 conferences, beating all known human prognostications.
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I can’t guarantee another victory like that, but my human friends often have a couple of biases at this point in the season that cause them to struggle against my computer. First, they can overreact to early-season information. Just because the preseason favorite has lost a game or two that it shouldn’t have doesn’t mean we should completely scramble the league hierarchy. And second, humans tend to overvalue strength of schedule. A team can be good even if it doesn’t play a good schedule.
But perhaps the biggest strength of this approach is that it can properly handle the unbalanced schedules that are common in today’s era of larger conferences. Sometimes, conference schedule strength can be overblown, but in very close conference races it does make a difference.
Now to the particulars. The computer is projecting the chance that a team wins at least a share of its league title. Therefore, percentages will add up to more than 100 percent. Only teams with at least a 10 percent chance are listed. The team voted as the preseason favorite by the conference’s official media or coaches poll is denoted by an asterisk. Special shoutout to The Athletic’s Brendan Quinn and the Columbus Dispatch’s Adam Jardy for filling the void for the Big Ten.
Conferences are listed in decreasing order of suspense.
Atlantic Sun
Liberty* 95 percent
Liberty takes the honor as the most likely team to win its conference. The Flames are 12-1 against D-I foes while the other eight members of the A-Sun are a combined 23-73. But don’t get carried away thinking Liberty will go unbeaten in the conference. My current projections put the likelihood of that at 9 percent. Going unbeaten in the league is hard, even if you’re significantly better than everyone else.
America East
Vermont* 89 percent, Stony Brook 18 percent
Vermont has lost three regular-season conference games over the last three seasons, and it looks poised to roll through the league again. That said, Stony Brook has beaten every team it should have and had some nice stretches against the tougher teams on its schedule, so with a few breaks the Seawolves could push the Catamounts.
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OVC
Belmont* 85 percent, Murray State 19 percent
If any coaching change would go smoothly it was Casey Alexander taking over at Belmont. Alexander had been a longtime assistant under former coach Rick Byrd and last season was a head coach just across the street at Lipscomb. And so far, things have gone well enough. Belmont is the frontrunner over Murray State at the moment.
WAC
New Mexico State* 82 percent, Cal Baptist 20 percent
The Aggies have won four of the past five regular-season titles in the WAC and their nearest competition this season is Cal Baptist, which is in its second season in D-I and not even eligible for the NCAA Tournament. Nonetheless, Lancers point guard Milan Acquaah might be the best player in the league.
WCC
Gonzaga* 78 percent, Saint Mary’s 24 percent, BYU 17 percent
In 20 previous seasons under Mark Few, Gonzaga missed out on at least a share of a regular-season WCC title just twice. And one of those occasions was Few’s very first season. So the 78 percent figure strikes me as a little bit fishy even considering the strong starts from Saint Mary’s and BYU. It’s not like this is one of Gonzaga’s weaker seasons under Few, either.
Big 12
Kansas* 75 percent, Baylor 20 percent, West Virginia 13 percent
With the Jayhawks finally losing out on a Big 12 regular-season title last season, people are no longer bound by history to pick Kansas to win the league. However, it just so happens that Kansas once again has the best team in the conference. But both Baylor and West Virginia will make the Jayhawks work for it.
Atlantic 10
Dayton 75 percent, VCU* 20 percent
VCU was the consensus favorite to start the season but you can’t deny the work Dayton put in over November and December, when all but one of its victories were by double-digits and the Flyers’ two losses were neutral-site overtime games against Kansas and Colorado. It’s not that the Rams have played particularly poorly (although from a resume standpoint, the season has been underwhelming so far) but the Flyers have to be considered the clear favorite.
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ACC
Duke* 69 percent, Louisville 41 percent
Louisville is playing like a team on course for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament, but save for the stunning upset against Stephen F. Austin, Duke has looked like the team expected to win the league. Tre Jones and Cassius Stanley have missed recent games with injuries, but if the Blue Devils stay healthy, they could win their first regular-season title since 2010. The weak upper crust of the league has really opened the door for the drought to end.
MWC
San Diego State 68 percent, Utah State* 38 percent
The Aggies were the unanimous favorite in the preseason media poll but I have a feeling if there was a revote, the Aztecs would be the pick. For one thing, San Diego State has outplayed Utah State so far, racking up wins away from home over Creighton, Iowa, and BYU. Additionally, the Aggies’ star 7-footer, Neemias Queta, reinjured his left knee against Florida and his status in the short term is in doubt.
MVC
Northern Iowa 67 percent, Loyola Chicago 20 percent, Bradley 14 percent, Indiana State 11 percent
Northern Iowa, at 11-1, is now the darling of the league, having suffered its only loss to West Virginia, to go with quality wins at Colorado and over South Carolina in Mexico. The pick in the conference’s preseason poll, Missouri State, isn’t even listed here after going 6-7 in nonconference play. That doesn’t mean it can’t win it, but based on what we’ve seen so far, it will take much-improved play for that to happen.
Big South
Radford* 65 percent, Winthrop 34 percent
Radford is just 5-7, but outside of two games against non D-I teams, the Highlanders played one of the most difficult schedules in the land and have wins over Northwestern and Richmond to show for it, along with single-digit losses to Liberty, Mississippi State and UNC Greensboro. And only the game against UNCG was at home.
Ivy
Yale 65 percent, Harvard* 34 percent, Penn 22 percent
I don’t know to what extent the league’s media expected Seth Towns to make an appearance for Harvard when the preseason poll was administered, but now we know that‘s not going to happen. That said, Harvard has played well, but Yale has played better, going 10-3 against the nation’s 50th-best schedule. Each of their three losses was close and on the road, and if Penn State and Oklahoma State can’t dominate Yale, nobody in the Ivy will either.
MAAC
Rider 63 percent, Siena 22 percent, Iona* 10 percent
The preseason favorite, Iona, has played just seven games and won two of them. Rider, on the other hand, has looked pretty good in building a 7-4 record that includes a neutral site win over Vermont. I suspect the Gaels give off a bit of a Kansas vibe to the coaches who voted in the preseason poll, what with having won the conference tourney four years in a row. Still, they’ll have to improve a bit to win their second straight regular-season title.
Big West
UC-Irvine* 60 percent, UC-Santa Barbara 31 percent, Hawai’i 24 percent
Irvine lost three starters from last season after pulling off a first-round win over Kansas State, but still gained the support of the conference’s media in the preseason poll. And while the Anteaters have gone just 8-7 so far, they played a challenging schedule that included just two home games against D-I teams.
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Patriot
Colgate* 59 percent, Lafayette 21 percent, Loyola (MD) 20 percent
Colgate was the preseason pick and is still the league favorite, but that’s the only thing that has been normal about the Patriot League so far. Lafayette was picked eighth in the preseason poll and now could be the most likely challenger to the Red Raiders. Bucknell was picked second and has struggled to a 4-9 start that makes it the sixth-most likely team to win the league right now.
Conference USA
Louisiana Tech 57 percent, Western Kentucky* 24 percent, UTEP 16 percent, North Texas 12 percent
There are major caveats with Conference USA as it reserves the last four conference games for “bonus play,” in which the league will match up teams of similar records. Furthermore, preseason favorite Western Kentucky won’t have sophomore center Charles Bassey after he fractured a tibia. Adding to the weirdness, Louisiana Tech opens up conference play with a two-game series against Southern Miss. Anyway, the Bulldogs are off to a 9-3 start with a win at Mississippi State and competitive losses at Creighton and Indiana.
Big East
Butler 55 percent, Villanova 20 percent, Seton Hall* 17 percent, Marquette 14 percent
Butler has to be the surprise of nonconference play. Not only were the Bulldogs picked eighth in the 10-team Big East, but they were closer to last than seventh in the voting. If there’s one spot where I’d pick against the computer, it’s this one. Butler’s looked consistently great so far, but there are more difficult times ahead.
Southland
Stephen F. Austin 55 percent, Sam Houston State 52 percent
My computer’s preseason ratings missed badly on Stephen F. Austin but I take some comfort in knowing that the league’s coaches and SIDs picked the Lumberjacks fourth while tabbing New Orleans to win the league. The Privateers head into league play having not beaten a D-I team yet. You know about SFA, but it is joined by Sam Houston State as virtual co-favorites for the league title. Both are off to 2-0 starts in league play.
Horizon
Wright State* 53 percent, Northern Kentucky 50 percent
Rebounding and foul-drawing machine Loudon Love has missed most or all of six games for Wright State so far with an injured elbow. But now he’s back and posted 22 points and 16 rebounds in the Raiders’ win over Green Bay to open league play. Wright State is the type of team that could give a first-round opponent a sweat in March. But you know what? Northern Kentucky is also that kind of team. There are two sneaky good teams in the Horizon who will play in obscurity because neither registered a marquee win in nonconference play. This race will be fun, though.
SWAC
Prairie View A&M* 50 percent, Texas Southern 45 percent, Grambling State 19 percent
Even if you don’t care about the SWAC, it always has one of the most peculiar regular-season storylines: The SWAC hasn’t had a shared regular-season champ since 1996. Over the past 23 seasons, all other leagues have had a shared champ 22 percent of the time. That means the chance of a league doing what the SWAC has done was about 1-in-300. Prairie View won the league last season and remains a slight favorite to repeat.
Sun Belt
Georgia State 49 percent, Appalachian State 28 percent, Little Rock 18 percent, Georgia Southern 14 percent
Fourteen years after he was fired at Siena, Rob Lanier is back in a head coaching role at Georgia State. And after having been picked sixth in the Sun Belt’s preseason coaches poll, the Panthers are now the favorite, having run up an 8-4 record. All four losses were by single digits on the road. Preseason favorite South Alabama is not listed after a rough nonconference campaign followed by two conference losses at home.
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SoCon
East Tennessee State* 48 percent, Furman 37 percent, UNC Greensboro 36 percent
A year after producing four top-100 teams, the SoCon is proving the sequel can be as good as the original. ETSU, Furman and UNCG have each given top-50 teams major scares (or outright losses) on the road already. ETSU is the favorite, but it is a wide-open three-team race that could produce another single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Big Ten
Michigan State* 47 percent, Ohio State 44 percent, Maryland 12 percent
Michigan State leads Ohio State by a game in the conference standings and that’s enough to make the Spartans the league favorite by a razor-thin margin. The fact that every other would-be contender (Maryland, Michigan, Purdue and Iowa, to name a few) also split their first two league games helps Michigan State as well.
Summit
Oral Roberts 47 percent, North Dakota State* 32 percent, South Dakota State 19 percent, South Dakota 17 percent, Nebraska-Omaha 10 percent
Oral Roberts has had just five losing seasons in its history in the Summit League, but four of those were over the past four seasons. The Golden Eagles are 7-6, but four wins are over non-D-Is and two other wins are over Houston Baptist and Chicago State, who are a combined 1-20 against D-I teams. But ORU has consistently given power conference teams fits and that bodes well in a wide-open Summit.
Pac-12
Oregon* 45 percent, Arizona 36 percent, Colorado 30 percent, Washington 12 percent
The Pac-12 is still the sixth-best power conference, but it is a bit better at the top than last season. To that point, Washington won the league last season, has improved and barely makes the list. There’s a clear top three and the schedule hurts Oregon a bit as the Ducks are the only one of the group with four games against the other two teams.
Big Sky
Eastern Washington* 44 percent, Northern Colorado 44 percent, Southern Utah 20 percent
Eastern Washington is the favorite by a fraction of a percent but Northern Colorado, picked fifth in the preseason, is a surprise in the second position. Head coach Jeff Linder has replaced Randy Bennett and Mike Krzyzewski as the coach most obsessed with taking away the 3-pointer. The Bears lead the country in 3-point attempt denial this season after finishing eighth and first the previous two seasons.
NEC
Sacred Heart 44 percent, St. Francis (Pa.) 43 percent, Bryant 21 percent
Establishing Sacred Heart as the favorite is necessary for making a pick but the reality is that if the wind blows a different direction tomorrow, St. Francis (Pa.) could easily be the choice. Missing is LIU, which is in its first season as the Sharks (and representing a combination of their Brooklyn and Post campuses) and was picked to win the league in the preseason coaches poll.
CAA
Northeastern 43 percent, Hofstra* 36 percent, Charleston 27 percent, Delaware 13 percent
Hofstra was the pick in the preseason poll but opened the season with a stunning home loss to San Jose State. But here it is, still among the favorites to win the CAA. Really, though, it is a super wide-open league that will just make you look silly if you try to make a pick. Very little separates the top four teams.
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SEC
Kentucky* 40 percent, Auburn 29 percent, Florida 22 percent, Arkansas 15 percent, LSU 13 percent
Kentucky and Florida have gotten off to disappointing starts but they still figure to be a factor in the SEC race as no team has emerged as a force as of yet. True, Auburn is one of three remaining unbeatens, but the Tigers have played just one top-50 team and one true road game. There’s no reason to think any team is a lock, which will make for fun viewing over the coming weeks. And Arkansas is a serious contender despite being picked 11th in the preseason.
MEAC
Bethune-Cookman 38 percent, Morgan State 31 percent, Coppin State 21 percent, Norfolk State 20 percent, North Carolina A&T 11 percent, North Carolina Central* 10 percent
Coppin State leads the league with four D-I wins, but Bethune-Cookman is the computer’s favorite in part due to taking Georgia Tech, Saint Louis and UCF to the wire in competitive losses.
American
Memphis* 35 percent, Houston* 34 percent, Wichita State 27 percent, Connecticut 14 percent, Temple 13 percent
There haven’t been a lot of surprises in the AAC power structure to date, but that may change with five teams holding realistic chances of winning a share of the conference title. The preseason poll was a dead heat between Memphis and Houston and wouldn’t you know it, the computer has them as virtual co-favorites on the eve of league play.
MAC
Kent State 34 percent, Akron 31 percent, Toledo* 24 percent, Ball State 23 percent, Buffalo 10 percent
The MAC is the only conference to still use divisions, which leaves an unsatisfactory feeling when determining a regular-season champ. The percentages shown are the chances of having the best conference record and it’s a nearly even battle between four teams.
(Top photo of Duke’s Vernon Carey: Rob Kinnan / USA Today)
