Free agency doesn’t begin until March 18. The first night of the NFL draft is April 23. Oh, and there’s still the little matter of the playoffs beginning this weekend.
But for those teams eliminated from the postseason — like the Cardinals — it’s never too early to look ahead. So, 10 predictions for the 2020 Arizona Cardinals:
Arizona will finish 8-8
Might as well get to the big one right off the bat. This season Arizona had to break in a first-year coach, a rookie quarterback, install new offensive and defensive systems and deal with key injuries and a suspension to cornerback Patrick Peterson.
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It’s not a quantum leap to suggest that in the second year of Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray the Cardinals can go from five wins to a .500 football team, assuming general manager Steve Keim addresses the team’s needs in the offseason.
Think of the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo went 6-10 in 2018 after taking quarterback Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick. This year, the Bills finished 10-6 and made the playoffs.
We’re not expecting that big of a jump from the Cardinals because the NFC West is much tougher than the AFC East, but a three-win improvement certainly is within reach.
Kenyan Drake will rush for 1,000 yards
This is assuming, of course, the Cardinals re-sign Drake, who will be a free agent. That shouldn’t be an issue. Drake wants to come back and the Cardinals, with about $70 million in salary-cap space, can lock him up before free agency begins.
Drake rushed for 623 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games with the Cardinals while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He would be the featured back in 2020, and Kingsbury’s commitment to the running game will push Drake over 1,000 yards.
Arizona will re-sign tackle D.J. Humphries
Humphries recently told The Athletic he wants to remain in Arizona but not at a hometown discount.
“Wal-Mart is more of a discount place. Offensive tackles not so much,” Humphries said. “You usually don’t go on the cheap on those. That’s like paying $20 for a tattoo. You get what you pay for.”
The Cardinals will pay for Humphries. He’s not an elite offensive tackle, but he just turned 26, he played in all 16 games in 2019 and had arguably his best season. Just as important: Arizona doesn’t have anyone on the roster who could step in and start at left tackle. If Humphries leaves, the Cardinals will be forced to either overpay for a tackle in free agency or use their No. 8 pick on an offensive lineman.
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Re-signing Humphries will take a significant bite out of Arizona’s cap space, but young, athletic left tackles aren’t cheap. The Cardinals will gulp a little bit when putting, say, $50 million in front of Humphries, but what choice do they have?
Larry Fitzgerald will return for a 17th season
Fitzgerald is the rare player who, 16 years in, still loves the weekly grind of an NFL season. It’s not just Sundays he enjoys. He’s like a kid in the locker room, needling teammates and reporters. He practices as hard now as he did as a rookie. After the Cardinals’ season finale against the Los Angeles Rams, Fitzgerald said he couldn’t remember ever having so much fun.
Fitzgerald also loves the paycheck. If Arizona is willing to give him $11 million to continue doing something he’s good at and loves, why retire?
One day, Fitzgerald will decide it’s time to move on with his life. But this doesn’t seem to be the time.
David Johnson will be traded to Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have close to $90 million in cap space and can absorb Johnson’s $10 million salary in 2020. Plus, Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians has seen Johnson at his best and likely believes that with a change of scenery Johnson can again be the player he was in 2016.
Maybe Arizona has to throw in a draft pick in to convince Tampa to take on Johnson’s contract. But the deal will get done.
Cardinals will use their top pick on wide receiver
Yes, Arizona drafted three wide receivers, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler and KeeSean Johnson, in 2019. But let’s be honest: None of the three project to be the No. 1 receiver the Cardinals need. In fact, at this point, it’s fair to wonder whether any of the three will be significant contributors in 2020 and beyond.
To maximize Murray’s talents, Arizona has to have a big-play outside threat. Fitzgerald isn’t that guy at this point in his career, and Christian Kirk is better in the slot. Fortunately for Arizona, the top of the draft is loaded with quality receivers.
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We’ll go so far as to make this prediction: Arizona takes wideout CeeDee Lamb with the eighth overall pick. Lamb played with Murray at Oklahoma, knows the offense — Kingsbury’s system is similar to Lincoln Riley’s scheme — and he averaged 21.4 yards a catch for the Sooners in 2019.
Tight end Dan Arnold will be fantasy sleeper
When the Cardinals claimed Arnold off waivers in early December, the yawn among Arizona fans was palpable. The most common response was, “Who?”
They know who Arnold is now.
Arnold caught two touchdown passes in three games with Arizona and had four catches for 76 yards and a score against the Rams on Sunday. He’s a natural receiver who, at 6 feet 6 inches, can create mismatches in the secondary.
The Cardinals haven’t had a receiving tight end like Arnold in, well, forever, and Kingsbury already has shown he knows how to use him. A 50-catch season with six touchdowns isn’t out of the question.
Patrick Peterson will play out his contract
It’s unlikely Peterson, entering the final year of his contract, gets an extension this offseason. His suspension, subsequent poor play for much of the season and age — he’ll turn 30 in July — should give the Cardinals pause. And if Arizona is competitive in 2020, it would make little sense to move Peterson at the trade deadline.
Thus, Peterson will play out the season without a new deal and then the Cardinals will decide whether they want to try to re-sign him or move on without No. 21.
National spotlight
The Cardinals had one prime-time game this past season, a Halloween Thursday contest against San Francisco. Their lack of exposure will be one reason outside linebacker Chandler Jones won’t get more consideration for Defensive Player of the Year honors, despite 19 sacks and eight forced fumbles.
That won’t be the case in 2020.
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Murray is a special talent, and the NFL knows it. Expect Arizona to land a Sunday night or Monday night game, perhaps as early as the first month of the season.
Budda Baker is rewarded
Baker will be in the final year of his rookie deal in 2020, and there’s no chance the Cardinals let him hit free agency in 2021.
Baker isn’t just coming off a season in which he made the Pro Bowl and finished second on the team with 111 tackles. He slowly emerged as a team leader because of his physical play and energetic personality. It won’t be long before Baker, like Tyrann Mathieu before him, becomes the standard-bearer of Arizona’s defense, and the Cardinals will reward him for not just who he is but how he plays.
(Photo of Kenyan Drake in Seattle: Joe Nicholson / USA Today Sports)