This piece has been in the works for a while, so it’s not a reaction to what’s happened on the ice.
But after Monday’s difficult loss to the Panthers — including an injury to Frederik Andersen of indeterminate length and a poor relief performance from backup Michael Hutchinson — there is suddenly even more urgency for the Maple Leafs to make a deal. Cody Ceci’s tough performance on the blueline didn’t help matters, either.
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Jonas and I combined on this list by doing a little draft, alternating one pick after another. (He was generous and let me go first.) The idea was to choose the Leafs most intriguing trade options first and then go down the list. We went all the way to 15 before deciding to call it.
The Leafs didn’t do anything of consequence at the trade deadline a year ago, after acquiring Jake Muzzin for a pick and two prospects in late January. I highly doubt that’ll be the case this time around.
1. Jeff Petry
Team: Montreal
Age: 32
Position: Right defence
Contract status: One more year (UFA in 2021)
Cap hit: $5.5 million
Mirtle says: There have been reports the Canadiens would want a premium to deal Petry within their division — to either Toronto or Tampa — so we have to temper any expectations here.
It may simply not be doable for the Leafs to pull this trade off, not with what the Habs are going to want in return.
That said, Petry is the best fit of any defenceman available for what Toronto needs. He’s big. He’s a good skater. He moves the puck well and would fit into Sheldon Keefe’s system. He’s signed beyond this year, on a reasonable contract, and he logs more than 23 minutes a game in difficult situations.
He’s a good, all-around D-man — as evidenced by his RAPM chart below. He’s kind of like a Jake Muzzin — who shoots right.
Petry would immediately become the Leafs best RD for the foreseeable future. If the Leafs were relatively confident they could re-sign him beyond 2021, he would probably be worth giving up good assets for, including a roster player and a top prospect. Division rivalry be damned.
2. Josh Manson
Team: Anaheim
Age: 28
Position: Right defence
Contract status: Two more years (UFA in 2022)
Cap hit: $4.1 million
Siegel says: I spent days deciding between Manson and Matt Dumba.
Manson got the nod for the following reasons:
1. Acquisition cost: James, you posited in your recent analysis of the Leafs cap situation heading into the deadline that Manson might cost the Leafs Kasperi Kapanen, along with Cody Ceci’s expiring deal. But I wonder if it takes that much – Kapanen, that is – and I also wonder if that’s a price the Leafs would even pay for the 28-year-old at this point. (Elliotte Friedman suggested on Hockey Night in Canada over the weekend that the Ducks were in love with Manson and likely had no interest in moving him. We’ll see.)
While his underlying numbers have perked up from last season, it’s not been a banner year: Dallas Eakins recently dropped him from the Ducks top pair. Last week against Tampa, Manson logged a season-low 17 minutes and was burned by Nikita Kucherov when he attempted a big hit.
But that doesn’t worry me much, especially since Manson would likely slide onto a 1A pair with Morgan Rielly, with the heaviest lifting left to Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl. Muzzin cost the Leafs two medium prospects and a first-round pick a year ago. He was and is a better player than Manson, and while Manson is younger and has an extra year tacked onto his contract, I can’t imagine the Leafs paying more for Manson than they did for Muzzin. I’m okay with that kind of price.
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2. Extra cap space, keep Kapanen (or Andreas Johnsson): Dumba probably costs you Kapanen or maybe Johnsson, and perhaps more. Trade for Manson and the Leafs not only save a couple million on the cap for the next two seasons (Dumba’s contract, with another three seasons, carries a $6 million cap hit), they also (likely) keep their shiniest assets. That means a roster with Manson and Kapanen or Johnsson.
3. A rugged element: Another reason Manson is appealing — more so, in my opinion, than even Petry: He’s different from what the Leafs already have. At 6-foot-3, 224 pounds, Manson would surpass Muzzin (6-foot-3, 217) as the largest D on the Toronto blue line, and he plays with a nasty, physical punch the Leafs lack beyond the 30-year-old vet. Manson also gets around the ice well for someone that size.
4. Skill development: The Ducks have a knack for finding and developing defencemen; Manson, to that point, was the 160th overall pick in 2011. Still, I wonder what the Leafs’ massive skill development team could do for him. There’s an intriguing package there, with that size and mobility, and Manson, with under 400 career games, probably has some upside to tap still.
Dealing for Manson wouldn’t be without risk. It’s possible, with his 29th birthday around the corner in October, that he is what he is at this point and that he’s not getting much better from here. But I’d argue, given the presumed cost, those extra years on the contract at a modest price, and the organization’s penchant for development, that Manson is the best choice for the Leafs.
3. Adam Larsson and Jesse Puljujarvi
Team: Edmonton
Age: 27/21
Position: Right defence/Right wing
Contract status: One more year (UFA in 2021)/Restricted free agent
Cap hit: $4.166 million/Unsigned
Mirtle says: I continue to argue there’s potentially an interesting trade to be made between Toronto and Edmonton. It’ll be harder to make before the deadline than in the off-season, but perhaps not impossible.
The Oilers desperately still need more help on the wing, and that’s an area that the Leafs have depth to spare. The Oilers are also very intrigued by the potential of someone like Kapanen to play with Connor McDavid and give them more of a threat up the lineup.
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The problem is that Edmonton and Toronto both have designs on making the playoffs right now, which makes a deal more complex to pull off. And I don’t think the Oilers would be able to sacrifice a defenceman who would have enough value to land someone like Kapanen 1-for-1.
If the trade was expanded, however, to include other assets, perhaps there could be more of a fit. Perhaps the Leafs could get an upgrade on defence and an intriguing player with potential that would make the transaction make more sense. Someone like Jesse Puljujarvi, who at 21 is lighting up the Finnish league and wants out of Edmonton.
Larsson is someone who, while beat up at times this year, would be an upgrade over a player like Cody Ceci and give Keefe another defensive, dependable option in the top four and on the penalty kill.
And getting someone like Puljujarvi, who has a lot to prove and would likely be a bargain on his next contract, could replace some of what the Leafs would lose in Kapanen over time.
I don’t envision a deal like this being 2-for-1 exactly, as there would have to be other assets involved, but something in here could make sense for both teams given their needs.
4. Mathew Dumba
Team: Minnesota
Age: 25
Position: Right defence
Contract status: Three more years (UFA in 2023)
Cap hit: $6 million
Siegel says: The acquisition-cost question is real.
Another question: Why would Minnesota trade Dumba at all? He’s not had a great year, but he’s a popular, likable, homegrown piece who plays a coveted position. That said, the Wild could probably use some extra young zest up front, given that Zach Parise is 35, Mats Zuccarello is 32, Eric Staal is 35, Mikko Koivu is 36 and so on.
Kapanen would be a lock for top-six minutes in Minny.
This could be the right time to pounce on Dumba, too, when he’s on pace for fewer than 30 points and still carrying three more pricey years on his contract. Get Dumba and the Leafs can finally put to rest question marks on the right side which have lingered for years. A 1-2-3 of Dumba, Holl, and Timothy Liljegren — assuming he’s not in the deal — looks all right alongside Rielly, Rasmus Sandin, Travis Dermott, and maybe, Muzzin.
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The Leafs would be buying Dumba’s age 26, 27, and 28-year-old seasons, and getting him at a price that may just deliver value if he’s able to eat heavy minutes in the top four, beat goalies with a wicked shot, and batter opponents physically.
The cost might be high, but Dumba could be worth it.
5. P.K. Subban
Team: New Jersey
Age: 30
Position: Right defence
Contract status: Two more years (UFA in 2022)
Cap hit: $9 million
Mirtle says: Wouldn’t this be fun.
The Devils would obviously have to retain some salary — perhaps as much as half of this enormous deal. And Subban has obviously struggled this year as he appears to be slowing down as he approaches his 31st birthday this spring.
But in watching him play of late, it’s clear he still has some game left. In the right situation, he could recapture some of the dynamism that made him so dangerous in Montreal and Nashville, in my opinion.
My reservations? What would you have to give up? How much would New Jersey be willing to retain? Where would he play in the lineup, given he is essentially another Tyson Barrie-like defenceman on a team that needs a bit more defensive acumen?
Those are tough things to answer right now, with the Devils relying on an interim GM and their path forward uncertain. But it’s clear that Subban could be had. And there could be a compelling redemption story there, in his hometown, if the price is right and the player motivated to prove his doubters wrong.
6. Sami Vatanen
Team: New Jersey
Age: 28
Position: Right defence
Contract status: Expiring (UFA in 2020)
Cap hit: $4.875 million
Siegel says: No rentals, right? Maybe not. The Leafs may decide the prices for what’s out there on the non-rental market aren’t worthwhile but still want to an upgrade on defence. If so, Vatanen is the guy.
He’s a right shot who can dish the rock effectively, swallow up minutes reliably — perhaps alongside Rielly. The Leafs have reportedly had interest in him in the past and could even contemplate bringing him back next season if the fit/price is right. The Devils need pieces to build for the future; maybe all it takes to get Vatanen is a second-tier prospect and/or pick.
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Is that justified for a quarter season and (maybe) some playoff games? Is Vatanen enough of an upgrade on what the Leafs have already got?
For a Cup contender that’s no sure bet to get into the playoffs, I would argue he is.
7. Jake Gardiner
Team: Carolina
Age: 29
Position: Left defence
Contract status: Three more years (UFA in 2023)
Cap hit: $4.05 million
Mirtle says: Memories…
Talk has it Gardiner has already proven a divisive player after leaving Toronto, as it’s not clear whether or not the Hurricanes are committed to keeping him even through the first year of a four-year contract he signed only this past fall. Some in the organization are fans of the player; others are not.
If the idea is to have Gardiner replace Ceci, not solve all of their defensive issues, the Leafs acquiring him could make sense. It would likely mean Morgan Rielly (or one of the kids) would have to shift over to the right side, as Gardiner’s not comfortable playing on his off side. But this might be a workable setup given the two friends have always wanted to play together:
Muzzin – Holl
Gardiner – Rielly
Sandin – Barrie
Not ideal, perhaps, but probably better than the status quo. Most teams in the NHL, after all, have some lefties playing RD, given the handedness imbalance leaguewide.
And despite what Gardiner said about not wanting to play in another pressure cooker market, when he turned down Montreal in July, I think he would make an exception given how many friends he has in the Leafs organization.
8. Alec Martinez
Team: Los Angeles
Age: 32
Position: Defence
Contract status: One more year (UFA in 2021)
Cap hit: $4 million
Siegel says: What’s attractive about Martinez?
One, he’s got heaps of playoff and Stanley Cup experience (x2). That can be overvalued but won’t hurt either on a Leafs defence that’s only moderately experienced. Two, Martinez has also played a bunch with Muzzin, and while it’s likely that Muzzin sticks with Holl, Martinez would be a fine fit next to Rielly, offering him the kind of stability that Ron Hainsey once brought. A left shooter who can play the right, he’d also give Sheldon Keefe one more comfortable option to put on the ice at end of a game to protect a lead.
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Right now those minutes are often going to Ceci.
Martinez probably doesn’t cost too much either.
What might give the Leafs pause? Martinez will be 33 when next season gets going and probably isn’t worth his $4 million price tag. But as a Band-Aid solution for the next season and a half, Martinez makes some sense.
9. Alexandar Georgiev
Team: NY Rangers
Age: 23
Position: Backup goaltender
Contract status: Expiring (RFA in 2020)
Cap hit: $792,500
Mirtle says: The Leafs really need another option in goal. Both for the remainder of this season and going forward after that.
Georgiev is a .913 save percentage goalie in only 67 career NHL appearances, so the body of work is small and the numbers are merely solid. But he’s been playing on some porous New York teams and is still just 23 years old.
He’s an intriguing prospect, to be sure. And Toronto has inquired about his availability multiple times this season. But the Leafs need to be careful to not give up too much given it’s difficult to know what, exactly, he can give them long term.
If the Rangers want Kapanen or Johnsson, for example, the Leafs should walk away immediately. No inexperienced backup is worth a 20-goal scorer, no matter where they’re playing in your lineup.
10. Nick Bonino
Team: Nashville
Age: 31
Position: Centre
Contract status: One more year (UFA in 2021)
Cap hit: $4.1 million
Siegel says: This one might be a stretch.
But the Leafs have a largely under-the-radar question mark in the third centre spot. Alex Kerfoot was supposed to be that guy, the replacement for Nazem Kadri, but Keefe doesn’t seem totally sold on him there. His only other options are Pierre Engvall, a rookie with limited experience in the middle, and 36-year-old Jason Spezza.
Maybe it’s a position the Leafs should consider solidifying with a dependable vet like Bonino? Now, the Predators are trying to make the playoffs, and Bonino has been one of their more reliable players. Even though he’s been buried in the D-zone against gruelling competition this season, the 31-year-old has been making it rain 5-on-5, with legit underlying numbers.
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Keefe could play him against anyone in any spot and leave the lighter fare to Auston Matthews and John Tavares.
A two-time Cup winner in Pittsburgh, Bonino does have another year left on his deal with a price-tag – plus whatever he costs in trade — that might not be worthwhile for someone who’s probably scoring 12-18 goals and 35-40 points. And it does feel counter-intuitive to deal Kadri and then flip assets not long after to try to replace him again. But given their challenges filling his old spot, it might be a worthwhile pursuit – for Bonino or someone else like him.
11. Robin Lehner
Team: Chicago
Age: 28
Position: Goaltender
Contract status: Expiring (UFA in 2020)
Cap hit: $5 million
Mirtle says: This would be bold. And who knows what the Blackhawks decide to do with their two pending UFA goalies given they’re still in a dogfight for a wild-card spot.
There’s a scenario here where Chicago falls off and decides to sell. And given Lehner has an expiring deal, they could also eat half of it in order to move him to the highest bidder.
If Andersen’s injury ends up being more than a short scare, the Leafs will likely need to pursue more than simply a backup option. Lehner is the best one who plausibly could be available after a .930 save percentage last year with the Islanders and .922 so far this season. He would also give Toronto an option should they decide to move on from Andersen in advance of his contract expiring in 2021.
12. David Savard
Team: Columbus
Age: 29
Position: Right defence
Contract status: One more year (UFA in 2021)
Cap hit: $4.25 million
Siegel says: Would the surprising Blue Jackets even consider moving a popular, useful, long-time member (nine years) of the organization like Savard?
Maybe not.
But after loading up last year to make a run, and with questionable hopes of actually winning a Cup this season — and with Savard, on the verge of turning 30 and a UFA in 2021 — maybe Columbus would bite on help for the future (and present with Cody Ceci a logical part of any trade). Like Manson, Savard would give the Leafs what they don’t have much of on defence — a big body (6-foot-2, 229 pounds); another right shot under contract for next season; experience (over 500 NHL games); and a more brutish meat-and-potatoes game, including on the penalty kill.
Savard makes a lot more sense than paying to bring back a more familiar presence like Ron Hainsey.
13. Sam Bennett
Team: Calgary
Age: 23
Position: Centre/Wing
Contract status: One more year (RFA in 2021)
Cap hit: $2.55 million
Mirtle says: The Leafs have been intrigued by Bennett for a while now, with scouts deployed to watch the Flames. And he’s clearly fallen out of favour in Calgary, where he’s playing less than 13 minutes a game for the first time in his career and has just four goals and eight points in 37 games.
How would that help the Leafs?
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Well, the organization still needs centre depth, as evidenced by the fact they’ve been playing Engvall and Spezza at 3C of late. They are also relying on Freddy The Goat in key minutes at 4C. Simply having another player who could fill-in at either centre or wing makes sense. Especially given Bennett’s pedigree.
Bennett fits with Kyle Dubas’ pursuit of reclamation projects with obvious talent, along the lines of Nic Petan. And it’s not like he would break the bank either.
14. Ryan Miller
Team: Anaheim
Age: 39
Position: Backup goaltender
Contract status: Expiring (UFA in 2020)
Cap hit: $1.125 million
Siegel says: Maybe if Manson ends up being their target on defence, the Leafs can try to tack Miller onto the deal.
Miller is right at the end of his career, with his 40th birthday ahead in July. But he may just be the right solution, albeit temporarily, for the Leafs unsteady backup spot. Miller has posted strong numbers in a supporting role this season, including a 46-save performance over the weekend against the Kings. He’s up to a .931 5-on-5 save percentage, topping Georgiev by a bit (.916) and Michael Hutchinson by a lot (.900). Miller was an elite No. 1 for years with the Sabres, even winning the Vezina Trophy once. He could be just what the Leafs need behind Andersen: a reliable option down the stretch and trustworthy security blanket if Andersen got hurt.
According to Cap Friendly, Miller does hold a strict no-trade list, with only six teams he can be dealt to. It’s unlikely the Leafs are one of those teams on there and it’s possible that Miller has no intention of leaving behind sunny Southern California.
But maybe he wants to chase a Cup in what could be his final NHL season? Maybe he’ll waive it to try and pitch in somewhere else?
15. Dylan DeMelo
Team: Ottawa
Age: 26
Position: Right defence
Contract status: Expiring (UFA in 2020)
Cap hit: $900,000
Mirtle says: Maybe I’m missing something, but why wouldn’t the rebuilding Senators want to keep DeMelo?
And, yet, all indications at this point are that he will be dealt. Perhaps by choice? Given his age and performance this season, he could be an excellent upgrade on the Leafs third pair, someone who could replace Cody Ceci’s minutes.
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He may not be as big of a name as some of those listed above, but DeMelo will likely come with a cheaper acquisition cost and his cap hit isn’t a problem to absorb at all. He’s a rental, sure, but perhaps that’s the best the Leafs are going to be able to manage in a climate where the prices could be sky-high for teams trying to buy help on D.
RAPM charts courtesy Evolving-Hockey
(Top photo: Claus Andersen/Getty Images)