Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s sophomore surge, Bo Bichette is an All-Star, win totals: 10 predictions for the 2020 Blue Jays

The baseball offseason is winding down and we’re less than two weeks away from the start of spring training.

The Blue Jays pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Dunedin, Fla., on Feb. 13 and the first full team workout is scheduled for Feb. 17. This year, there will be plenty of new faces at camp after a busy winter for the Blue Jays. The rotation has been nearly completely rebuilt from a year ago, most notably with the signature signing of lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. Meanwhile, the rookies who headlined camp last year — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Danny Jansen and more — are all a year wiser now, having experienced playing in the majors.

With spring training on the horizon, it felt like the right time to bust out our predictions for the upcoming season. Yes, we’re still nearly two months from Opening Day, but, if anything, we can enjoy this blissful period of waiting before some (or all!) of these 10 predictions are proven wrong.

1. Blue Jays rotation is a lot better than it was a year ago

We’re starting with an easy one. And if this prediction doesn’t come true, the 2020 season has gone terribly wrong for the Blue Jays. Last season, the Blue Jays used 21 different starting pitchers who combined for a 5.25 ERA that ranked 22nd in the majors.

The addition of Ryu gives the Blue Jays a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter to lead their staff. Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson, who have had remarkable reliability over their careers and have performed at league-average levels in the past, should be a stabilizing force for the unit. Matt Shoemaker is healthy, and if he can continue where he left off last season, before his ACL tear, he gives the Blue Jays another solid, veteran starter. Ryan Borucki, Trent Thornton and Shun Yamaguchi, along with a few others, will compete for the fifth starter spot. Only one of them will earn it, meaning the Blue Jays are poised to have considerably more starting depth, with hurlers such as Anthony Kay and T.J. Zeuch likely to start the season at Triple-A Buffalo. Then, if all is going well, at some point the rotation should get a lift with the call-up of top prospect Nate Pearson.

It’s a rotation that still looks like it’ll rank below AL East counterparts in New York, Boston and Tampa Bay — but, should no disaster strike, Toronto’s rotation should be able to keep its collective ERA below 5.00 this season, an improvement over last year.

2. Vlad hits 30 homers – and has a better season at the plate

Last season, I predicted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would finish the season with 30 home runs. He did not. Nevertheless, I am undeterred in making the same prediction once again.

This season, Guerrero will finish the season with 30 home runs — and on top of that, he’ll fare much better in his sophomore year than he did in his uber-hyped-up rookie season. After respectful but not electrifying numbers at the plate in Year 1 — a .772 OPS with 15 home runs — Guerrero is poised to rebound in Year 2, so predicted colleague Eno Sarris, who named Guerrero among his top five bounce-back candidates in 2020.

Based on projections that consider exit velocities plus his age and track record in the minors, Guerrero is a prime candidate to perform better this year than he did last year. With one important caveat, however: He needs to hit the ball up, not toward the ground, which he did far too often last year — as evidenced by his average launch angle of 6.7 degrees, which ranked 265th out of 281 batters with a minimum of 200 batted ball events.

Guerrero should be much more comfortable in the league now, having experienced the full rigours of a major-league season. If Guerrero lifts the ball more, plus comes into spring training fitter, here’s predicting he’ll deliver on his potent potential.

3. Ryu makes at least 25 starts

It’s no secret, Ryu has dealt with a multitude of injuries throughout his career. He sat out the entire 2015 season while recovering from left shoulder surgery. Then, he missed nearly all of 2016 because of an elbow issue. Over the past three years, however, Ryu has averaged 22.7 starts per season. He made 29 starts last year, the most since his rookie season in 2013. It was also the best season of his career, leading the National League with a 2.32 ERA.

The Blue Jays made a four-year, $80 million commitment to Ryu knowing his complete medical history. In other words, they have reason to believe he’s fit to lead their starting staff this year and beyond. Of course, injury risk is ever-present, especially for a pitcher such as Ryu, with his history and turning age 33 next month. At the same time, the South Korean southpaw relies on feel and finesse to get batters out, not velocity. Those soft-tossers tend to age better. The Blue Jays don’t need Ryu to be a 200-inning hurler, but if they get 150 quality innings from him this season — and this prediction says they will — the early returns on their investment will look good.

4. Travis Shaw returns to his 2017-18 form

Two seasons ago, Shaw hit 32 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers. The season before that, in 2017, he hit 31. His 63 total homers over that two-season span ranked him in the top 20 in all of baseball. Then, in 2019, his offence fell off a cliff. He batted a woeful .157/.281/.270 with only seven home runs in 86 games. He was non-tendered by the Brewers following the season. The Blue Jays signed him to a one-year “prove it” deal worth $4 million.

Shaw blamed his poor 2019 season on a swing change that went awry. But last month, he said he has gone back to the swing that powered him through his two previous seasons and is feeling confident. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections forecast Shaw rebounding this year to a respectable slash line of .232/.329/.441 with 20 home runs. That’s already a fairly nice rebound — and if he outperforms projections, he’ll be right about where he was two seasons ago. Plus, his strikeout rate of 33 percent last season was a career-high, and it’s reasonable to believe he can get closer to his career norm of 23.4 percent this season.

Last season, the Blue Jays bought low on another ex-Brewers player, Eric Sogard, who was coming off a poor season, and they reaped the rewards as he went on to have a career year with Toronto. You heard it here first: Shaw will follow suit this year.

5. Bichette is named to All-Star team

For 46 games following his call-up from Triple A last season, Bichette played like an All-Star, hitting .311/.358/.571 with 29 extra-base hits. Admittedly, it was a small sample size, but in his first taste of the major leagues, Bichette looked wholly unfazed by the elite competition he was facing. With that experience guiding him, he has a full season ahead of him in 2020, and he’s entering it motivated to improve on his rookie campaign.

“There’s definitely things that I want to accomplish,” he said last month. “I’d love to be the MVP of the league. I’d love to make an All-Star game. I’d love all that stuff, but for me it’s more about having goals that I can control and those goals are just making sure every day I’m getting better, becoming a better teammate, becoming a better player on the field, playing hard every day, working hard every day to put myself in a position to succeed. So that’s what I’m trying to focus on.”

We’re not betting against Bichette. By midseason, he will be able to check off, “make an All-Star game” from his list of goals.

6. Pearson makes his first big-league start before All-Star break

As the Blue Jays ace in waiting, it’s a matter of when, not if, Pearson makes his MLB debut this season. With a fastball that sits in the high 90s and can hit triple digits, the Blue Jays’ top prospect has exciting potential. Baseball America named him their No. 7 prospect on their Top 100 list, writing, “Pearson has the body and stuff to sit at the front of Toronto’s rotation in the near future.”

But of his 101 2/3 innings last year, only 18 came in Triple A. The Blue Jays will most likely want the 23-year-old right-hander to get more seasoning in Buffalo before he’s pitching in the majors. He’ll also have an innings limit to deal with — last month, Pearson didn’t know the particulars yet, but around 150 innings seem reasonable — which could mean he’s eased into the season or shut down early, potentially impacting the timing of his call-up, too. Don’t expect Pearson to crack the Opening Day roster, but assuming full health, sometime within the first half of the season, Pearson will have thrown his first big-league pitch.

7. Danny Jansen becomes a threat from both sides of the plate

A silver lining to last season was Danny Jansen emerging as one of the best defensive catchers in the American League, finishing as a finalist for a Gold Glove in his rookie season. But his offence was lacking, as he finished the season with a slash line of .207/.279/.360 with 13 home runs. The 24-year-old catcher should be granted a mulligan for that offensive effort, though, considering all that was on his plate with game planning and managing a pitching staff that cycled through 39 different pitchers.

A glance at Jansen’s statistics viewed against his expected statistics, via Baseball Savant, such as xBA, xSLG and xwOBA, also shows he was rather unlucky at the plate. (All numbers based on minimum 350 plate appearances.)

Jansen was well-regarded as a hitter in the minor leagues. With a full season of experience in the majors, an improved technique behind the plate, plus a pitching staff that looks to be more stable than it was a year ago, Jansen can focus more on his offence. By season’s end, Jansen should be more of the all-around threat he’s capable of being.

8. Ken Giles will be traded before the July 31 deadline

Giles likely would have been dealt away last July, if not for a lingering elbow issue that ultimately scared off buyers. Still, an impending free agent following the season, Giles remains the Blue Jays’ best trade asset. An extension could occur, but if there’s no movement on that this spring, ultimately, look for the Blue Jays to decide they’re better off trading their elite closer for future assets.

Bonus prediction: Giles stays healthy all through the season, pitches great and is traded to the Yankees.

9. Biggio starts a game at five different positions (or more)

Much like last season, Biggio will primarily play second base, but his ability to move around the diamond is a valuable asset — and one that will be deployed by manager Charlie Montoyo. Like many others on the roster, Biggio will get a turn at designated hitter. But the 24-year-old can play first and third base, plus right and left field. There’s even been talk this winter of experimenting with Biggio in centre field, assuming he gets some practice fielding the position during spring training.

In 2019, Biggio started at five different positions — first, second, DH, left and right field. He’ll match that this year, and potentially exceed it.

10. The Blue Jays finish the season at 81-81

Last season, following Bichette’s call-up, the Blue Jays went 27-28 — almost .500. (Of note: Bichette did not play in the team’s final nine games due to a concussion.)

By using WAR and Fangraphs’ Depth Charts projections, we can see that with the offseason additions, plus expected internal improvements, the Blue Jays have added about 10 wins. If we use last season’s 67-95 record as a baseline, that improves the Blue Jays to a 77-win team. But we also know last season they performed better as a team in the second half than the first, when the next-generation crew was finally together in the majors. The Depth Charts projection also does not account for a player such as Pearson, since he’s not on the Jays’ 40-man yet. So, with a better roster, more experience for the youngsters, some lucky bounces, a few surprises and a Pearson call-up, the Blue Jays will improve to a .500 team this season.

(Photo of Bichette and Guerrero: Cole Burston / Getty Images)