A hard look at the Blues’ issues of late, what to make of them and whether it’s time to worry

Many might remember that a year ago at this time the Blues were in the midst of a franchise-record 11-game winning streak.

Fewer, though, probably recall that after the winning streak ended, they went 4-5-2 in their next 11 games, including a 2-0 loss to lowly Ottawa on March 14, 2019.

“The effort is there, the mindset is there,” Blues goalie Jake Allen told reporters after falling to the Senators.

The Blues insisted they would be fine, and we all know how that turned out, winning the Stanley Cup. And ever since they pulled off the impossible, there’s been a small fear about overreacting to poor play by the club.

Let’s take a closer look at what we’re talking about …

• They lost four straight games from Oct. 12-19, but then won nine of their next 10.
• They lost three straight from Nov. 12-16, but then won six of their next eight.
• They lost three straight from Dec. 4-10, but then won eight in a row.
• They lost three straight from Dec. 31-Jan. 4, but then won four in a row.

There was legitimate cause for concern, but looking back, one would be hard-pressed to remember exactly the specific problems because they were quickly resolved.

But now the Blues find themselves in a funk we haven’t seen in more than a calendar year. They are 2-5-2 in their past nine games, and one of those victories was a 5-4 shootout win over Calgary, which coach Craig Berube called a “bad hockey game.” In the past 28 days, which included the bye week and All-Star break, their only regulation win was last week’s 6-3 thumping of Carolina.

To no one’s surprise, the Blues believe they’ll be OK. And it bears repeating that the top team in the Western Conference can make us all look foolish by sounding skeptical. But that doesn’t mean there shouldn’t a hard look at the club’s current issues of late, what to make of them and whether there’s reason to worry.

The Blues’ lead in the Central Division was 10 points on Jan. 15, but in a stretch that has watched the team fall twice to the two teams just below them in the standings — 5-3 to Colorado on Jan. 18 and 3-2 to Dallas in OT Saturday night — the gap is now just three points. The good news is they’re headed on their annual Dad’s Trip, which has brought them luck in the past, but the only thing that will have them looking like we’ve come to know is some old-fashion hard work.

(Isaiah J. Downing / USA Today)

In two seasons since taking over for Mike Yeo, Berube has been widely viewed as a players’ coach. That doesn’t mean soft, it means there’s a mutual respect. He’s been critical at times, but shows more support than anything. That hasn’t necessarily changed, but he’s been a little more biting in his remarks lately, especially after a 4-2 loss to Winnipeg Thursday.

Of the overall performance against the Jets, Berube said, “You’ve got to ask yourself are we playing hard enough for 60 minutes?”

Of failing on another five-on-three power play, he said, “Again, we can’t blast it over the net. You’re not going to score there.”

Of the three goals on 24 shots allowed by Jordan Binnington, he said, “There’s three going in our net every night and that’s not good enough.”

And of taking rookie Jordan Kyrou out of the lineup for Saturday’s game against Dallas, he said the 21-year-old has “got to understand that this is the NHL and there’s a certain way you play up here.” Kyrou is certainly on the backburner for now, but that’s noteworthy because it shows Berube doesn’t have time to be messing around as he attempts to put together a lineup that can get the club back on track.

Berube touched on a few of the problem areas in those comments, and we’ll get to a couple more over the course of the article, supporting them with some analytics and video.

Where’s the desperation?

Blues general manager Doug Armstrong mentioned before the 2019-20 season began that it would be difficult to duplicate the self-imposed pressure the club felt in the second half of last season when it was essentially forced to win every game in order to make the playoffs.

If anything, it’s impressive that the Blues have followed up a Stanley Cup with points in 41 of 56 games (32-15-9) and that one could count on one hand the number of clunkers. So it hasn’t been a matter of desperation this season — the effort has been there — but lately it’s felt like the team has erred too much on the side of “we’ll be fine” rather than executing better.

That’s semi-understandable because with a five-point lead in the conference, they aren’t in a position where they must have a ‘W’ every night, and even if they were, they showed last season that they’re capable of that. But it’s getting to the point in the season when every game will have a playoff feel and implications, and there’s no guarantee it will finish like it’s gone so far if they don’t apply themselves more.

“Our mindset this time last year, it was a little different than I think it is now, I think,” Berube said. “We’ve got to get that mindset back. Last year, we were playing desperate hockey right now, and this year, maybe we need to bring in a little more urgency to our game.”

In the nine-game stretch, each of the Blues’ seven losses has been theoretically by one goal. They lost two in overtime and the other five were one-goal games with empty-net goals tacked on.

So it’s not that the Blues haven’t been competitive; they’ve outshot their opponents and outperformed them on the power play among other advantages. Instead, it’s been their shortcomings — the goals they haven’t scored, the ones they’ve let in and the leads they’ve let slip — that have cost them.

The Blues scored the first goal in 26 of their first 47 games this season and their record in those games was 21-0-5. In their past nine games, they’ve gotten the first goal in five, but gone just 2-1-2. They surrendered the lead in two of their seven losses, including Saturday against Dallas when they blew a 2-0 advantage.

“At times maybe we’re coasting a little bit, hoping we’re going to win hockey games, and at the start of the year, we did what we needed to win hockey games,” Blues forward Brayden Schenn said. “I just think it’s getting back to being desperate, being hungry and trying to win the division.”

Lacking finish

As illustrated above, the Blues have averaged more shots attempts per game in their past nine games, outshooting their opponent in six of the nine, but accuracy continues to be a challenge, especially in what are considered high-danger chances for.

Since Jan. 15, the start of the nine-game stretch, the Blues have netted nine goals on 73 high-danger chances for a shooting percentage of 16.67. Their high-danger shooting percentage for the season is 15.98, which ranks No. 24 in the NHL, and only three of the seven teams below them are currently holding a spot in the playoffs.

The team missed four open nets against Dallas — one each for Colton Parayko, Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn and lastly Ryan O’Reilly with less than five minutes remaining in regulation.

Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin made a quick leg save on O’Reilly, but had the Blues center lifted the puck over Khudobin’s leg on his attempt, the Blues would have went ahead 3-2. Instead, the game went to overtime, where they lost by that score.

“We had a great chance in the third period to go ahead, Ryan O’Reilly there,” Berube said. “Yeah, there’s chances … you’ve got to execute.”

The Blues got both of their goals Saturday from Parayko, and Thursday it was Parayko and fellow defenseman Carl Gunnarsson who scored, meaning the club has gone two games without a goal from a forward, dating back to Zach Sanford’s third-period tally against Carolina.

In fact, it’s been the defense and Sanford who have helped carry the offense lately. He recently put together a career-high six-game point streak in which he had four goals (all even-strength) and five assists. None of the Blues’ other top-six forwards have scored an even-strength goal in the past three games, and they’ve accounted for just six in the past nine games (two by O’Reilly, two by David Perron, one by Schenn and one by Robert Thomas).

It’s great that Sanford is contributing more, but history shows that he can’t be counted on for this kind of clip, so it doesn’t bode well if Sanford is leading the way on offense.

“It’s kind of been a theme lately, no doubt about it, but every night you’re going to get chances and not score on all them,” Schenn said. “We feel like we had some chances and we’ve got to find ways to score goals and win games.”

No bottom-six identity

In part due to injury but also because of ineffectiveness, the Blues are creating nothing — offense or identity — with their third and fourth lines.

After going on a scoring binge by his standard, Tyler Bozak has just one assist in his past nine games. Alexander Steen has been better offensively, but he has one point (a goal) in his past eight games. Sammy Blais, who has replaced Kyrou on the line, has played just six games after missing 28 with a wrist injury, and he has one point (a goal) in his return.

The fourth line, also affected by injury, has been quiet as well. MacKenzie MacEachern has one point (an assist) in his past 15 games. Jacob de la Rose has two points (both assists) in his past 17 games. Ivan Barbashev has one point (an assist) in his past nine games, and Troy Brouwer, a healthy scratch on most nights, has one point (a goal) in 13 games.

It’s led to a heavy usage of the top lines, with Perron, Schenn, Schwartz and O’Reilly each logging 16-plus minutes of even-strength ice time per game, while the third line is around 12 minutes per game, and the fourth line less than eight. In addition, perhaps because of the constant moving parts on the fourth line, the group hasn’t been remotely physical, which is what the Blues have been built on in the past.

Berube acknowledged recently that the club is playing “too cute” and has to get back to a style in which it is getting “pucks deep, go to work, play that game, wear teams down.”

Yes, the Blues are playing without Oskar Sundqvist, who has missed the past six games with a lower-body injury. His absence is always felt, as the team’s record shows (27-9-8 with him in the lineup this season and just 5-6-1 without him). But Sundqvist isn’t coming back soon — “he’s a ways away,” Berube said Saturday — and one player shouldn’t make that big of a difference anyway.

Is Binnington nervous?

In any discussion about the Blues’ starting goaltender, it must be remembered that he led the franchise to its first Stanley Cup. But while keeping that in mind, we can recall what Martin Brodeur said about Binnington during the rookie’s record-breaking run last season.

“That’s where you see young goalies are able to be successful because they don’t know better,” Brodeur told The Athletic. “They don’t feel the pressure and they just make the saves they need to make. I actually thought it was pretty easy after two years, like, ‘This is nothing.’ I was young, and to me, everything came easy. I played on a good team and I felt that I could beat anybody I wanted. Then we never won a series for the next four or five years after that. There’s that innocence when you’re a rookie, you don’t know any better. You feel that a loss is a loss and you move on. You don’t put extra pressure on yourself. I think you have more of an issue when you get older because you understand the pressure of it.”

Is that what’s going on with Binnington, whose save percentage this season is .910, down from a .927 last season. Since Jan. 2, he’s 5-4-2 with 3.38 goals-against average and .878 save percentage, which ranks 20th among goalies with six or more starts. And in his past seven starts, he’s 2-3-2 with an .870 save percentage, allowing three or more goals in each game.

On Thursday, the Blues fell behind Winnipeg, 2-0, but tied the score on goals by Parayko and Gunnarsson. But in the third period, Binnington couldn’t control a rebound, allowing Andrew Copp to put the Jets ahead, 3-2, with 10:56 left in regulation.

Here’s a look at the goal, which forced the Blues to pull their goalie late, leading to an empty-netter to wrap up the scoring.

“The initial thought there is control your rebounds,” Binnington said afterwards. “I’ve got to be there and got to keep working and it will come back around.”

On Saturday, Binnington was better as the Blues opened a 2-0 lead on Dallas on back-to-back goals by Parayko. But they coughed it up in the second period, and then in overtime, Binnington gave up the game-winner between the legs for a 3-2 OT loss to the Stars.

“I thought he was good,” Berube said. “I don’t think he liked the last goal. But for the most part, he played a solid game.”

Nonetheless, Berube acknowledged afterward that he considered going with backup Allen against Dallas, and after four straight starts by Binnington, he might go that direction Tuesday in Anaheim. In his past 12 starts, Allen has a 2.00 goals-against average and a .937 save percentage, giving up three-plus goals in just three of the 12 games.

Faulk still struggling

It’s not all on the goaltending, as the Blues defense has allowed 73 high-danger chances against in their past nine games, giving up goals on seven of them.

On Jan. 31, after the Blues fell behind Edmonton 2-0, they tied the game on goals by Perron and Thomas. But in the third period, Justin Faulk made a coverage mistake that cost the club a goal by the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl for a 3-2 deficit, after which they tacked on an empty-netter.

That’s not to single out Faulk, but among Blues defensemen, he’s been on the ice for the second-most even-strength goals against, despite averaging the fourth-most even-strength ice time per game. He’s been on the ice for 44 even-strength goals (one fewer than Pietrangelo) while averaging 18:21 of even-strength ice time.

That’s concerning because the Blues believed they’d be able to count on Faulk to play in the top four, but recently he was dropped to the third pairing, playing a season-low 14:56 against Winnipeg on Thursday and taken off the second power-play unit. In his place, the Blues are using Gunnarsson in the top pairing with Pietrangelo, and though he’s been serviceable, it could be troublesome for a team to rely on a player who’s had a tough time staying healthy.

In the big picture, the Faulk mishap in Edmonton is more an indictment on the Blues’ inability to make clutch plays in tight games, which there have been plenty of in the last stretch.

“The hockey is tight right now,” Berube said. “We’ve got to dig in more. We have to have a better mindset going into games of being harder to play against. It’s a lot of playoff hockey going on. I’d like to see us get in more of that mindset right now. There’s a lot of good stuff’s going on, but not the No. 1 thing: wins. That’s what we care about. So as coaches and players, you’ve got to find ways to win games, so we’re going to probably nitpick a little bit here and there about certain things. That’s what we do.”

Time to worry?

Berube doesn’t think so.

He was asked if it’s possible for a “we’ll be OK” attitude to permeate the club.

“Yeah, there can be, yeah,” Berube said.

Does he sense that with the Blues?

“No, I don’t think I see that at all,” Berube replied. “I think if I go back to the games, they’ve played some pretty good hockey.”

But the Blues need to play better. They might soon prove to all of us that they’re fine, but this feeling of frustration has lingered longer than it has since the team turned around its 2018-19 season.

“Last year, we were at the bottom climbing to the top,” Allen said. “Now we’re at the top trying to stay at the top. Sometimes that urgency slips because you’re sort of comfortable, even though you’re in first place. Last year every game was crucial for us, and I think that’s what (Berube) is trying to say is we need to have that same mindset. If we have that urgency, it could be the difference in a lot of games. The other teams are all clawing for their spots, they’re clawing and fighting to win. They are us last year, so we know that feeling. So we need to know that every single game is going to be tough, tight. If we get that urgency back, I think it’ll just complete our game.”

(Top photo: Scott Rovak / NHLI via Getty Images)