Midway through the Philadelphia Flyers’ most pivotal stretch of the season, they are right where they were when it began: smack in the middle of a hyper-competitive playoff race.
While their sweep of the Florida Panthers temporarily turned a 10-team race for the eight Eastern Conference playoff spots into a nine-team battle, the Flyers’ inability to secure points in tight matchups against the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning kept them from surging up the standings. They sit in the final wild-card spot in the East, a point ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes and a point behind the Columbus Blue Jackets. The postseason battle couldn’t be tighter.
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Still, aside from an inexplicable flop against the New Jersey Devils two weeks ago and a horrendous first period in Brooklyn last Tuesday, the Flyers have played very good hockey in February. And with many of their playoff rivals starting to slip a bit, Philadelphia has an opportunity to rapidly climb the Metropolitan Division standings — if it can keep winning.
1. Even-strength play returning to past heights
After the first nine games of the season, a previously unimaginable thought began to creep into the minds of statistically inclined Flyers fans: Had new head coach Alain Vigneault somehow turned the club into a play-driving juggernaut?
The numbers were staggering — the Flyers led the league in Corsi for percentage (54.95 percent) and expected goals for percentage (57.14 percent), even after adjusting for score effects. After years of mediocrity by 5-on-5 metrics, suddenly, Philadelphia was controlling the shot and chance battles, and doing so at league-high rates.
That optimism took a hit during the team’s 10th and 11th games — blowouts at the hands of the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins. While the Flyers recovered from those losses, they then settled in as more of a break-even play-driving club, befitting their reputation as a “good not great” team. The dream of an advanced-stat juggernaut quickly dissipated.
Well, it might just be re-emerging.
Over the past 10 games, the Flyers have driven play better than they did in those eye-catching first nine contests. They may not rank at the top of the league charts over the span, as they did in October, but in terms of raw percentages, this has been their best statistical stretch of the season.
All metrics 5-on-5 only and courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, adjusting for score effects using their method.
Considering the respective circumstances, the recent stretch has been more impressive than the season-opening one. Not only are these games of far higher leverage than the October ones, but the Flyers also likely benefited from opponents’ unfamiliarity with Vigneault’s Philadelphia system at the start of the season. The league now has months of tape on Vigneault’s Flyers — yet teams still couldn’t stop them from producing their most dominant 5-on-5 stretch in 2019-20.
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How have they done it? The emergence of a viable fourth line has done wonders for the team’s depth, as has rediscovered chemistry between Travis Sanheim and Philippe Myers on the second defensive pair and a suddenly effective third pair of Robert Hägg and Justin Braun. Oh, and Sean Couturier, operating at full powers, hasn’t hurt, either.
More than anything, however, the Flyers have bought into Vigneault’s preferred tactics, and the increased comfort in his system is showing in the season’s second half, as many predicted. They still have flaws, of course; the 5-0 loss to the Devils came within this 10-game stretch, as did recent losses to the Islanders and Lightning. But the Flyers appear to be trending up as the playoffs approach.
2. Slow starts continue to haunt Flyers
One lingering problem for Philadelphia? Poor first periods.
The issue bit the Flyers twice last week — first against the Islanders, as they fell behind 3-0 before the first intermission, and then in Tampa, where they watched the powerhouse Lightning run all over them before springing to life midway through the second period.
Philadelphia’s first-period problem isn’t just a perception, nor a case of recency bias. The Flyers have been consistently outplayed and outscored in the first 20 minutes throughout the season — only to regularly find their footing over the final two-thirds of games. The discrepancy is staggering.
All metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, unadjusted for score effects.
In the first period, the Flyers play like the Devils and Anaheim Ducks. In the second and third, their statistical profile is in the vicinity of the Lightning. Perhaps that helps to explain why, against the Lightning on Saturday, they looked overmatched through 20 minutes and then skated with their fearsome foe for the final 40. It’s simply their modus operandi.
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There’s no clear explanation for the phenomenon. It’s not like the players want to keep digging first-period holes, and all of the smart-sounding theories that have been proposed — the dump-and-chase-centric style wears opponents down, it takes time for the Flyers to lock into Vigneault’s system during a game — are just that: theories. Whatever the reason — if one exists — the Flyers continue to make their lives more difficult by starting slowly, and it’s a weakness teams like the Lightning and the Islanders will exploit down the stretch if it persists.
3. Voracek finding the right balance
When Jakub Voracek received just 14:30 of ice time in the third game of the season against the Vancouver Canucks — including 2:34 in the third period — it understandably raised red flags. How long would it take Voracek, an established veteran and one of the Flyers’ longtime stars, to adapt to the new expectations from Vigneault?
About 20 games, according to Voracek. Now, the balance between creating offense and still adhering to Vigneault’s defensive standards is coming naturally, he said.
“I think it’s pretty visible on the ice,” Voracek said. “Sometimes, you try to figure out what the coach wants from you, how to be the best part of the team, (do) whatever the coach wants from you, do it the right way. Believe it or not, even after 12 years (in the NHL), you’re still trying sometimes to figure out that balance. I think I did.”
It’s visible in the numbers. Since mid-November, the Flyers have been a much better defensive team with Voracek on the ice at 5-on-5 — yet it hasn’t come with the veteran sacrificing offense. In fact, he’s scored at a higher rate even as his allowed scoring chances and goal prevention numbers have improved.
All metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey.
Voracek has always and will always be an offensively oriented winger; no one is going to confuse him for a dark-horse Selke contender. But prior to the 2016-17 season, Voracek’s underlying defensive metrics were strong — the Flyers suppressed shots and chances better with Voracek on the ice than when he sat on the bench. Over the last three seasons, however, that flipped. Voracek was still driving offense, but for the first time in his career, a case could be made that he was giving back those gains at the other end.
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That slide has been arrested in 2019-20. And it’s at least in part due to the impact of Vigneault and his staff’s ability to balance accountability while not sticking a talented player making an effort to adjust in the permanent doghouse. Voracek acknowledged that he wondered early in the season if the latter might be the new staff’s approach, but those fears disappeared.
“No matter who you are, no matter how many years you’ve played, in a particular game, if you don’t do your job right, you don’t get minutes,” he said about Vigneault’s approach. “Next game, it’s back (to) the old track. I had my ice time cut in Vancouver, third game of the year. I wasn’t sure what was going on. Next game, I was back at it. It gives you an idea of how every game is important, and no matter how it goes for you during the game, if you don’t play well, you don’t play.”
4. Hagg with surprise PP goal
With 56 seconds remaining in Thursday’s comfortable victory over the Panthers, the Flyers received a late power play courtesy of a questionable hit by Jonathan Huberdeau.
Did the usual top power-play unit hit the ice? The second unit? Nope.
“Hagger, Brauner, you guys are up. Show ’em how it’s done,” a smiling Hägg recounted, remembering the heads-up from his coach that the fourth line and third pair would get an opportunity to close out the game on the man advantage.
“You gotta just be ready,” Braun cracked on Friday from his locker next to Hägg’s at the TGH Ice Plex practice facility in Tampa.
In one of the more amusing surprises of the season, ready they were.
For Hägg, it was the first extended power-play opportunity since his first year with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms in 2014-15, when the organization was still trying to develop him as a two-way blueliner. And while the Flyers ultimately pivoted on their approach with Hägg, encouraging him to lean on the defensive side of his game, it doesn’t mean creating offense stopped being fun for him. At the very least, it gave Hägg, a lighthearted locker room presence, the ability to rag on his higher-scoring teammates.
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“Maybe I should be back in (the power play),” he said, laughing. “Jakey (Voracek) needs a heads-up there, I’m taking his spot on the half-wall.”
5. Hägg both lucky and good of late
Hägg may have been “lucky” to get his power-play opportunity; he doesn’t receive it if the outcome is still in doubt. But it’s impossible to argue that he provided anything but good work when given the fortunate look on the PP.
That combination of lucky and good sums up Hägg’s recent play at 5-on-5, too.
It’s not difficult to argue that Hägg has been the most fortunate NHL defenseman this season in 5-on-5 goal-based results. With Hägg on the ice, the Flyers have scored on 11.30 percent of their shots (sixth-highest among blueliners) and the team’s goalies have stopped 94.76 percent of opponents’ shots (fifth-highest). In general, most players’ combined on-ice shooting and save percentages add up to around 100 over an 82-game season — Hägg sits at 106.1, which not only leads the league among defensemen with at least 400 minutes at 5-on-5, but also would be the second-highest combined total for a blueliner over the past five seasons.
PDO, as the combined stat is dubbed, essentially has zero season-over-season repeatability — particularly at the extremes. Hägg is almost certainly benefiting from good fortune that won’t extend beyond 2019-20.
That said, the Flyers are starting to drive play with Hägg on the ice.
Hägg’s full-season grades by shot and chance differentials are still poor. But since the Detroit game on Feb. 3, Philadelphia has collected 55.27 percent of the shot attempts and 59.21 percent of the expected goals (per Natural Stat Trick’s model) with him on the ice. Six games is not a large sample, but even the most dedicated advanced stat acolyte would acknowledge that Hägg hasn’t been a liability in recent weeks.
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6. The Provorov power-play conundrum
Speaking of the grey area between good fortune and good play, we turn to the intriguing case of Ivan Provorov on the power play.
With his slapshot goal on Saturday, Provorov solidified his place as the Flyers’ top PP goal-scorer this season; he holds a two-goal lead over second-place Claude Giroux. For a terminally inconsistent power play, Provorov’s production hasn’t merely been welcome — it’s been essential to his unit’s success.
Yet in comparison to Shayne Gostisbehere and Sanheim, public metrics imply the power play fares worse from a shot and chance standpoint with Provorov on it.
All metrics at 5-on-4 and courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
The implications are fascinating. It’s not crazy to argue that Provorov isn’t the best fit on the top power play unit, based on underlying performance. But how can a team marginalize the player who has been the most individually successful in terms of actually scoring goals? And it’s not like his goals were especially fluky.
Just from a team dynamic standpoint, it would be very difficult to justify removing Provorov from the top unit — especially with Gostisbehere not available due to a knee issue. At least with Ghost, the argument could be made that PP1 used to have a spot set aside for him. Dropping Provorov for Sanheim, on the other hand — even if the move were driven by statistical evidence — is a much tougher sell.
Connor Bunnaman and Robert Hägg battle with Mitchell Stephens. (Kim Klement / USA Today)
7. Bunnaman establishing himself as viable NHL option
During his initial four-game stint with the Flyers to start the 2019-20 season, Connor Bunnaman looked every bit of a long-shot prospect who few expected to make the big club out of training camp. And when he scored just five points in 24 games with the Phantoms following his demotion, it was tough to imagine an NHL return in 2019-20.
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But since recovering from a high-ankle sprain that limited his AHL effectiveness, and after receiving a surprise second NHL shot in mid-January, the 21-year-old has been an entirely different player.
“At the start of the year, I was kind of getting my feet wet a little bit, being nervous before games,” Bunnaman acknowledged recently. “This time around, I’ve viewed it a little differently — that I’m here for a reason, and I know my linemates are going to back me up.”
Bunnaman isn’t lighting up the scoresheet — he has just two points in his 14 games back with the big club. But unlike his first go-round, his line isn’t getting crushed from a shot and chance standpoint when he plays. In fact, they’re the ones doing the crushing.
All metrics at 5-on-5 and courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
It’s possible Bunnaman doesn’t remain with the Flyers through the trade deadline; general manager Chuck Fletcher is actively trying to improve the team’s forward depth, and a rookie with two points in 18 games is an obvious candidate to be pushed down to the AHL to accommodate an added player. But Bunnaman no longer looks overmatched — even if his in-season trajectory has been a bit unorthodox.
“It’s been a wild, crazy, fun year,” he said. “My AHL point sheet in my time there wasn’t very good this year. But I’m glad they believe in me, to come back up and get a second chance this year, and I’m glad it’s working out.”
8. Vigneault critical of fourth line’s change vs. Tampa Bay
The Flyers’ new fourth line — Michael Raffl, Bunnaman and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel — has been a revelation over the past two weeks. They might have been Philadelphia’s best line in the two pivotal matchups with the Panthers. But this is still a line with two rookies — they’re not going to be immune to mistakes. And apparently, nor are they immune to a little public criticism from the head coach.
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None of Raffl, Bunnaman nor Aubé-Kubel earned minuses on Tampa Bay’s third goal, but Vigneault made it clear he pinned the breakdown on the trio and its poorly timed line change as the Lightning rushed back up ice.
“Terrible change on their third goal, where we’ve got two guys coming to the bench at the wrong time,” Vigneault said. Just seconds later, he brought up the breakdown unprompted again. Asked for clarification, Vigneault laid out his opinion succinctly.
“I’ll have to look at it again there, but it looked to me — if you’re going to dump the puck in and forecheck, you’ve got enough energy,” he said. “We lost the puck right away, it was one of those one-and-done (entries) where the other team is coming (right back down the ice). Either you change, or you stay on the ice and make sure you’re in the right position.”
When Bunnaman makes the decision to dump the puck into the Lightning’s end, his line has been on the ice for about 30 seconds. He and his linemates have two choices — use the dump-in as an opportunity to get off the ice, since their shift is likely nearing an end, or go into pursuit mode and try to turn it into a viable entry. Instead, they end up somewhere in the middle, staying on the ice but apparently too gassed to execute a worthwhile forecheck.
Vigneault’s point is valid — either have enough self-awareness to leave the ice, knowing you and your linemates are running on fumes, or stay out there and help your defensemen on the transition rush rather than bailing for a line change. It’s a mental error worthy of criticism, just as the line’s work the rest of the week was worthy of praise.
9. Frost returns to the minors
Morgan Frost’s second NHL stint in his first professional season proved to be short-lived.
After being called up on Feb. 7, Frost appeared in only two games — wins against Washington and Florida — before being relegated to the bench in favor of Joel Farabee and then officially returned to the AHL on Friday after practice.
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Does that mean Frost will spend the rest of the season with Lehigh Valley? Not so fast.
In the eyes of the organization, Frost wasn’t lighting it up with the Phantoms in the games leading up to his most recent recall. This wasn’t a case of a player “earning” a call-up and then disappointing. Frost had two points in five AHL games before the promotion, and was summoned for one big reason: The Flyers wanted to get Giroux back on the wing, and with Farabee still recovering from a recent illness, Frost was the best option to both slide into a scoring center role and take up a spot on the second power-play unit. When Farabee returned, Frost’s fit became less clear — especially when the coaches decided they were comfortable handing the 3C spot back to Scott Laughton.
But Frost held his own during his two-game stint, again making a strong case that he should be viewed as “NHL-caliber” even if he’s far from a finished product. There’s a reason the coaches like the idea of calling Frost up when an opening in the top nine appears — he’s arguably the only Phantoms forward capable of filling that role, and certainly the only center. Not to mention, Frost might be one of the 12 most effective currently available forwards in the organization. It makes sense that a coach whose primary focus is to “win now” would want Frost in the mix.
The front office, on the other hand, still views Frost as a player who would benefit from more time in the AHL. At the very least, they’d like to see him excel in the minors for a few consecutive weeks before giving him a long-term call-up with a “locked-in” spot. But few teams avoid injuries or roster/lineup machinations down the stretch. If the Flyers lose a scoring forward, Frost could come right back up. And if he rattles off an eight-points-in-eight-games stretch (he already has three points in his first two games back in the AHL), along with the kind of two-way play that impresses scouts, there’s no reason he can’t earn another recall — this time solely on his own merit.
10. Opportunity to deliver devastating blow to Columbus
The Blue Jackets won’t be out of the playoff chase if the Flyers find a way to defeat them in both sides of this week’s home-and-home series.
But they sure do look like a staggering team.
Columbus will enter Tuesday night’s game in Philadelphia on a five-game losing streak, which is tied for its longest skid of the season. But it’s not just the number of recent losses that stands out. While the streak began against top-tier opponents (no one will judge the Blue Jackets too harshly for falling to Colorado and Tampa Bay), the last three defeats have come against the Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers and Devils. Not exactly Murderers’ Row.
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Add in that the Blue Jackets are missing Seth Jones, Cam Atkinson, Josh Anderson and Alex Wennberg, and it’s clear this is a short-handed team that might be crashing back to earth. The Flyers couldn’t ask for a better time to face Columbus. It’s an opportunity they can’t afford to squander.
All statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Archives: O’Connor’s Observations and 10 Things
(Top photo: Andrew Bershaw / Getty Images)