Farm Futures: Rangers’ AAA rotation could be armed with a drastically different, unique look in 2020

Most big-league organizations would concede that building a winning rotation is the biggest developmental challenge in the sport. The combination of stuff, pitch variety, mental aptitude and deep-inning durability that the best starting pitchers have in common is rare enough before you even factor in health. Imagine if every NFL club needed to alternate between five starting quarterbacks.

There’s a reason frontline starters get traded every July. No team ever believes it has enough starting pitching.

Of all the ways teams have zeroed in on to build rotation strength, the most common are two. The first is developing pitchers through the farm system and staying patiently steadfast in that process. The other is bringing in proven starters from the outside, whether through free agency or trades. The first is far more cost-efficient and, if it works, long-lasting. The second is more reliable.

The best rotations typically blend the two strategies. The Rangers, perhaps more optimistically than ever before, have moved the ball forward on both fronts. The result is what could arguably be the deepest front five the Rangers have suited up in the Jon Daniels era — both in Arlington and in Nashville.

Analytically speaking, Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski opined that “a little bit of luck could leave the Rangers with one of the better rotations in the league.” Conventionally, the only pitcher in the penciled-in Texas rotation of Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles not to earn double-digit victories in 2019 was Kluber, who won at least 18 games in each of the three seasons leading up to it. There’s no Shelby Miller in the group with 11 wins in four years and a minor-league contract, nor is there a Brock Burke slotted into the No. 3 spot on the strength of three eye-opening starts in August.

There have been years when the Rangers rotation included pitchers in each category, and not just one, on the day they reported to camp.

Instead, should Lynn, Minor, Kluber, Gibson and Lyles break camp without setbacks — and really, only four of the five will be needed for the season’s first 14 days, with the lone exception being April 4 in Tampa — the AAA rotation could be uniquely staffed, as far as recent franchise history is concerned. Though things can and probably will change due to a number of factors, it’s conceivable that the Sounds could go with a starting five featuring Burke, Joe Palumbo, Kolby Allard, Jonathan Hernandez and Taylor Hearn.

Consider the starting pitchers the Rangers have given the ball to in the first five AAA games of each year over Daniels’ 14 seasons as GM (the numbers in parentheses indicate where that pitcher was ranked by Baseball America among his club’s top 30 prospects coming into that season):

It’s not necessarily atypical to have veteran journeymen and experienced fringe prospects manning AAA rotations. Teams all over the league do it in the interest of depth; there are times when it makes more sense to call on Drew Hutchison or Pedro Payano (or, in 2020, perhaps Arturo Reyes, Taylor Jungmann, Tim Dillard or Wes Benjamin) to temporarily join the 40-man roster for a few big-league spot starts than to rush a young pitcher whose long-term development would be better off continuing right where they are.

What is atypical — especially for Texas — is the Burke-Palumbo-Allard-Hernandez-Hearn group. It would be the youngest fivesome to start the AAA season for the Rangers since 2009, and not by a little. It would also be the first time over the same period that all five are members of the 40-man roster. And not in a Sampson-Ranaudo-Wandy sort of way: All five are on the roster, with arrows pointed up.

Burke, Palumbo, Allard, Hernandez and Hearn have each been on a team’s top-10 prospects list in the last two years — including Allard three straight seasons (No. 3 in 2016 and 2017; No. 7 in 2018) with the Braves before they sent him to Texas in July for reliever Chris Martin. Like Martin Perez in 2012 and Derek Holland in 2009, all five young pitchers are legitimate candidates to start games for Texas at some point soon. They each already did it in 2019.

Burke overcame blister and shoulder issues early in the year to make his pro debut in August. He was brilliant in his first three starts, posting a 1.50 ERA and limiting Angels, White Sox and Mariners hitters to a .203/.292/.250 slash line over six innings each before the Orioles and A’s (twice) solved the 23-year-old in his remaining three starts (19.73 ERA, 1.395 OPS). Burke’s shoulder discomfort cropped up again in December, resulting in a cortisone shot and a program of throwing progressions that he’s working through now. He starts camp slightly behind the others.

After debuting with two subpar spot starts and one very good relief appearance, Palumbo’s wholesale return to the big leagues in late August was interrupted by an ankle injury that followed a dominating four-start stretch with Nashville (four runs on six hits and six walks with 25 strikeouts in 17.2 innings). The result was that Texas kept the lefthander on a tight pitch limit as he finished his year with varying degrees of success: In four season-ending appearances with the Rangers, he allowed six runs in 7.2 innings but fanned 14 Angels, A’s and Yankees in the process.

Allard is the youngest of the five by more than a year but has twice as much major-league experience as any of them. Atlanta brought him to the big leagues in 2018, giving the then-20-year-old the ball three times (12.38 ERA, 1.253 OPS, three strikeouts in eight innings). He was markedly better in nine Rangers starts in 2019. After appearing just once for Nashville (five shutout innings) following the trade, he was summoned to Texas and promptly inserted in the rotation, permanently replacing Adrian Sampson. In nine starts, Allard posted an ERA+ of 105 (a score of 100 denotes a league-average starter), highlighted by one five-start stretch in which he posted a 2.96 ERA while holding the White Sox, Mariners, Orioles, Rays and Astros to a .701 OPS.

Hernandez earned Baseball America recognition as the Pitcher of the Year in all of Class High-A in 2018 but found AA to be the huge, challenging jump that it is for so many. Between June 2018 and July 2019, he had a 5.40 ERA through 28 Frisco starts (one was actually a five-inning relief appearance) before an eye-opening shift to the bullpen. In six RoughRiders relief appearances, four of which lasted more than once through the opposing lineup, the righthander held hitters to a .184/.273/.204 slash line in 15 innings, fanning 12. A callup to Texas followed, with similar usage and not terribly dissimilar results, at least in the hittability and swing-and-miss columns. Hernandez struck out 19 in 16.2 innings (though he walked 13), holding opponents to a .219/.346/.375 clip in his relief role (which included two opener assignments that he took into the third inning). For years, many have projected that Hernandez’s crossfire delivery would work best in a bullpen role, but Texas has hinted that he may get one last shot at starting games in Nashville this spring before a full-scale transition to relief is considered.

There have been similar debates over what role would best suit Hearn, though the organization has been committed to developing the 6’5 southpaw as a starter to this point. After a promising four-start stretch to open the 2019 season for Nashville (14 hits and 10 walks in 20 innings, with 26 strikeouts), Hearn was called on to make his big-league debut on April 25 in Seattle. It quickly turned from a lifelong dream fulfilled into a nightmare on every level. He walked the first three Mariners with a passed ball mixed in. An infield single, a flyout, a bases-clearing double, another walk and a single to reload the bases ended Hearn’s night — and his season. He came out of the short night with tightness and inflammation in his elbow and, though surgery was not required, he spent the rest of the year rehabbing his arm. He’s been cleared to go this spring, and while he seems to fit a starter’s profile more so than Hernandez, there could be a temptation to move Hearn into relief, where his stuff could conceivably play in short big-league bursts very soon.

Like Allard, Hearn (from the Pirates in the Keone Kela deal) and Burke (from the Rays in the three-team Jurickson Profar deal) came to Texas in trades. So did Jason Bahr (from the Giants for payroll relief) and A.J. Alexy (from the Dodgers in the Yu Darvish deal), two righthanders who could start the season where they finished last year — AA Frisco and High-A Down East, respectively — but with expectations to advance beyond that in 2020.

Obviously, no team wants to be in the position of seller, but since their last playoff appearance in 2016, the Rangers have been able to use the trade market to add to both the quantity and quality of their pitching prospects. The Rangers system doesn’t feature one of the top 20 pitching prospects in baseball, but it’s deeper in starters than it has been in years.

Below AAA, the Rangers have gone with six-man rotations in recent seasons and are expected to do so again this year. Given the number of young pitchers needing starts, it’s probably a good thing.

At Frisco, Bahr could be joined by big righthanders Kyle Cody and Tyler Phillips, each of whom is on the 40-man roster, as well as John King, Reid Anderson and Noah Bremer. Just behind them is Jake Latz, whose breakout season was cut short in June with an elbow issue. He could begin the year back at Down East along with Alexy, Hans Crouse, Yerry Rodriguez, Ronny Henriquez and Tim Brennan, forming a rotation full of pitchers whose names the Rangers probably get asked about in trade talks.

The Low-A Hickory rotation could have tremendous upside as well, with Cole Winn and Ricky Vanasco (whom I have as the No. 3 and No. 5 prospects in the Rangers system) fronting a group that might include 2019 college draftees Ryan Garcia, Cody Bradford and Justin Slaten, and possibly Seth Nordlin upon his return from 2018 Tommy John surgery.

Righthanders Mason Englert and Owen White had the same operation early in 2019 and are hoping for pro debuts around mid-season. They’re likely looking at assignments to the Short-Season A Northwest League or the Rookie-level Arizona League when those circuits open in June. Lefthander Cole Ragans, who had his second Tommy John last spring, will miss most if not all of the 2020 season.

Chances are that there will be adjustments made to the Lynn-Minor-Kluber-Gibson-Lyles and Burke-Palumbo-Allard-Hernandez-Hearn groups before Texas opens on March 26 in Seattle and Nashville hosts Iowa two weeks later. Hernandez or Hearn could earn a big-league bullpen role or even be assigned to the AAA bullpen, making room for someone like Dillard or Benjamin to take the ball every fifth day. The Rangers could opt to ease Gibson back into the mix slowly after he missed the second half due to ulcerative colitis (the same bowel disease that afflicted Jake Diekman) and spent the winter putting weight back on, and have Burke, Palumbo or Allard take that turn against the Rays on April 4. (Incidentally, the Pacific Coast League season opens unusually late this year on April 9, meaning whoever is called on to make the Texas start on the 4th could still be in line to pitch the Sounds’ opener five days later.) Someone else could end up dealing with some sort of physical setback.

Texas has depth to protect against the mound misfortunes that afflict every team every spring. But in terms of the projections, it’s a new time for the Rangers. They could have five legitimate rotation prospects, each with a taste of big-league experience and ready to roll — but all penciled in to face Iowa first, rather than the Mariners or Angels.

EXIT VELO

• Previous entries in the Farm Futures series:
  • Catchers
  • Infielders
  • Outfielders
• The Rangers recognized minor-league pitching coordinator Danny Clark as the organization’s 2019 Bobby Jones Player Development Man of the Year and special assistant Scott Littlefield as the 2019 Red Jacket Scout of the Year.
• Baseball America ranks the Texas farm system 21st overall, up from No. 27 at mid-season, noting that while the Rangers lack an “elite” prospect, the system is deep at the lower levels and “could climb significantly in 2020 as those young players mature.”
• FanGraphs calls RHP Yerry Rodriguez the No. 97 prospect in baseball, IF-OF Nick Solak No. 109 and OF Heriberto Hernandez No. 117 (“This guy rakes, and [his] TrackMan data … is among the best in the minors”).
• Major League Baseball has promoted former Rangers pitcher Chris Young to senior vice president, replacing Joe Torre, who is moving into a role as special assistant to the commissioner. In his new position, which will include handing down league suspensions, Young will oversee the on-field and umpiring departments. After retiring in 2017, the 40-year-old spent the last two years as MLB’s vice president of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy.

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