Redskins mock off-season Part I: Three paths of re-signings and releases

Mike Tyson at his fearsome best once famously declared of upcoming opponents, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

There’s a good life lesson in there about overcoming adversity and remaining focused. It’s also a worthy way to consider the upcoming transactional part of the NFL off-season. It’s not enough to consider plans in free agency and the draft for the Washington Redskins. Not all prove realistic when examining the salary cap and player pool. There’s also a need for counter moves with opponent’s haymakers lurking.

Washington began making its first significant roster moves under coach Ron Rivera and the promoted front office leader, Kyle Smith. Cornerback Josh Norman and wide receiver Paul Richardson were released for salary cap and performance reasons. Wednesday came the announcement of Washington exercising its team option with running back Adrian Peterson and another a step toward the end of tight end Jordan Reed’s era at Redskins Park.

More decisions remain. Who to cut or negotiate a contract extension whether it’s wise adhering to a strict rebuild coming off a 3-13 campaign or aiming for a quick turnaround.

Rather than state the decision-makers should do this or run from that, The Athletic’s Ben Standig and Mark Bullock plotted out potential scenarios. Up first, what Washington does with its roster and free agents.

Let us know in the comments section which path you prefer or choose your own adventure.

All salary cap and roster data come from the website Spotrac. Unlike contract experts like Rob Rogers, Washington’s new Eric Schaffer, we’re not adept at manipulating the cap year over year, so all these deals fit without (ideally) not causing future chaos. Therefore our contract thoughts are on broad terms.

Scenario one: Get the gang back together

Re-sign: Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, Ereck Flowers, Jon Bostic
Retain: Ryan Kerrigan, Quinton Dunbar
Release/let walk: Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson

Rivera repeatedly mentions he’s a fan of his inherited roster, particularly the youngsters. Perhaps the fondness expands beyond the past three draft classes.

Here, the Redskins retain several significant pieces. Doing so keeps the ideal version of the offensive line intact. Brandon Scherff receives the franchise tag and fellow free agent guard Ereck Flowers comes back on a relatively cheap deal. Rivera’s recent chat with Trent Williams convinces everyone 71 at left tackle works*.

(*Williams wanted a new contract last season since his remaining deal lacked guaranteed money and fell behind other top tackles. He’s currently at $12.5 million, but that lacks guaranteed money. The Redskins agree to bump that up to $15 million, which is the approximate average of the five highest-paid left tackles. That $15 million figure essentially mentions his $14.5 million cap hit for 2020, but here Washington significantly raises the guaranteed money to get Williams back in the building. Letting Williams play out the final year seems like the least interesting of all options, but perhaps a consideration if the franchise pushes for the best win-loss timeline possible.)

Running back Adrian Peterson’s extension is exercised to help provide cover for Derrius Guice and Bryce Love, both of whom have injury concerns. However, Chris Thompson is allowed to test the open market. The additional salary cap savings needed to pay for Dwayne Haskins’s blockers comes primarily with the release of tight end Jordan Reed. That’s expected anyway, sources tell The Athletic, and save $8.5 million toward the cap.

On the other side of the ball, Ryan Kerrigan stays despite his significant cap hit ($11.7 million) and current projections of Washington selecting Ohio State defensive end Chase Young second overall in April’s NFL Draft. Let’s not put a price on Kerrigan’s locker room leadership.

Uncertainty with Reuben Foster’s recovery from last year’s significant knee injury leaves a potential hole as Washington shifts to a 4-3 scheme. Free-agent linebacker Jon Bostic proved capable in the middle last season and at least offers depth with Cole Holcomb. Like Flowers, Bostic received a slight raise above his 2019 salary.

Cornerback Quinton Dunbar remains despite his recent trade request. Even if Rivera gives Dunbar assurances that he’s in their long-term plans, would the receiver-turned-corner coming off another season filled with injuries play out the final year of his deal after seeing Reuben Foster’s significant knee injury last year? For our purposes, we’ll say Dunbar bets on himself and stays with the current $3.25 million base salary.

Estimated cap room entering free agency: $38.75 million (not counting a Williams extension)

Remaining needs: Tight end, cornerback, wide receiver

These needs exist currently under any plan. Washington could justify adding a veteran tight end and drafting one in the third or fourth round. The corner market is poised for a wild off-season with league insiders expecting extensions (Jalen Ramsey, Marlon Humphrey) and some intriguing talents, including James Bradberry and Chris Harris hitting free agency. Washington needs a veteran free agent WR to go with its kids, but the draft offers a deeper group of candidates.

Analysis: This scenario allows the retention of several key, foundation-building pieces. Fewer holes remain, but the available salary-cap space dwindles, leaving Washington fewer avenues to fill holes and freshen up the roster.

The upside is keeping the offensive line together. When healthy, Scherff is one of the best guards in the NFL. He has plenty of familiarity playing between center Chase Roullier and right tackle Morgan Moses. Flowers went from busting as a tackle with the Giants to become the steadiest offensive lineman here last year. Probably league average in 2019, but he would receive an entire off-season focusing on guard, instead of flipping between two spots like last year. Williams puts the OL over the top, and rounding off a solid line is always the foundation of any offense. Cohesion is key, and while there’s a new OL coach (John Matsko) system to learn, Washington would enter the summer with a settled group for the first time in years. Let the cohesion begin.

Scenario two: New Era

Re-sign: Ereck Flowers, Chris Thompson
Trade: Trent Williams
Release/let walk: Jordan Reed, Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Scherff, Jon Bostic

New coaching staff entering a new season after a 3-13 debacle means rejiggering the roster.

This path has Rivera deciding to let the majority of the free agents find new homes while focusing on a few key pieces to retain.

Creating a ginormous cap space doesn’t mean excessive spending. If deemed a rebuild, then dropping big bucks at guard isn’t ideal. Slapping the franchise tag on Scherff means approximately $16 million in 2020, while a long-term deal could run 4 for $49.87 million per Spotrac projections. The new coaches have no ties to Scherff, and could further justify moving on by noting multiple multi-week injuries in recent seasons.

Flowers keeps a starter position without major money while Wes Martin, Scherff’s injury replacement last season, gets penciled in as the replacement for now.

Reed goes again, but this time Kerrigan and Peterson join him. Kerrigan goes down as an all-time Redskin, but $11.7 million cap hit is too much for a rebuilding team. Keeping Peterson means three clear options with Derrius Guice and Bryce Love, but here we keep Chris Thompson to provide Haskins with a strong pass-catching threat out of the backfield.

Now, the big decision: Trading Trent Williams. His on-field contributions would greatly benefit Haskins’ development. Still, we’re also looking at a 30-something tackle who wants a contract extension and hasn’t played more than 14 games since 2015 because of injuries. The Redskins opt for a trade with a second-round pick a realistic goal. That would replace the pick lost in last year’s trade for Montez Sweat.

Estimated cap room entering free agency: $74.9 million

Remaining needs: Left tackle, tight end, cornerback, wide receiver, right guard, linebacker depth

Analysis: Tackle overtakes tight end and the rest as the top need. Even with a rebuilding approach, Washington would be wise investing in a blindside protector for Haskins. That second-round pick in the Williams trade provides another avenue should free agency prove too expensive. Regardless, no Williams or Scherff means a new era. Same with Kerrigan on defense. Change is rarely easy but sometimes required.

Keeping Thompson* isn’t an easy call now, but Guice and Love are coming off injuries and Peterson turns 35 in March. Ideally, the fourth RB is some young, cost-effective player who can help on special teams. Here we lean toward the schematics. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner had versatile backs in Carolina that threatened defenses as receivers and runners. Thompson is no Christian McCaffrey, but like the Panthers’ All-Pro he can line up all over the formation to create mismatches up issues.

(*Thompson receives $3 million annually here, which is a slight bump in base salary, but below his 2019 total which included a $3 million signing bonus over three years.)

The Redskins maximize their potential cap room and provide pathways for aggressive actions and the targeting of multiple needs in free agency. Good, because now numerous holes exist. It’s the new guy in Rivera who gets to shop for those replacements.

Scenario three: The hybrid edition

Retain: Trent Williams
Re-sign: Brandon Scherff
Release/let walk: Jordan Reed, Ryan Kerrigan, Chris Thompson, Jon Bostic, Ereck Flowers.

Those other two scenarios were more black and white. As often the case in football and life, the reality often lies in the gray.

This choice offers a combination of angles. They generate some significant cap space by releasing both Reed and Kerrigan, as in scenario two. Still, both Scherff and Williams remain the foundation of the offensive line going forward. Moving on from Kerrigan, a decision that probably requires ownership approval considering the pass rushers’ status within the organization does not create a hole assuming the draft selection of Young.

Mid-tier guys like Bostic and Flowers aren’t retained as Rivera and his staff looks to replace them with comparable — and perhaps familiar — players or draft picks. Linebackers Cole Holcomb and Shaun Dion Hamilton might receive a longer look for the middle of the defense. Same for Martin at left guard.

Estimated cap space entering free agency: $54.4 million (not counting a Williams extension)

Remaining needs: Tight end, cornerback, wide receiver, guard, linebacker depth.

Analysis: The best of both worlds approach allows the Redskins to keep their best two offensive linemen while using Kerrigan and Reed to create extra cap room. Concerns exist with Williams’s age and injury history, but he’s now avoided football wear-and-tear since 2018. Offensive linemen tend to last longer than most other positions. NFL starters Joe Staley (35) and Andrew Whitworth (38) remain productive left tackles despite the accrued mileage.

The benefits of keeping Williams and Scherff on the offensive line shouldn’t be overlooked. Their athleticism allows them to make blocks few can pull off. They give Turner and his offensive staff substantial flexibility. Pull to the edge on tosses and sweeps. Lead the way on screens. Maul defenders in gap scheme runs. Every offensive coach in the league would like to work with those two. This path gives Washington that opportunity while creating room to maneuver elsewhere with the roster.

Up next: Washington attacks free agency and the draft

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