While I’ve never grossly overpaid for My Guys, every year I do have several players I would love to own across the board. You likely have the same, and if you want to spend the extra $1-2 bucks or pounce a round or two early, go for it. I do it; we all do. Honestly, if we’re right about the ceiling for our guys, the cost will still be less than the return. You just have to remember that you don’t want to buy all of the risk. Don’t become so enamored with a player that you spend so much and force the player to hit his ceiling just to even out the cost. With all of that in mind, let’s dive into 10 My Guys for the 2020 fantasy baseball season, including more Padres.
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First Base
Renato Nunez, BAL — First Base is rather top-heavy with plenty of concerns starting as early as fifth, Paul Goldschmidt. The tier of Goldy to Matt Olson boasts plenty of power, but each carries a slight concern. The concerns become greater in the next group with Yuli Gurriel (cheating-related career year), Rhys Hoskins (average killer), etc. Often, you will see the third and fourth tier (Carlos Santana to Daniel Murphy) come with inflated costs, so I’ve avoided most everyone from Gurriel to Murphy and rostered C.J. Cron and Nunez the most. With Nunez, what’s the main difference between him and teammate Trey Mancini? Really, it’s 20-30 batting average points and maybe a handful of runs. However, you get to save on Nunez both in numerous rounds of a snake and often around $10 in an auction… and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Nunez match Mancini’s output this year given his similar Average Exit Velocity (89.9, 90.3) and Hard% (40.6, 42.7), plus better marks in Average HR Distance (413, 404) and Barrels per PA (7.2, 7.1).
Second Base
Rougned Odor, TEX — Speaking of those Statcast metrics, Odor had 89.4, 45.6, 404 and 8.1. Those Hard% and BPA numbers are better than Mancini and Nunez, and Odor finished 14th for 2B last year, sixth for AL… while hitting .205. I don’t expect Odor to get back to .271, as he did in 2016, but he did sandwich his August slump with .264 in July and .261 in September. Yes, Odor also hit .145 and .172 in the first two months, but he started the year with a hamstring injury, likely contributing to some of his struggles. It’s a testament to how valuable Odor is that he can finish that high despite an awful average. If people are hyping Joey Gallo early inside the Top 50, why are they so against putting Odor inside the Top 150?! You get double-digit steals, 30+ home runs and the pure upside that a modest improvement in hit frequency gives him a bump in Runs.
Third Base
Scott Kingery, PHI — Kingery is the definition of a post-hype sleeper, who also happened to be wildly overrated to start. It’s a deadly combo that can destroy a player’s perceived value. In truth, Kingery should have never been seen as more than a 20/20 (maybe reaching 25) guy, but his 2017 Double-A torrid stint had people drooling (.313 and 18/19 in 69 games). Kingery was hot, and he was in a good environment, so when he debuted in 2018 and disappointed greatly, it was the lack of production and overblown expectations that caused everyone to stop caring last year, and it’s depressing his cost still this year, even after .258/64/19/55/15. Sure, that line won’t blow your doors off, but Kingery’s first half showed his upside, while the second showed the risk. Overall though, Kingery still did all of that in 126 games (458 ABs), and he has the potential to post a 75/25/75/20 line over 150 games. That line with a .250 average would have Kingery easily inside the Top 100, and it comes at a thin third base with eligibility in the outfield too, and ADP cost of 155 (NFBC since February 1).
Shortstop
Dansby Swanson, ATL — Speaking of splits, Swanson hit .204 with 19/0/8/3 in the second half (38 games, 142 ABs) of 2019. Well… there is a reason for that nauseating line… Swanson was injured at the all-star break. In the first half and before his injury, Swanson had .270/58/17/57/7 in 87 games (341 ABs). It’s dangerous to extrapolate, but Swanson wasn’t hitting above his ability or on a ridiculous hot streak like Rhys Hoskins’ stretch-run two years back or Kingery’s Double-A numbers. So, for kicks and giggles, taking Swanson’s numbers across 550 ABs gives us 94/27/92/11. Really, that’s all you need to know, but we’ll be reasonable and say 80/20/75/10. I’d still take that every day at an ADP of 243.
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Catcher
Danny Jansen, TOR — Another post-hype sleeper, Jansen was a C1 pick last year with the expectation that the job was fully his, and that Jansen could hit .250-ish with 20-HR potential. Jansen will turn just 25 in April and has just 138 MLB games in his two seasons. The risk is that Jansen has competition this year in fellow youngster Reese McGuire. However, McGuire doesn’t have the offensive upside of Jansen, so if Jansen can seize the lead in the spring, pushing McGuire to around 40-50 fill-in games, Jansen can be a great second catcher (ugh, bleh, pfft – two-catcher leagues) with a season of .240/50/15-20/50.
Outfield
Franmil Reyes, CLE; Kyle Tucker, HOU — I already took Reyes as my sleeper, and I’ll give you a quick reason why: his projected line from my rankings where he’s OF27 (.259/78/35/93/1), and that’s with 518 ABs. There is upside for even more. With Tucker, playing time is a concern, especially since Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are lefties too. There are at least 20 teams where Tucker would be the opening day starter with a full-time gig, but these are the Astros. The good news is that there is plenty of injury risk in the Astros lineup, and Tucker is a legitimate 30/30 threat. There is a chance that he steals a bit less in the bigs (30 steals in 125 Triple-A games last year), but the power is a near lock with the corresponding playing time. If Tucker finds his way into 150 games/550 ABs, he should hit around .250-.260 with 90/25/90/20 as his likely… FLOOR. Sign me up as a mid-late flier.
Starting Pitcher
Dinelson Lamet, SD; Matthew Boyd, DET — As with Reyes, Lamet has a previous mention, as he was my bold prediction. So, let’s focus on Boyd. He was a popular sleeper, particularly by our Al Melchior, last year, and he somewhat broke out with 238 strikeouts in 185.1 innings. Unfortunately, it came with a 4.56 ERA and so-so 1.23 WHIP. Boyd was plagued by the long ball, but he is approaching the 2020 season with that in mind. Boyd is refining his pitch selection and placement, focusing on not letting his changeup be as destructive (to him/allowing long balls).
From Nick Pollack of Pitcher List, who interviewed Boyd in Tampa:
“Boyd emphasized the importance of his changeup that can be a valuable weapon to bring down his inflated home run in rate in 2019. He also detailed how his velocity should continue to stick above 92 mph for another season, if not continue to climb.”
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Boyd broke out last year, but it appears his ceiling could still be higher.
Relief Pitcher
Brandon Workman, BOS — We spent a good chunk of 2019 trying to figure out who would be the Red Sox closer, and Workman entered the mix in May with Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes. Workman didn’t really take over until late in the year, but he was excellent down the stretch with a 2.84 ERA in August (12 games, 12.2 IP) and 0.00 ERA in September (12/11.0) with 20 and 18 strikeouts, respectively. Seeing that, you would assume Workman is a top-end closer pick, pushing for the Top 5. However, the issue with Workman is his walks. He also had 13 walks across those two months (23.2 IP) and a 15.7 BB% for the season. Workman “dropped” his BB% to 13.7% in the second half from 17.3% in the first, and you can see his struggle in a 58.4 F-Strike% and 37.5 Zone%. The good news is that he induces a good amount of ground balls, and if he can decrease his walk rate even in a slight amount, Workman could reach the Top 10 of closers. For more good news, he doesn’t cost that much with an ADP of 161, the 16-17th closer off the board, which is lower than he should finish even with zero improvement… as long as he doesn’t lose the job.
Photo: Jamie Squire / Getty Images
