Coaches Corner: The Predators’ offense under John Hynes versus Peter Laviolette

Two days before the NHL paused its season amid the coronavirus pandemic last week, the Predators defeated the Montreal Canadiens in John Hynes’ 28th game as coach.

Although the league is hopeful the season will resume, it is impossible to know when — or if — that will happen. The indefinite hiatus, though, provides a good opportunity to evaluate the Predators’ performance under Hynes and compare it to their first 41 games of the season, when Peter Laviolette was still in charge. (He was fired Jan. 6.)

This analysis will be separated into three parts: offense, defense and special teams. The first focuses on offense.

The most obvious difference between the Laviolette-led Predators and the Hynes-helmed Predators is the number of even strength goals scored per 60 minutes. Eleven of the Predators’ 19 wins under Laviolette were by at least three goals, and their 3.44 total goals per game at the time of his firing were sixth in the league.

Hynes also wants his players to have a shoot-first mentality, but they have been less successful in that regard, in terms of attempts and the number of shots that reach the net. The Predators’ 49 five-on-five goals in 28 games since Jan. 7 are tied for 22nd. (Overall, they are scoring 2.54 goals per game under Hynes, 25th in the league.)

On his first day as coach, Hynes explained his offensive vision as one that prioritized controlling the middle of the ice.

“We want to make sure in the offensive zone that we have players that get inside the dots, around the net-front and the high-slot area, where it's dangerous to be able to play,” he said. “When you can win the middle of the ice, a lot of times your percentages go up to score.”

So far, the Predators have struggled to do that, ranking among the worst teams in the league at getting to the slot during Hynes’ first two months. This season, 83.9 percent of even strength goals scored by forwards have come from the slot, which underlines the importance of that area of the ice and helps explain the Predators' drop-off in scoring.

There was also an expectation that Hynes’ system would lead to more offense off the rush, but that has not been the case. The Predators have averaged one fewer odd-man scoring chance per 60 minutes at even strength since the coaching change.

One area in which the Predators have shown improvement under Hynes is the amount of time they spend in the offensive zone, though, as previously noted, they have not taken advantage of it. (To put that in perspective, the St. Louis Blues have averaged a league-high 6 minutes, 52 seconds of offensive-zone time per 60 minutes since Hynes became the Predators’ coach.)

Before the league paused play last week, Hynes emphasized the need for sustained pressure in the attacking zone.

“One of the big things we’d like to have is more offensive-zone time and be able to get situations where you can extend it,” he said. “You’ve got to get to the inside of the ice, and the later the season gets, it’s harder to get to the inside of the ice because everybody is battling and defending harder. I think the intensity level the last 20 games of the season is different than the first 20, for sure, and probably the first 40.

“It’s offensive-zone time. It’s managing the puck. I think you do have to have a shot mentality, but you have to have a shot mentality with traffic in and around there, and you have to do a really good job of hunting and getting seconds, recapturing the puck after that shot and then maintaining the (offensive-zone) time. I think we’ve shown spurts of that, but that's another area of our game that we’d like to continue to grow.”

In nearly every category, the Predators’ even strength offense has suffered with Hynes behind the bench. The question they need to answer is whether that is more a reflection of his tactics or the personnel at his disposal.

— Data via Sportlogiq.

(Photo of John Hynes: John Russell / Getty Images)