It’s been eight years since Oregon has had a legitimate quarterback competition. That’s about to change.
The addition of Anthony Brown, a graduate transfer from Boston College, will shake up the Ducks’ quarterback room, already in flux following Justin Herbert’s departure for the NFL after 3½ seasons as the team’s unchallenged starter.
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But unlike other graduate transfer situations of the recent past, Brown is not a sure-fire starter. This isn’t a situation like in 2015, when Vernon Adams Jr. was brought in from Eastern Washington to basically save the season. Brown has obvious holes in his game and a troubling injury history. Plus, front-runner Tyler Shough, a four-star recruit in 2017, has shown plenty of signs that he can play at the major college level, and play well.
So what gives?
Sources both inside and close to the program say the job still very much remains Shough’s to lose. Ducks coach Mario Cristobal has given every indication that he believes Shough could be special, and has done so since as far back as the spring of 2018, his first on the job.
Brown’s addition should not be viewed as an indictment of Shough’s future. Instead, it’s a chance for Oregon to bring in a veteran quarterback with 28 starts, 4,738 passing yards and 40 touchdown passes under his belt to both push Shough to get better and provide a grown man — someone who has been there/done that at the major college level — in case Shough isn’t quite ready to take the reins.
Nobody should balk at that. It’s a sound move. But teams don’t typically seek out graduate transfers unless there is an obvious hole in the lineup. And graduate transfers don’t typically select landing spots to become backups.
One thing is for certain: An already-intriguing offseason for the Ducks’ offense following the loss of five players who were invited to the NFL Scouting Combine just became even more interesting.
Competition breeds excellence
What we don’t know, at least not yet, is whether Brown had other viable suitors offering a strong chance for him to start this fall. If he did but still chose Oregon — as Dakota Prukop did in 2016, when he picked the Ducks over Alabama after leaving Montana State — that would mean Brown likely has been told that he could win the job because Shough isn’t ready. It’s also possible that, given his injury history (he has suffered torn ACLs in both knees), Brown received no serious offers to start, so he chose a place where he at least knew the job was open. This would mean that Brown and Shough will duke it out on the field and may the best man win. And losing the job wouldn’t be a death knell for Shough’s career.
Whatever the situation, competition is a good thing. Most of Oregon’s best quarterbacks over the past 25 years were born through tough competition.
In 1987, freshman Bill Musgrave beat out sophomore Pete Nelson, who the previous season had backed up Chris Miller, a first-round NFL draft pick. Musgrave went on to have a fabulous career at Oregon under coach Rich Brooks.
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In 1998, Akili Smith transferred to Oregon from Grossmont College and had to compete with Jordan Maas. The two split time in 1997 before Smith pulled away and became a superstar in 1998 under coach Mike Bellotti. Smith went No. 3 overall to Cincinnati in the 1999 NFL Draft.
Vying to replace Smith in 1999 were sophomore Joey Harrington and junior A.J. Feeley. They waged a fierce competition that included splitting time the first year before Harrington eventually won the job and played his way into the first round of the 2002 NFL Draft.
Jason Fife backed up Harrington in 2001 and had a strong season in 2002 after fighting off the competition brought forth by highly recruited freshman Kellen Clemens. The following year, Clemens won the job and went on to become a three-year starter and a second-round pick in 2006.
Dennis Dixon backed up Clemens for two seasons but couldn’t hold on to the starting job in 2006, losing it to Brady Leaf as the two went back and forth for much of the season. That competition helped Dixon blossom as a senior in 2007, when if not for a late-season knee injury he likely would have won the Heisman and led the Ducks to the BCS title game.
In 2008, Oregon had sophomore Justin Roper and redshirt freshman Nate Costa in place, but sought help from junior college transfer Jeremiah Masoli. He ended up leading the Ducks to a Holiday Bowl victory in his first season, then helped UO win the Pac-10 title and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl in 2009 under coach Chip Kelly.
Injuries cost Costa a chance to start in 2010 after Masoli was booted from the team, and the Ducks had to turn to Darron Thomas. He benefited from the competition with Costa and ended up passing for a then-school-record 66 touchdown passes in 2010 and ’11, leading the team to the greatest two-year run in program history to that point.
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Thomas’ backup in 2011 was redshirt freshman Bryan Bennett, who appeared to be the heir apparent to Thomas. But Marcus Mariota, who redshirted in 2011, had been demonstrating in closed practices that he was going to be special. He won the starting job over Bennett in 2012 in a competition that lasted until the final week of preseason camp and went on to become the greatest player in program history.
That leads us to 2015, when Oregon faced the prospect of turning over the offense to redshirt junior Jeff Lockie or redshirt freshman Morgan Mahalak to replace Mariota. Coach Mark Helfrich, knowing that the Ducks needed help at the position, brought in Adams to “compete” for the starting job. We say “compete” because it wasn’t truly a competition. All Adams had to do was show up and be himself and the job was his, and that’s exactly how it played out.
The following year, even with redshirt freshman Travis Jonsen, who had been a touted recruit, the coaches again brought in a transfer to “compete” and that was Prukop. He won the job and held on to it before faltering, opening the door for Herbert to take over after five games.
That leads us to now.
What history has shown us is that competition is good, especially at quarterback, and when transfers are sought, it’s usually for a clear reason.
Of course, that history lesson spans 22 years and five head coaches. It would be unfair to assume that Cristobal’s thought process is exactly like everyone else’s.
Would it make sense to bring in Brown if the Ducks felt like they had a lock superstar starter already? Remember, this isn’t only about Shough. The Ducks signed two quarterbacks in the 2020 class, Robby Ashford and Jay Butterfield. Cale Millen was signed in 2019 and redshirted. That’s four scholarship quarterbacks, yet here the Ducks are adding a graduate transfer.
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What does Brown bring to Oregon?
Experience, first and foremost. Other than that, it’s tough to say what he adds, given that we still don’t know much about Shough. He could be flat-out better than Brown, meaning the new guy is just an insurance policy.
After reviewing video of Brown, including his complete game against Wake Forrest last season, several things are clear.
1. Brown isn’t a burner as a runner: He runs well but won’t remind people of Mariota in that regard. Nor is he especially elusive, as Masoli was. Brown as a runner would better be compared to Herbert, who flashed his running skills late last season, or Thomas (the 2010 version). Brown rushed for a modest net of 423 yards in three seasons, with gross gains of 606 yards.
Brown’s mobility was mostly used on rollouts. BC runs mostly a pro-style attack, though there was some spread. Brown spent a lot of time under center, something he might never do at Oregon, and did a lot of rollouts and bootlegs.
A coach who has faced Brown said he doesn’t excel as a pure pocket passer but is strong in the play-action game and on the move. The coach added that he believed Brown’s abilities would fit well with new coordinator Joe Moorhead’s offensive philosophies.
2. Throwing on the run is a strength: Being on the move and looking downfield to find a target suits Brown well. He doesn’t force many passes, and instead uses his feet to buy time until he finds an open receiver.
During a second quarter play against Wake Forest, Brown received instant pressure up the middle, stepped up to evade the rusher, only to bump into his running back, who after moving forward tried to retreat to help Brown with the initial threat. Brown bounced off the running back, received pressure elsewhere, avoided that, got out of the pocket, ran to the right, then threw a strike to the right sideline for a gain of 15.
Brown had an even more impressive play against Virginia Tech. BC faced a third-and-10 from its 30. Brown, in shotgun, had all five eligible receivers go into the pattern, with senior wide receiver Kobay White, wide to the right, running a deep post.
Virginia Tech rushed three, and the eight in coverage did a good job. Brown couldn’t find anyone open and eventually the three-man rush began to collapse the pocket.
Brown escaped to the right and saw White streaking downfield while being closely trailed by a defensive back. Throwing on the run, Brown launched a deep pass from BC’s 25 that hit White in stride down the middle.
The ball traveled close to 60 yards in the air and hit its moving target on the mark after being launched while on the run for a gain of 56 yards to the Hokies’ 14.
Brown’s ability to escape pressure and make plays on the move is a known quantity that the Ducks can bank on next season; Shough has not displayed such abilities in game situations.
3. Overall accuracy can be an issue: Despite playing in a pro-style offense that involves tons of play action and short passes to running backs and tight ends, Brown’s career completion percentage is unimpressive. He’s completed 54.9 percent in his career but did reach 59.1 percent last season. In his final two games, including a contest against Louisville that he left in the second quarter with a knee injury, Brown was 27-of-36 (75 percent).
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Still, his career completion percentage does not measure up to those of Oregon’s best quarterbacks of the past 18 years: Herbert (64 percent for his career), Adams (64.9), Mariota (66.8), Thomas (61.3), Dixon (63.9) and Clemens (61.0) were more accurate. Only Masoli (56.4) and Harrington (55.2) are in Brown’s range. But both did peak in their final seasons as starters.
Completion percentage can be fickle and isn’t always on the quarterback. Clearly, he can make great throws, as illustrated above. Where he really excels is passing over the middle. Boston College ran a lot of play-action passes with tight ends running down the middle of the field. Brown routinely got his feet set quickly and delivered strong, confident strikes to open receivers over the middle.
Brown also does well under pressure. One of his best plays last season came in the second quarter against Wake Forrest. In shotgun on a third-and-goal from the 5, the snap came early and surprised Brown. He managed to get a handle on the ball, made a quick drop and with a blitzing linebacker in his face threw a strike to a receiver running a slant from the left side of the formation. The linebacker hit Brown hard in the chest, and the receiver ended up dropping the sure touchdown pass.
Turnovers have been an issue at times. Brown has 20 career interceptions in 680 career attempts (one every 34 passes). In comparison, Herbert threw 23 in 1,293 attempts (one in 56.2), Mariota threw 14 in 1,167 attempts (one in 83.4) and Thomas threw 17 in 733 attempts (one in 43).
That said, as with completion percentage, Brown improved greatly in that area last season, when he threw just two interceptions in 137 attempts (one in 65.5).
4. Injuries a concern: Brown has had some bad luck with injuries. As a redshirt freshman, he tore the ACL in his right knee during the team’s 10th game of the season. He played in all 12 games in 2018, then suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in the sixth game of the 2019 season. That injury came while he was running up the middle and cutting. Nobody touched him on the play.
Two major knee injuries in three seasons certainly puts Oregon in a situation where it can’t bank on Brown remaining healthy for all of 2020. It’s imperative that should Brown beat out Shough, it’s close and the latter is ready to produce if needed.
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The ideal situation for all
By all accounts, Shough has the goods and looks the part in practice. He has the arm. He can move. He’s even got swag and confidence that should serve him well as a leader.
We’ve seen glimpses of Shough here and there. He looked solid in mop-up duty against Nevada, when he went 8-of-9 for 92 yards and two touchdowns. But mostly what we saw from Shough were a series of short passes, including on this slant below to wide receiver Mycah Pittman, which he converted into a late touchdown in a blowout of USC.
Shough finished last season with a 226.6 passer rating, but it came with a low degree of difficulty.
A challenge for Shough will be to learn Moorhead’s offense in one offseason, especially with spring football cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic. There’s no telling when the Ducks will be able to return to the field or hold in-person position meetings. Right now, the team holds meetings via video-chat services.
Brown will have even less time to learn the offense, given that he has missed all of Oregon’s offseason to this point. But he has three years of game experience to fall back on. It’s more than likely that most of what Moorhead would want Brown to execute he already has done, to some extent, during his career.
The same can’t be said for Shough. How should Shough feel about this? Not great. But not distraught, either.
If a quarterback can’t handle some competitive heat, he probably isn’t suited to be a starter in the first place. That doesn’t sound like the Shough people have described.
Even if Shough doesn’t win the job, all wouldn’t be lost. He still would have two years of eligibility remaining beyond the 2020 season. Sitting again would give him more time to learn the offense as the backup and enter the 2021 season with a full 20 months in Moorhead’s system (assuming the coach is back in 2021).
But let’s say Shough fends off Brown. That would provide no better indication that not only is Shough ready to start, he’s ready to thrive.
No matter how it plays out, Oregon got better this week at the most important position.
(Top photo: Omar Rawlings / Getty Images)