Amid the busy maneuvering of the 49ers’ offseason, perhaps the most significant question regarding their 2020 chances has remained constant: How will Jimmy Garoppolo, guided by 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, progress?
Garoppolo was good in 2019, but even tasty meals can be tainted by a rotten final bite. The 49ers’ loss in Super Bowl LIV has thrust a more demanding spotlight on the quarterback.
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Legendary former 49ers quarterback Steve Young is familiar with this harsh dynamic. He was the NFL MVP in 1992 and a first-team All-Pro that year and in 1993, but the 49ers lost NFC title games to the Cowboys to finish both seasons.
A pair of fun rides ended on bitter notes.
“When you get there and you don’t get it done, that’s — you don’t get it done, so you eat that,” Young said of Garoppolo in a phone interview last week. “And that has to be something that drives you forward.”
Young responded by winning both NFL and Super Bowl MVP honors at age 33 to close the 1994 season. The 49ers finally bested Dallas in the NFC title game and then San Diego in the Super Bowl to capture their fifth championship.
Young’s onerous climb to the mountaintop underscores the importance of big-picture perspective when evaluating the maturation of a quarterback like the 28-year-old Garoppolo, who has attempted 837 career passes — roughly the same amount Young had thrown entering his first season as the 49ers’ starter in 1991.
In 1992, before Young entered his second full season as the 49ers’ starting quarterback — the juncture Garoppolo is at right now — he listened to an impactful message from then-offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, Kyle’s father.
“I remember (Kyle’s) dad said to me: ‘Steve, I’m going to be as aggressive as I possibly can, and I want you to protect me,'” Young said. “That, I think, is the statement Jimmy needs to look for, to get from Kyle: ‘Jimmy, I’m going to be as aggressive as I possibly can. I want you to protect me.'”
Will 2020 see Garoppolo and Shanahan reach a new level of cohesion and efficiency? The 49ers’ past can help us handicap Garoppolo’s future. The franchise’s rich history of quarterbacks allows us to apply a statistical perspective while strolling down memory lane.
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We can recognize Jeff Garcia’s superb 2000 season, which rose from the ashes of the 49ers’ dynasty. We can quantify the 2012 boost Colin Kaepernick provided after he replaced Alex Smith. We can illustrate the ebbs and flows of 49ers’ quarterback play over the years, doing our best to tie it all together to Young and Joe Montana — the two franchise standard bearers at the position.
All of this can give us the most complete picture of Garoppolo’s standing and trajectory.
A treasure trove of advanced quarterback numbers going back to 2006, compiled by Ben Baldwin, recently became available. By combining data from this stockpile with metrics from Pro Football Reference and Football Outsiders, we can begin with a broad illustration of 49ers’ quarterback play throughout the recently concluded decade.
A decade of 49ers’ QB play
QB | ANY/A | CPOE | EPA | SR | DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.6 | -3.0% | 0.01 | 42% | -12.2% | |
6.0 | -9.1% | -0.01 | 38% | -20.0% | |
6.1 | -0.5% | 0.05 | 43% | 3.3% | |
6.8 | 5.1% | 0.16 | 51% | 19.8% | |
7.6 | 4.2% | 0.23 | 47% | 25.8% | |
6.7 | -1.1% | 0.14 | 46% | 16.6% | |
5.6 | -1.5% | 0.07 | 44% | -8.4% | |
5.7 | -1.9% | -0.02 | 40% | -15.6% | |
5.0 | -5.1% | 0.02 | 41% | -21.5% | |
4.1 | -7.6% | -0.05 | 41% | -25.4% | |
5.9 | -5.3% | 0.06 | 44% | -17.5% | |
4.7 | -5.1% | -0.04 | 37% | -16.7% | |
4.5 | -9.2% | -0.08 | 37% | -23.1% | |
7.6 | 7.1% | 0.35 | 54% | 35.6% | |
5.0 | -7.6% | 0.00 | 44% | -24.3% | |
6.7 | -1.0% | 0.18 | 50% | 4.2% | |
7.2 | 2.7% | 0.25 | 51% | 10.8% |
Darker green signifies a performance further above average, while darker red means it’s further below average. An asterisk denotes that only a partial season was played. A minimum of 150 throws was required to qualify, thereby excluding Garoppolo’s three-start 2018 stint.
ANY/A stands for “adjusted net yards per attempt.” This is a more sophisticated version of yards per attempt since it also factors in touchdown passes, interceptions and sacks. The formula is: (passing yards — sack yards + (20 x passing TDs) – (45 x INTs)) / (passing attempts + sacks). NFL quarterbacks averaged about 6.2 ANY/A in 2019.
CPOE stands for “completion percentage over expectation,” a stat created by FiveThirtyEight’s Josh Hermsmeyer and included in Baldwin’s stockpile. CPOE simply tracks a quarterback’s average depth of target to determine an expected completion percentage before determining if that QB was more or less accurate than that rate.
EPA stands for “expected points added” per passing drop back, also from Baldwin’s collection. While ANY/A doesn’t account for the context of interceptions, EPA does. It also measures efficiency relative to the first-down marker (a 5-yard pass on third-and-4 is a positive play, even if it lowers a QB’s yards per attempt). The league median EPA for quarterbacks generally falls around +0.11.
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SR stands for “success rate,” the percentage of plays on which a quarterback records a positive EPA. This metric gauges QB consistency. The NFL median for success rate is generally around 46 to 47 percent.
DVOA is “defense-adjusted value over average,” Football Outsiders’ own measure of yardage that matters, explained here. Since it’s based on annual averages, DVOA is naturally era-adjusted. DVOA also accounts for a quarterback’s downfield running ability.
Some observations from the table above:
- The amount of asterisks is remarkable. Throughout the last decade, the 49ers saw their starting quarterbacks deliver only four full seasons — and that futility actually stretched back to 2004, the first year post-Garcia. This lack of stability at QB is obviously related to large swaths of red on the table. Given that context, Garoppolo’s 2017 was a significant turnaround.
- Perhaps it isn’t surprising that the best performances came over stints that didn’t last a full season. Garoppolo’s stellar 2017 numbers (he ranked either No. 1 or 2 in all metrics listed above) came over a five-game stretch. The 2012 peaks for Kaepernick and Smith came over seven and nine starts, respectively.
- The 2012 Smith-Kaepernick comparison provides an interesting case study. While Smith was more accurate (CPOE) and consistent (SR), Kaepernick posted better efficiency numbers across the board (ANY/A, EPA and DVOA). That’s a testament to Kaepernick’s explosiveness, both on the ground and through the air.
- Nick Mullens is much better than C.J. Beathard, who posted some of the team’s worst numbers of the decade (by DVOA, only Blaine Gabbert’s 2016 was worse). The fact that Mullens’ below-average CPOE paired with above-average finishes in other categories suggests Shanahan’s system optimized his efficiency in 2018.
- The best full season from any 49ers QB since the Garcia era is either Kaepernick’s 2013 or Garoppolo’s 2019. Kaepernick holds a DVOA edge over Garoppolo despite trailing in all other categories. Kaepernick likely made up ground with his scrambling abilities — he ran for 524 yards in 2013 while Garoppolo managed only 62 rushing yards in 2019. Among full-time QBs, Garoppolo ranked in the NFL’s top-10 across all listed stats.
To add more perspective to the best performances above, let’s zoom out further.
Unfortunately, EPA and CPOE databases don’t extend back before 2006, but we can use ANY/A and DVOA (which is tracked back to 1985) to make comparisons to the 49ers’ glory days. We can also highlight interception and touchdown rates for further context since the former has been identified as an area in which Garoppolo must improve.
Above the bold delineating line, the best full seasons of Montana, Young and Garcia are compared to the best seasons of Garoppolo, Kaepernick and Smith. Top partial seasons, including appearances from Mullens and Steve Bono (who started six games for the 49ers in 1991), are asterisked and listed below the bolded line.
Select 49ers QBs since 1985
QB | ANY/A | DVOA | INT rate | TD rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
8.3 | 39.0% | 2.1% | 6.7% | |
8.2 | 38.8% | 2.2% | 7.6% | |
7.3 | 31.8% | 1.8% | 5.5% | |
6.1 | 3.3% | 1.1% | 3.8% | |
6.7 | 16.6% | 1.9% | 5.0% | |
7.2 | 10.8% | 2.7% | 5.7% | |
9.1 | 48.3% | 3.3% | 8.7% | |
6.3 | 24.2% | 1.7% | 4.6% | |
6.8 | 19.8% | 2.3% | 6.0% | |
7.6 | 25.8% | 1.4% | 4.6% | |
7.6 | 35.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | |
6.4 | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
Some observations from above:
- Though 1989 Montana holds slight ANY/A and DVOA advantages, 1994 Young’s larger edge in TD rate may give him the leg up for the best season in franchise history. Also, consider that Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes led the NFL at 8.4 ANY/A in 2019. Both Montana and Young approached such efficiency during an era that was much less hospitable to offensive play.
- Garcia’s 2000 DVOA ranked No. 3 in the NFL. His DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement, also from Football Outsiders) trailed only Peyton Manning’s. Garcia also rushed for 414 yards that season, thereby solidifying a DVOA no 49ers QB has attained over a full season since.
- Garoppolo’s interception rate of 2.7 percent isn’t good. Smith’s 2011 rate of 1.1 percent is the lowest listed above, but he played in a notably conservative offense. A look at the best full seasons of Montana, Young and Garcia suggests that interceptions need not be eradicated to optimize efficiency. Perhaps Garoppolo can knock his rate down into the low-2 percent range simply by eliminating misfires to underneath linebackers.
- Among partial seasons, Young’s 1989 fill-in duty for Montana is unmatched — though he started only three games. Even though Garoppolo was excellent throughout those five 2017 games, his TD rate languished. Garoppolo and the 49ers significantly improved their red zone efficiency in 2019.
- Garoppolo is now tasked with re-approaching his other 2017 splits. Remarkably, he logged that 35.6 percent DVOA despite rushing for only 11 yards — 2017 simply saw an ultra-efficient aerial assault, possibly aided by a nothing-to-lose approach against relatively unsuspecting defenses late in the season.
The 2020 key, then, circles back to the advice Young shared above. For the 49ers to maximize their potential, Shanahan and Garoppolo must find a way to make all the pieces click as they did in 2017 — but under greater pressure and brighter lights.
“Kyle has to innovate this year because everyone is studying him,” Young said. “So he’s gotta innovate, or they’ll catch up. And so in that way, if you have a quarterback that will help you, allow you to innovate — that’s certainly helpful.”
Auxiliary variables will come into play — particularly the quality of pass protection, which wasn’t good in front of Garoppolo in 2019 (the 49ers ranked No. 26 in ESPN’s pass-block win rate). A cleaner sheet upfront combined with a better job from the receiving corps — Garoppolo lost the second-most EPA from drops in 2019 — can help set the table.
But the heaviest onus is on Shanahan and Garoppolo, who’ll be counted to take that next stride in lockstep.
A new accuracy metric
CPOE shouldn’t be confused with CPAE, which stands for “completion percentage above expectation.” CPAE, introduced by NFL Next Gen Stats in 2016, is an accuracy metric that uses modern tracking data to consider air distance, target separation, sideline separation, pass rush separation, passer running speed and time to throw. The stat’s formula is further explained here.
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While CPOE is a good start, CPAE is a much more encompassing measure of quarterback accuracy. Its biggest limitation is that it’s only existed four years, so we can’t rewind to the Montana, Young, Garcia or even Kaepernick prime years.
We can, however, examine how Garoppolo and his NFL contemporaries have scored on the CPAE scale over the past four seasons, over which some trends have begun to emerge.
Select NFL quarterbacks: CPAE since 2016
QB | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DNQ | 1.5% | DNQ | 1.7% | |
2.7% | 0.5% | -1.2% | -3.1% | |
4.6% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | |
8.4% | -0.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | |
-5.4% | -3.0% | 0.6% | -3.6% | |
DNP | DNP | -5.3% | 0.8% | |
DNP | DNQ | 1.2% | -0.6% | |
7.3% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | |
3.5% | -2.2% | -1.1% | -1.7% | |
7.4% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% | |
DNP | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | |
5.0% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% |
A minimum of 128 pass attempts was required to qualify for the database, so Garoppolo’s 2016 (two starts with New England) and 2018 (three starts with the 49ers) didn’t make the cut.
Some observations:
- It’s too bad that Garoppolo was hurt before he could qualify in 2016. That would’ve allowed for an apples-to-apples CPAE comparison with former Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who was just a hair better than Garoppolo that season by ANY/A and DVOA. Instead, our Garoppolo-Brady comparison came with them playing for different teams. Brady’s accuracy has declined over the past four seasons.
- Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is also past his best years. Rodgers posted an otherworldly 9.4 ANY/A back in 2011, when he was 28. But Rodgers has only been better than 7.0 ANY/A once since 2014, and his CPAE has now been negative for three straight seasons.
- Not surprisingly, the NFL’s most consistently accurate quarterbacks since the advent of CPAE have been New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Seattle’s Russell Wilson. Dallas’ Dak Prescott and Houston’s Deshaun Watson have also repeatedly finished in the CPAE green. Can Garoppolo accomplish that, too?
- Big fluctuations in the CPAE of Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, the Rams’ Jared Goff and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan underscore the impossibility of isolating QB performance from surrounding factors. Notice that Cousins and Ryan both saw huge CPAE drops from 2016 to 2017, when they lost offensive coordinators Sean McVay and Shanahan, respectively (Cousins, who was in Washington at the time, also suffered a severe worsening of pass protection). Goff, meanwhile, enjoyed a two-year upward CPAE spike after McVay became his coach in 2017.
Quarterback, play-caller and accuracy are tightly correlated, possibly through the confidence that comes from working in harmony with a bright offensive mind.
Perhaps that’s a statistical representation of why Young immediately mentioned Mike Shanahan’s 1992 message when discussing the next step for Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan.
“I remember thinking to myself that I loved it,” Young said. “It was really important to hear. I never had a coach say that to me, and I never thought it through like that. Hearing that from him changed the way I thought about myself, and it changed the way that I played. Recognizing that he was going to let it rip, that I was gonna manage through that.
“And in that way, it was the best way to be. Let the play-caller let it rip. Let the quarterback manage the issues, rather than the other way around. Because if the play-caller is trying to manage the issues, I don’t think it’s nearly as efficient and explosive.”
The 49ers offense was already efficient and explosive in 2019, of course. Garoppolo delivered a plus-statistical profile. The 49ers even registered the NFL’s No. 1 explosive pass rate (gains of 20-plus yards), per Sharp Football Stats.
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But there’s clearly another gear that can be reached here, especially since Garoppolo is further removed from his 2018 ACL tear. His 2017 surge suggests that. So does Garoppolo’s 2019 DVOA, which was good but not great. And so does the disappointing finish to Super Bowl LIV.
Young says that the path forward will be a race. Garoppolo and Shanahan must reach that next gear faster than NFL competition raises the bar to counteract and outdo them.
“The 49ers this past year, by midseason you knew they were gonna be great, but the league never truly laser-focused on the 49ers until late, so this next season is gonna be the first time they’ve been the team,” Young said. “This whole offseason, all this shelter in place, you know what coaches have been doing? They’ve been studying the 49ers. And they’ve been studying the Ravens, and now the Chiefs stand there as well …
“In that way, they’re gonna deconstruct, they’re gonna learn from, they’re gonna copy exactly what Sean McVay’s team and the Rams did in ’18 when they ran the table. It got studied, the whole league started doing the fast setup, the quick motions — every little innovation that Sean brought forward became ubiquitous around the league.”
So Shanahan and Garoppolo must avoid the rut that derailed McVay, Goff and the Rams in 2019.
“Go back to the Saints game and watch all of Kyle’s plays,” Young said. “They’re phenomenal design. Well, everyone in the league is gonna run ’em now. So now what’s the next thing? You’re gonna have to defend that turf and you’re gonna have to defend that turf being everyone’s homecoming game.”
The spotlight is on Shanahan’s innovation. A full-throttled season from Garoppolo will be necessary to translate those cutting-edge Xs and Os to successful plays on the field.
“In their rush to innovate, Jimmy must take the next step,” Young said. “That’s what can take him from good to great.”
(Photo: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
