During the 2010s, the Edmonton Oilers drafted heavily from the OHL in the first round. Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard represent the cream of Ontario junior teenagers for the decade just ended.
We could see Edmonton draft from the OHL again in 2020. I wrote about the quality of this year’s crop in March, and with the Oilers needing skill while drafting outside the top 10 (we don’t know the final draft order at this time), some creativity will be required.
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That brings us to a young prospect named Jan Mysak. He played 26 games in the Czech league, then came to Canada and played in 22 OHL games.
The games in the OHL ignited Mysak’s draft stock. In a heartbeat, Mysak seemingly went from hidden gem to a candidate to go in the first round.
The problem? He played just 22 OHL games. His numbers are interesting, the scouting reports are impressive. But did NHL scouts get a good look at this player? How much risk is involved? Could Mysak be exceptional value when the Oilers pick, available only because of a small sample size for NHL scouts?
Let’s have a look.
The player
Mysak was born June 24, 2002, and in draft terms that means he has more development time before maturation than most of the players who will be chosen in the 2020 Draft. Scouts talk about his intelligence and creativity. He scored 15 goals in 22 OHL games — that’s an impressive total.
Prior to arriving in the OHL, his track record was inconsistent and the scouting community had some questions (Corey Pronman’s take at midseason for The Athletic is an interesting overview of what might have been a state of the industry view before the OHL games). Bob McKenzie ranked him just outside the top 50 in his midseason assessment for TSN.
Since arriving in the OHL, Mysak’s skating has received excellent grades and his on-ice vision and passing are also singled out for attention. Add those things to his impressive goal scoring run and we’re looking at a meaningful resume.
The issue? Sample size. If you’re an NHL scout, how many times did you see Mysak? Are you willing to go all-in and recommend him as a first-round option?
The numbers
Let’s start in the Czech league, where very few teenagers played in 2019-20. Mysak hung around for half the season and performed well compared to other under 20s in the Czech League.
Mysak is one of just two forwards age 17 who played over 15 games while posting enough offence to hit a fairly low scoring bar. He led the teenage Czech leaguers in points per game and in goals. This is a very small look into the player but you’ll often hear things like “he didn’t do a lot in Europe” in scouting reports. Mysak, like his fellow teenagers, didn’t accomplish much because the opportunity given was very small.
The OHL numbers are interesting in two different ways. Let’s start with first-time draft eligibles and points per game:
Mysak may be chosen before some of these names due to speed and range of skills, but even if he’s the No. 8 forward chosen from the OHL that should land him in the early portion of 2020’s second round. Now, let’s have a look at goals per game:
- Jack Quinn .839
- Quinton Byfield .711
- Marco Rossi .696
- Jacob Perreault .684
- Jan Mysak .682
This is encouraging, especially when we consider Mysak is significantly younger than many of the names ahead of him. Finally, let’s look at when Mysak is delivering offence:
- Even strength: 22 games, 8-6-14 (0.64 points per game)
- Power play: 22 games, 4-4-8 (0.36)
- Penalty kill: 22 games, 3-0-3 (0.14)
The fact he scored so much in all three game states tells us he possesses a range of skills. The speed and anticipation we mentioned at the beginning are also useful with the man advantage, and (most interesting) when Mysak’s team is a man down.
Mysak’s other skills
Mysak is listed on the OHL website at 6-foot, 180 pounds and that’s a little undersized for today’s NHL. His 67 shots on goal (about three per game) isn’t an overly impressive total and he posted just a 46.5 success rate in the faceoff circle for the Hamilton Bulldogs.
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I think his offensive surge in the OHL may have fans believing Mysak is a scoring forward. The fact that almost half of his goals came on special teams (including three shorthanded goals) tells us there is some range to this player.
Mysak’s resume suggests a two-way forward with intelligence and vision. He can make excellent passes and be productive on the power play.
Sample size
If you’re an Oilers fan, chances are you’re familiar and then some with draft-eligible prospects. Mysak’s resume rings true to me, he appears to be a substantial prospect with real potential in all areas. That doesn’t mean he’ll be a 30-goal scorer or become Patrice Bergeron as a 200-foot centre.
It does mean that the range of his skills means he is going to have a chance to succeed in more than one area. Scott Wheeler’s midseason rankings for The Athletic gave us some clues about what this player does well. Scouting reports from his OHL time are glowing.
Math is intrigued with this player. In 22 games, he scored 15 goals and was a threat in every game state. If he had 66 games to play, could he have scored 45? We’ll never know.
He led OHL rookies in shorthanded goals, despite playing just a third of the schedule.
What does it all mean?
I’m not a scout and this player may not have been observed enough by all 31 NHL teams in order for them to project him as anything more than a possible second-rounder.
There are numbers that make Mysak fascinating. In his final 10 OHL games, he scored seven goals and added six assists. Did he spike? Or were those 10 games real progress?
Would an NHL team be foolish for taking him early? Is there enough of a sample to be certain? How much of his performance in the Czech league suggest the OHL spike was predictable?
Ordinarily, scouts would have been able to see him for a far longer period than has been available to them this spring.
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OHL forwards who are sure to go before Edmonton selects in the first round include Byfield, Rossi, Perfetti and Quinn. Foerster, Perreault and Chromiak would appear to be ahead of Mysak, but his scouting report and statistics (in a small sample) are compelling.
I don’t believe the Oilers will select Mysak at No. 21 overall. I believe he may warrant the selection.
(Photo: CTK via AP Images)
