State of the Devils: Future at center is bright, but more growing pains to come?

The 2019-20 NHL season is currently on hiatus because of the coronavirus pandemic, and when or if the season will resume remains unclear. While we wait for either a compressed completion of this season, or the official start of the offseason, The Athletic takes a deep dive into the state of the Devils. In the series, we will examine where each position stands and how the club needs to progress in the near and long term to become a Stanley Cup contender again.

Part I: Centers

Part II: Goalies

Part III: Wings

Part IV: Defensemen

The Devils have selected a center within the top 12 picks of the NHL Draft four times in the past five years. The Flyers are the only other team that has spent that much first-round draft capital on centers in that span, and three of their four were selected fourteenth or later.

New Jersey should be set up to own the middle of the ice for years to come, but it hasn’t happened yet. As of the 2019-20 season, one of the team’s four center picks has more than 250 NHL games on his resume, but his long-term role isn’t clear. One has played in 33 NHL games and has yet to collect his first career goal.

Two of the four were selected with the No. 1 pick and are the twin pillars of the Devils’ rebuilding plan moving forward. Whether Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes can evolve into an elite one-two punch at center will play a significant role in determining the Devils’ future. How much Pavel Zacha and Michael McLeod contribute could provide the final word on two controversial selections to date.

Travis Zajac has been a stalwart on the penalty kill and in the faceoff circle for more than a decade, and for the third straight season he was the Devils’ de facto No. 2 center. He had his worst offensive season since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign and has one more year left on his contract.

Beyond the four recent first-rounders, the Devils don’t have a lot of depth down the middle. It should be a position of strength in the 2020s, with the potential of rolling out four homegrown options.

First, let’s take a look at the 2019-20 group as a whole, with the help of traditional and advanced statistics:

Traditional stats

Player	Games	Goals	Points	SOG	TOI/G
Nico Hischier	58	14	36	123	18:04
Travis Zajac	69	9	25	72	17:06
Jack Hughes	61	7	21	123	15:52
Pavel Zacha	65	8	32	97	16:16
Kevin Rooney	49	4	9	59	11:44
Michael McLeod	12	0	2	11	10:14

That Hischier and Hughes have the same number of shots on goal suggests Hughes dealt with some bad luck in his rookie season. Zacha set a career-high in points, but still needs to shoot more whether he plays at center or on the wing.

Advanced stats (5-on-5)

Player	CF%	SCF%	GF%	xGF%	PDO
Nico Hischier	47.83	45.62	46.38	49.95	0.992
Travis Zajac	46.91	43.55	40	46.86	0.967
Jack Hughes	45.79	46.87	34	47.27	0.971
Pavel Zacha	42.95	40.64	40	42.44	0.985
Kevin Rooney	43.22	44.35	56.52	44.43	1.028
Michael McLeod	40.63	43.14	75	46.61	1.076

CF% = corsi for percentage; SCF% = scoring chances for percentage; GF% = goals for percentage; xGF% = expected goals for percentage; PDO = on-ice shooting% + on-ice save%

There’s not a lot of good in here, though some of it is tied to the team’s performance at even strength. Zacha’s possession numbers are concerning, particularly since he often played as the fourth-line center or middle-six wing. A player’s PDO should be close to 1.000, with significant deviations in either direction as a sign of good or bad fortune. Another bad marker for Hughes: The difference between his expected goals percentage and actual goals percentage is one of the largest for an everyday player in the league.

Two of the best all-inclusive statistics are Game Score Value Added (GSVA) from The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn and Goals Above Replacement (GAR) from Evolving-Hockey. Here’s how the current Devils centers performed in those areas over the past three seasons:

GSVA

Player	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20
Nico Hischier	2.23	1.99	0.99
Travis Zajac	0.5	1.12	-0.11
Jack Hughes	NA	NA	-0.27
Pavel Zacha	0.07	-0.02	-0.36
Kevin Rooney	NA	0.09	-0.07
Michael McLeod	NA	-0.35	0.08

Goals Above Replacement

Player	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20
Nico Hischier	15.8	15.6	4.8
Travis Zajac	3.4	7.4	0.5
Jack Hughes	NA	NA	-3
Pavel Zacha	-1	2.3	3.4
Kevin Rooney	NA	3.9	1.4
Michael McLeod	NA	-2.6	2.2

Hischier was inside the top 30 in NHL GAR as a rookie, and the top 40 in his second year. His improvement in the faceoff circle in his third season was not enough to offset a dropoff in other areas.

For Zacha, the GAR model favored his season much more than the GSVA model did. He finished just outside the top 200 in forwards (T-204th) in GAR, which averages out to about the seventh-best forward on an average team. Each model favored Rooney’s value more last season and indicate McLeod made improvements in limited duty in his second year.

Nico Hischier

Player	ES TOI/G	PP TOI/G	PK TOI/G	Penalty +/-	FO%
Nico Hischier	14:27 (2nd among Fs)	2:41 (5th)	0:55 (6th)	22/6 (+16)	51.73

Age: 21 (Jan. 4, 1999)

Contract: $7.25 million through 2026-27

Most frequent linemates: Kyle Palmieri (524:22), Jesper Bratt (281:04), Taylor Hall (208:46)

2019-20: Hischier established his two-way value during his first two seasons, but he has not taken a leap forward in Year 3. Some of that can be attributed to the team’s poor performance, but not all of it. The Devils still had more than 52 percent of the high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 with Hischier on the ice, but the offensive numbers were down across the board (shot attempts per 60 minutes, scoring chances per 60 minutes, etc.). Even his HDCF% was down, from the mid-50s through his first two years.

Hischier did miss 11 games because of injuries and could potentially lose 13 more because of the shutdown. That’s almost 30 percent of a full season. Let’s assume Hischier gets back on track next season. What would it take for him to move into the elite class of centers in the NHL in the next couple of years?

Let’s evaluate Hischier’s seasons in the context of those of the top centers in the league, including what Years 4 and 5 looked like for them:

* Pettersson has only played two seasons; ^This was the lockout shortened 2012-13 season

There are some impressive names below Hischier on the list. Crosby’s concussions affected his fourth and fifth seasons, with 30.4 GAR in 63 games. Not everyone was a superstar by their fourth season — centers like Eichel, Bergeron and O’Reilly took longer to blossom into elite players.

The future: Hischier’s seven-year, $50.75 million contract begins next season. If he plays like he did the first two seasons, the contract is good value. If he can find another level, he’ll be a no-doubt No. 1 center in the NHL and the Devils will get a bargain.

Of all the players Hischier spent at least 100 minutes on the ice with at even strength, his best possession numbers came with Bratt (51.48 CF%, 55.24 shots for percentage). Hischier played 52:27 with Nikita Gusev and 49:43 with Jesper Boqvist this season. The Devils are going to need Hischier to lead one of the top two lines, and it would make sense to put Gusev or Boqvist next to him to try to get them top-six minutes while playing with a defensively responsible center.

Travis Zajac

Player	ES TOI/G	PP TOI/G	PK TOI/G	Penalty +/-	FO%
Travis Zajac	13:40 (5th)	0:35 (12th)	2:51 (1st)	5/14 (-9)	52.84

Age: 34 (May 13, 1985)

Contract: $5.75 million through 2020-21

Most frequent linemates: Blake Coleman (637:33), Nikita Gusev (471:25), Miles Wood (196:00)

2019-20: Zajac centered the best line on the team for a large chunk of the season, but he didn’t collect the goals and points to show for it. Coleman and Gusev both flourished playing next to him, while his possession numbers plummeted without them.

The future: Zajac will record his 1,000th game as soon as the Devils have nine more regular-season games scheduled. Zajac will be 35 next season and in the final year of his contract. It will likely be another year of expecting him to take on a reduced role at even strength, but the Devils are still going to lean on Zajac for tough matchups, defensive zone faceoffs and the PK.

There have been only 58 centers who played 1,000-plus minutes at age 35 since 2009-10. Zajac is at 1,180 this season and has logged 1,128 or more in each of the past seven years. If he continues to play well on the PK and doesn’t get overrun at even strength next year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him sign another contract with the Devils, even if the expectation is to serve as a fourth-line center and take on a leadership role similar to Brian Boyle’s when he was in New Jersey.

Coleman is gone and the Devils might try to find Gusev a home next to Hischier or Hughes next season, so Zajac could be looking at new linemates. Could Boqvist and/or Joey Anderson take a Coleman-like leap with Zajac’s help?

Jack Hughes 

Player	ES TOI/G	PP TOI/G	PK TOI/G	Penalty +/-	FO%
Jack Hughes	12:40 (6th)	3:11 (2nd)	0:01 (12th)	16/5 (+11)	36.15

Age: 18 (May 14, 2001)

Contract: Entry-level deal through 2021-22

Most frequent linemates: Kyle Palmieri (305:46), Wayne Simmonds (246:36), Pavel Zacha (147:45)

2019-20: Of all the potential outcomes for Hughes’ rookie season, seven goals and 21 points were far from the consensus expectations. So what went wrong? We’ve hinted at the bad luck. There are also his on-ice stats with Damon Severson: When Severson and Hughes were on the ice together (for 250 minutes), the Devils shot 2.52 percent as a team and the goaltenders stopped 88.5 percent of the shots.

His underlying numbers were not all bad. Among the 38 rookies who played at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5, his scoring chances for per 60 minutes (SCF/60), expected goals for/ 60 (xGF/60) and high-danger chances for/60 (HDCF/60) were all in the top 15. The numbers at the other end of the ice were low, currently second-worst among those 38 rookies in a couple of key percentage-based stats (ahead of only Kaapo Kaako, who had the worst CF%, SCF%, GF% and xGF% among all rookies).

The future: One of the keys for Hughes will be how much he can progress off the ice, sculpting his body so he’s more equipped for the rigors of the NHL. Maybe this extended period without games will be a bonus for him, even with the quarantine restrictions, because his home workouts will include two other elite athletes (his brothers) and someone who has helped develop NHL players for years (his father).

His possession numbers were strong with Palmieri, and stronger with Taylor Hall before he was traded. The experiment with Hughes on the wing alongside Hischier and Palmieri did not really work. If the Devils do add a forward in a trade or free agency, finding a finisher to play with Hughes would make sense. Nolan Foote might be a long-term option, and there might be one available in the first round of the 2020 draft, but a short-term option (think Simmonds, but with a better track record of scoring recently) could help Hughes develop until that day comes.

Here are other centers who went in the top 10 of the draft and failed to reach 30 points as teenaged rookies in the past 30 years:

Player	Draft	GP	Goals	PTS	Career GP	Career PTS
Petr Nedved	1990, 2nd	61	10	16	982	717
Joe Thornton	1997, 1st	55	3	7	1636	1509
Vinny Lecavalier	1998, 1st	82	13	28	1212	949
Kyle Turris	2007, 3rd	63	8	20	726	416
Tyler Seguin	2010, 2nd	74	11	22	741	635
Ryan Johansen	2010, 4th	67	9	21	660	442
Sean Couturier	2011, 8th	77	13	27	647	402
Mika Zibanejad	2011, 6th	51	7	21	548	384
Aleksander Barkov	2013, 2nd	54	8	24	479	407

Pavel Zacha 

Player	ES TOI/G	PP TOI/G	PK TOI/G	Penalty +/-	FO%
Pavel Zacha	12:36 (7th)	1:38 (8th)	2:02 (4th)	14/7 (+7)	43.27

Age: 23 (April 6, 1997)

Contract: $2.25 million through 2021-22

Most frequent linemates: Wayne Simmonds (284:30), Jesper Bratt (259:55), Miles Wood (196:15)

2019-20: For all of the consternation about Zacha’s development, his points per game have increased in each of his four NHL seasons, albeit slightly (from 0.34 to 0.36 to 0.41 to 0.49). After Zacha finished last season with a career-high 13 goals, the inconsistent play returned at the beginning of 2019-20.

Then he had a three-point game against Nashville, and racked up 14 of them in the final 20 games before the shutdown. He spent part of that time as the team’s No. 2 center — a role he struggled with in previous years — and was productive in between Bratt and Gusev.

The future: Zacha was on pace for double-digit goals and about 40 points before the hiatus. His possession numbers need to improve and he needs to rediscover his 2018-19 form in the faceoff circle (anything below 45 percent starts to become a problem, even if faceoff percentage is generally overrated).

Zajac has only one more left on his deal and isn’t a lock to be back for 2021-22. Zacha could fit next to Zajac and add more offense to help make up for losing Coleman. Zajac will need to produce for more than 20 games at a time for everyone to believe he’s made real progress. Still, having a 10-goal, 40-point forward who kills penalties makes that $2.25 million seem worth it.

Kevin Rooney 

Player	ES TOI/G	PP TOI/G	PK TOI/G	Penalty +/-	FO%
Kevin Rooney	9:36 (18th)	0:02 (17th)	2:06 (3rd)	12/5 (+7)	47.04

Age: 26 (May 21, 1993)

Contract: UFA this summer

Most frequent linemates: John Hayden (268:30), Miles Wood (167:51), Joey Anderson (98:36)

2019-20: Rooney had a quirky start to the season, where neither team did much of anything when he was on the ice. That changed eventually, and the Devils outscored the opposition 13-10 when Rooney was on the ice at 5-on-5. That’s notable considering how poor the team’s overall goal differential was, but it was also fueled by an unsustainable on-ice save percentage (.959). It’s hard to imagine any player having enough impact defensively to make even great goaltenders stop 96 percent of the shots, let alone what the Devils went through in net this season. Rooney also had seven points in one 10-game spurt, but just two points in the other 39 games.

The future: Rooney, who will be 27 next season, is a free agent whenever the offseason begins. His work on the PK is his calling card. It’s unclear if the Devils are interested in bringing him back next season, especially with Michael McLeod as the potential front-runner to be the team’s fourth-line center. If another team isn’t willing to give Rooney a one-way contract, a two-way deal with the Devils could make sense. There might be playing time for him in New Jersey, especially with Coleman gone from the top PK unit and the lack of NHL-ready centers in the Devils’ pipeline.

Michael McLeod  

Age: 22 (Feb. 3, 1998)

Contract: Entry-level deal through 2020-21

Most frequent linemates: Kevin Rooney (65:03), John Hayden (61:27), Jesper Boqvist (37:21)

2019:20: McLeod’s second extended audition with the club was often explained with one line: “He played better this time.” He had just 12 games and would have likely gotten to 25 without the hiatus.

The underlying numbers don’t say as much. The individual stats are almost identical on a per-60 minutes basis. He averaged one more shot and two more scoring chances per 60 minutes, but also one fewer high-danger chance per 60. The on-ice possession numbers? His CF% was worse, the SCF% was almost identical and the xG% was a little better.

As we saw above, both his GSVA and GAR numbers were better. Well, the team shot nearly 11 percent when he was on the ice at 5-on-5 and the goalies stopped 96.7 percent of the shots. The Devils outscored the opposition 6-2 despite those teams getting nearly 60 percent of the shot attempts.

The future: The 2020-21 season will be critical for McLeod. It’s his chance for the Devils to see how he can perform over 60-80 games in the NHL and for him to lock down a full-time role. The fourth-line center job could be his if he has a strong training camp and the Devils don’t add a veteran center in the offseason — and as long as they don’t decide to put Zacha there.

Looking forward