Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s Oilers future uncertain as ‘sexy’ options emerge

The math is starting to work against Adam Larsson as an Edmonton Oilers defenceman. On the day he was acquired in June 2016, general manager Peter Chiarelli conceded Larsson wasn’t “sexy” but stated: “He moves the puck, defends well. He can log a lot of minutes and match up against all the top forwards.”

Four years later, sexy is closing in from all corners, and Larsson’s expiring contract may place him in some roster peril.

He entered the season as the top-pairing option on Edmonton’s right side and lost ground during the year. As we enter summer, the pipeline is producing strong options and general manager Ken Holland is shaping the roster in his own image. Larsson, a year from free agency, is in a difficult spot.

Is there still room for a classic shutdown defenceman who doesn’t move the puck with offensive flair? Let’s have a look.

Larsson’s injury and Klefbom’s wandering

You may recall Larsson was hurt opening night, after chasing the Vancouver Canucks’ Jay Miller-Bo Horvat-Tanner Pearson line with partner Darnell Nurse. The duo had a terrible time exit passing, a problem that was solved for half of the pairing when Nurse checked down to partner Ethan Bear. All numbers from NaturalStatTrick are at five-on-five and between opening night and December 31.

Remember, Dave Tippett was a new coach looking to solve problems, and once this pairing started to click, he ran with it. All numbers are solid except for goal differential, with the save percentage (.881) the major factor.

Tippett’s first half of the season defensively became a lot about who could play with Klefbom on the other top pairing. He had plenty of options, tried them all, then waited for Larsson to return:

The first half was poison on the second pair for Tippett. Although he did correctly identify the best available option (Klefbom-Larsson), the duo was running bad luck (3-11 goal differential on a 51 percent shot share).

Larsson lost one slot on the depth chart during the first half (Ethan Bear moving ahead of him), but Joel Persson couldn’t take advantage of his opportunity. Tippett used the early games to make a decision on Persson, meaning Larsson entered the second half as the prime second-pairing option on the right side.

January 2020

A lot of things changed when the Oilers called Kailer Yamamoto from the Bakersfield Condors, and a lot of that had to do with coaching. Tippett moved Leon Draiaitl to centre and threw Yamamoto and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on his wings, and the Oilers started winning with greater regularity.

He also had a better idea about how he would run his top two pairings, and that consistency allowed him to run his top four defencemen heavily when required in the second half. Here are the numbers for the top pair (again at five-on-five):

The top pairing had some wobble in the second half, falling off in possession stats and expected goals. As is often the case, the regression in goal differential corrected (if only slightly) as the duo ran some good fortune in the second half with a plus-one total.

Here are the second pairings of 100 or more minutes during the last half of the season. Notice the absence of Kris Russell and Matt Benning and the presence of Caleb Jones:

The second pairing after Jan. 1 (Klefbom-Larsson) enjoyed some real success in possession and goal differential. Jones-Larsson also had good numbers, just not quite as effective as the two Swedes.

Russell and Benning had troubles. Russell had groin and concussion issues in the second half, Benning had another concussion, and Tippett was hesitant to run him heavily in the second half. Here are the numbers for each man in five-on-five time on ice for the first and second halves:

Injuries affected things, there’s no doubt about it. The second part of that discussion involves Tippett finding two pairings that excluded these men, then deploying Jones (13:33) more in the second half than Russell or Benning. Entering the deadline period, Larsson was second-pair right side and having a fine second half of the season.

Mike Green

Mike Green was acquired at the deadline and inserted into a prominent role. He used 14:11 at five-on-five in his two games with Edmonton before he was injured. Holland routinely employed older defencemen when he ran the Detroit Red Wings, and Green signed with Holland on July 1, 2015. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the two men agree on another free-agent deal during the offseason. It’s also possible Edmonton would deploy Green on the second pair with Klefbom, giving the club a veteran who can defend and is a better puck mover.

Evan Bouchard

The real enemy for Larsson, Benning and even Green is former top-10 selection Evan Bouchard. He spent the entire 2019-20 season in Bakersfield and will push for a job opening night 2020-21. That likely affects Benning and Russell more than Larsson, but the Oilers likely see a Bear-Bouchard tandem on the right side defensively for the top two pairings not far into the future.

What does it all mean?

The day Edmonton acquired Larsson, I reached out to an industry expert for a good read on the player. I was told he would be effective in shot and goal suppression and could play against top talent without getting caved. I was also told he wasn’t an especially capable outlet passer.

My contact nailed it top dead centre. During Larsson’s four seasons, his on-ice goal differential against elites is 70-64 (via Puck IQ), while Bear, Manning, Green and Bouchard all can pass the puck with more success.

Larsson is 27, plays about 21 minutes a game and can play a prominent shutdown role on a playoff team. The idea of Edmonton trading him a year before free agency is due, in part, to having enough attractive options who are less expensive and under control. That’s not a familiar place for the Oilers.

Keeping Larsson is a strong option. However, if the Oilers truly believe in Bouchard, trading Larsson makes sense. The trade would allow the club to retain Benning (an effective player on his own) and perhaps acquire a scoring winger or a No. 3 centre for Larsson.

The Edmonton Oilers have reached a point where management can contemplate dealing from strength to address weakness. That might be even rarer than making the playoffs for this franchise.

(Photo of Larsson: Jasen Vinlove / USA Today)