What Howie Roseman’s draft history might tell us about the Eagles’ draft plans

The good thing about following or covering a team with a longstanding general manager is that we have a larger sample to learn about his or her preferences. The NFL Draft is, by and large, a crapshoot. But we have 69 non-specialist draft picks over the course of Howie Roseman’s nine Eagles drafts as the final decision-maker (2010-2014, 2016-2019) to try to suss out what he values when making the franchise’s most important decisions. (They drafted kicker Alex Henery in the fourth round in 2011.) Even that is scant information. For instance, there have been three different coaching staffs over the last 10 years, each with their own schemes and degrees of influence. And 69 picks, while nice, is far from statistically significant, especially when spread across positions. We also only have information on players the team picked, not how it evaluated a larger swath of each draft class.

But you’re not here for caveats. You’re here for a position-by-position breakdown of the types of players Roseman has drafted. For the purposes of this exercise, we’re focusing on athletic profiles and general profiles of college production, with a look at which players in this class might fit the Eagles’ type.

In the larger picture, just 19 of those 69 drafted players (27.5 percent) have been underclassmen, although the pendulum has swung further in the direction of underclassmen since his return from exile in 2016. Over that time, 46 percent of Roseman’s 26 picks (12 players in total, counting Jordan Mailata) have been underclassmen. Here’s that breakdown by round of his time as decision-maker:

First round – Two underclassmen out of eight picks

Second round – Four underclassmen out of 10 picks

Third round – Two underclassmen out of seven picks

Fourth round – Two underclassmen out of 13 picks

Fifth round – Four underclassmen out of 12 picks

Sixth round – Two underclassmen out of eight picks

Seventh round – Three underclassmen out of 11 picks

OK, on to the positions …

Quarterback

We speculate about Doug Pederson’s preference for taller quarterbacks because it tracks with the quarterbacks the team has acquired since he became head coach in 2016. The Eagles’ track record of drafted quarterbacks is not extensive, but Clayton Thorson is the outlier among them with a sub-optimal college completion percentage and an unimpressive ratio of touchdowns to interceptions. I think the Eagles will take the failure of that pick to heart. If they draft a quarterback this year, I expect that player to come off the board before Round 5 and have a much better collegiate track record than Thorson.

Might be their type: Jalen Hurts, Anthony Gordon, Jake Luton, Steven Montez

Running back

As with Thorson but to a heavier degree, the interesting thing here is how the recent failure was one that bucked the trend of Roseman’s broader history. Donnel Pumphrey is the only one of the six backs drafted by Roseman who had a worrisome workload in college. The Miles Sanders selection last year corrected that mistake. Running back is one of only two positions, along with defensive tackle, at which Roseman has drafted fewer seniors than underclassmen. All three of the running backs drafted by Roseman 2.0 have run a sub-4.50 40-yard dash.

Might be their type: Cam Akers, Darrynton Evans, Antonio Gibson, Anthony McFarland Jr., Michael Warren II, Raymond Calais, Rico Dowdle

Florida State’s Cam Akers dives for a touchdown against Boston College. (Paul Rutherford / USA Today)

Wide receiver

If there’s one position where we can expect the Eagles to go against type this year, it’s wide receiver. The absence of speed on that list is glaring, with only Jordan Matthews besting a 4.5-second 40-yard dash. The proclivity for seniors (or redshirt juniors) also jumps off the screen at a position in which most of the best players enter the league as underclassmen. I’ve used this arbitrary endpoint sample before, but there have been 60 different 1,000-yard wide receivers in the NFL over the past six seasons. Of the 58 who played the position in college …

• 48 were drafted in the first three rounds
• 48 had at least one 1,000-yard season in college
• 43 played at a Big 5 school
• 35 were underclassmen

And of the 53 who ran a pre-draft 40-yard dash, 31 ran a 4.49 or better.

None of those things are necessarily predictive, but the bust rate is so high at wide receiver that it has to be worth it to increase your chances of success, however incrementally. Young, fast and productive. If a prospect isn’t at least two of those three things, move on.

Keeping mind that all of these categories are sliding scales, let’s clump those 58 wide receivers into buckets and then arrange the receivers in this draft who belong in each group.

* Did not run a 40-yard dash at the combine

Young, fast and productive (18): Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, D.J. Moore, Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Larry Fitzgerald, Alshon Jeffery, Kenny Britt, A.J. Brown, Michael Crabtree*

In this draft: Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, Isaiah Coulter, Quez Watkins

Young and productive, not especially fast (14): Robert Woods, Dez Bryant, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, Juju Smith-Schuster, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Boyd, Allen Robinson, Kelvin Benjamin, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams*

In this draft: CeeDee Lamb, Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins*, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Hodgins

Young and fast, not especially productive (2): Stefon Diggs, A.J. Green

In this draft: Henry Ruggs III, KJ Hamler, Donovan People-Jones, Lynn Bowden*, Jeff Thomas

Fast and productive, not so young (8): John Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Tyler Lockett, Emmanuel Sanders, Pierre Garcon, Vincent Jackson, Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill*

In this draft: Denzel Mims, Chase Claypool, Devin Duvernay, James Proche*

Denzel Mims in action against Texas Tech in October. (Ray Carlin / USA Today)

Just young, neither productive nor fast (1): Michael Thomas

In this draft: Quartney Davis, Quintez Cephus

Just fast, neither young nor productive (5): Mike Wallace, D.J. Chark, Steve Smith, DeVante Parker, Marvin Jones

In this draft: John Hightower, Darnell Mooney, Dezmon Patmon, Freddie Swain

Just productive, neither young nor fast (8): Kenny Golladay, Jordy Nelson, Michael Gallup, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Allen Hurns, Cooper Kupp, Anquan Boldin

In this draft: Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr., Antonio Gandy-Golden, Tyler Johnson*, Aaron Parker, Trishton Jackson

None of the above (2): Doug Baldwin*, Tyrell Williams*

In this draft: Bryan Edwards*, K.J. Hill, Aaron Fuller, Van Jefferson*, Collin Johnson*, Kalija Lipscomb, Jauan Jennings, Juwan Johnson, Joe Reed, Tyrie Cleveland, Binjimen Victor, Chris Finke

Tight end

Not much to go on here, obviously. Maybe the only lesson is that the Eagles haven’t bothered to use a late-round pick on a tight end, but that’s probably mostly a result of how well-stocked the position has been under Rosman. Clay Harbor, for what it’s worth, is the best athlete relative to his position that Roseman has ever drafted at a skill position.

Might be their type: Harrison Bryant, Devin Asiasi, Hunter Bryant, Brycen Hopkins, Josiah Deguara, Charlie Taumoepeau

Tackle

Considering he’s only drafted two tackles before the fifth round, this is probably Roseman’s best hit rate, which is even more impressive when you consider the three very different offensive line coaches who have been in Philadelphia under Roseman. While the jury’s still out on Andre Dillard, the other five have all outperformed their draft position (yes, even Mailata). Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland has said that he likes outliers among his offensive linemen, which makes sense for the five players drafted during his Eagles tenure. Lane Johnson and Dillard both tested as great athletes at the position, as did Mailata. Matt Pryor tested below the 3rd percentile as a SPARQ athlete based on his pro day numbers, while Halapoulivaati Vaitai’s 95th-percentile broad jump belied his lumbering scouting report. Mailata is the only non-senior tackle Roseman has drafted, and none have been shorter than 6-foot-5.

Might be their type: Isaiah Wilson, Prince Tega Wanogho, Jack Driscoll, Alex Taylor, Matt Peart, Yasir Durant, Trey Adams, Terence Steele

Guard/center

Let’s sweep Danny Watkins aside because that pick was a result of bad process across the board. Isaac Seumalo was technically an underclassman after his original junior season was wiped out due to injury, but he was a starter as a true freshman and four years removed from high school when he was drafted, so he was a senior in aura. The template here is good athletes with starting experience. Undersized is fine.

Might be their type: Cesar Ruiz, Matt Hennessy, Nick Harris, Shane Lemieux, Damien Lewis, Keith Ismael, Hakeem Adeniji, Danny Pinter, Kyle Murphy, Kyle Hinton, Cohl Cabral

Temple’s Matt Hennessy participates in drills at the combine. (Brian Spurlock / USA Today)

Edge rusher

Here more than anywhere else, the variety in schemes since 2010 comes into play, but what sticks out is the value proposition. If you believe this is the most important defensive position, as the Eagles do, then it makes sense for the picks to be weighted so heavily toward the top. Here’s the breakdown by position of all 69 Roseman draft picks, which paints a picture of how the organization values drafting edge rushers.

The Eagles have used a late fourth-round pick on a defensive end in each of the last two years. I expect this year they’re more likely to draft a defensive end on Day 2 than on Day 3. In Josh Sweat and Shareef Miller, they bet on traits over splashy sack numbers, though none of the three edge rushers drafted since Roseman’s return in 2016 have been seniors.

Might be their type: K’Lavon Chaisson, Terrell Lewis, Curtis Weaver, Jonathan Greenard, Julian Okwara, Alex Highsmith, Derrek Tuszka, D.J. Wonnum, Oluwole Betiku Jr., Bryce Huff

Defensive tackle

I think if you went back in time and ran into Roseman’s office in 2016 to show him the position breakdown of the four drafts to come, he would not so kindly ask you to leave. First of all, that’s a rude thing to do. At least knock first. But he would also not believe you were from the future because he’d think there’s no way the only defensive tackle he drafted in four years was a sixth-round bowling ball. Alas, that’s how things have played out, and the Javon Hargrave signing means the Eagles could very well ignore the position again. Beyond the three players at the top of the defensive tackle depth chart, they have reasonable depth in Hassan Ridgeway and Anthony Rush. It strikes me as a true “best player available only” position for the Eagles this year, unless they plan on unloading Malik Jackson. A good three-cone time is a plus.

Might be their type: Javon Kinlaw, Justin Madubuike, Jordan Elliott, Neville Gallimore, James Lynch, Rob Windsor, McTelvin Agim, Broderick Washington, John Penisini

Linebacker

All eight of the drafted linebackers of the Roseman era have been seniors with at least two years of starting experience, which definitely would make Patrick Queen an odd fit given his one year as a starter. But there’s also some selection bias because the Eagles have only drafted one linebacker earlier than the fourth round. Otherwise, they’re generally attracted to good athletes.

Might be their type: Akeem Davis-Gaither, Jordyn Brooks, Malik Harrison, Logan Wilson, Davion Taylor, Tanner Muse, Shaquille Quarterman, Mykal Walker, Shaun Bradley

Malik Harrison celebrates after his interception in the Senior Bowl. (Chuck Cook / USA Today)

Cornerback

Oddly enough, Sidney Jones is the only underclassman corner Roseman has drafted. In terms of patterns, the Eagles haven’t tended to draft players who ran overly fast 40s, but this offseason’s emphasis on adding speed is the more significant signal. Their most successful recent cornerback selection was Avonte Maddox, who tested as a very good athlete despite his size (above the 93rd percentile as a SPARQ athlete).

Might be their type: C.J. Henderson, Amik Robertson, Josiah Scott, Reggie Robinson II, Troy Pride Jr., Dane Jackson, Michael Ojemudia, Harrison Hand, Kindle Vildor, John Reid, Javaris Davis, Madre Harper

Safety

The Eagles have had this position solved since Roseman’s 2016 return, so they’ve spent only a sixth-round pick on Blake Countess in the last four years. The return of Rodney McLeod, the supposed transition for Jalen Mills and the signing of Will Parks give them flexibility not to force a pick at what is widely considered the second-toughest position to project to the NFL, after quarterback. If the distant past is an indication, the Eagles will tend toward starting experience.

Might be their type: Xavier McKinney, Grant Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr., Kenny Robinson Jr., K’Von Wallace, Josh Metellus, Julian Blackmon, Khaleke Hudson

More coverage: Eagles draft

(Top photo of Howie Roseman: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)