Bucs draft position preview: More high picks in the defensive secondary?

TAMPA, Fla. — For four years now, the Bucs have invested quite heavily in their defensive secondary.

Over the first four rounds of the last four drafts, Tampa Bay has used nine draft picks on defensive backs and nine on the rest of the team combined.

With all but one of those (2016 first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves) still on the roster, the Bucs have a talented young secondary, one that struggled badly in the first half of 2019 but took a big step forward in the second half as Tampa Bay went 5-3 in their final eight games.

So with another draft looming this week, is the Bucs’ secondary “totally fixed,” as head coach Bruce Arians said last June? When six of the first nine opponents last year threw for 300-plus yards, when Tampa Bay gave up 22 passing touchdowns with only six interceptions in those games, was he wrong or just premature in that vote of confidence?

“The growth in the secondary gives me so much hope because our front seven was so solid all year,” Arians said a day after the season ended. “The way we started playing defense in the middle of November gets me excited.”

Asked if he still needed to address the secondary in this offseason that day, Arians had two different responses:

“I think we could still look at a safety … I’m not sure we do.”

“We’re fine at corner.”

And now, as the Bucs seek a return to the playoffs with new quarterback Tom Brady, can they trust in the progress and development of those young defensive backs or do they need even more high draft picks, just in case?

At corner, Tampa Bay has a three-player combination they appear ready to stick with: 2018 second-rounder Carlton Davis and 2019 second-rounder Jamel Dean playing outside, and fellow 2019 second-rounder Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot. That was how they lined up down the stretch last season, and none of the final seven opponents were able to throw for 300 yards against the Bucs. There’s precious little depth behind those three, with 2016 fourth-rounder Ryan Smith re-signed this spring but more likely with an eye on being a special-teams leader than a contributing member of the secondary.

Safety seems more likely to get help, as 2018 fourth-rounder Jordan Whitehead has started 25 games in two years but hasn’t made a ton of splash plays. Bucs coaches were high on 2019 third-rounder Mike Edwards, but he couldn’t beat out free agent Andrew Adams for the starting job, splitting snaps instead. Adams came back on a modest one-year contract but if they’re not sold on either as a long-term starter, the Bucs could add a veteran such as Tony Jefferson, who played for Arians and Todd Bowles in Arizona and is recovering from a torn ACL suffered last fall.

There are a few injury wild cards at safety, first in 2017 second-rounder Justin Evans, who hasn’t played since December 2018 and is coming off surgeries to both feet. Arians said at the combine that his timetable to return healthy to practice had been recently bumped from April to June, and general manager Jason Licht suggested that any contribution they get from Evans would be a bonus. Another is D’Cota Dixon, an undrafted rookie from Wisconsin who impressed in training camp last year before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. It’s hard to imagine the Bucs putting much trust in either being good enough to start in 2020, or enough to change their draft priorities.

With so much already invested, with other more obvious needs that match some of the best positions in the draft, it’s unlikely the Bucs would put a first-round pick into the secondary. NBC Sports’ Peter King, writing Monday about the Bucs’ needs, wrote that they were “jonesing for a top corner,” but ultimately paired them with defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw in his mock draft.

But in the second round? LSU safety Grant Delpit, once thought of as a potential first-round match for the Bucs, could still be there when they’re on the clock at No. 45, along with other safety prospects such as Southern Illinois’ Jeremy Chinn and Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield Jr. Safety is a versatile part of Bowles’ defense, and if he isn’t impressed with the existing in-house options, it could elevate safety above other defensive depth needs like the line and outside linebacker.

What do the mocks say?

In his full seven-round mock draft, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler doesn’t have the Bucs taking a cornerback, and has them waiting until the fifth round and taking Michigan’s Josh Metellus. This would likely only add depth as a fourth or fifth safety and not make an immediate impact on the defense.

In our Bucs-only seven-round mock, we didn’t have the Bucs taking a corner, waiting until the sixth round to take Mississippi State’s Brian Cole. When we outlined potential Day 2 picks for the Bucs back in February, we mentioned Winfield as a potential second-round match.

Our best guess

We wouldn’t have expected the Bucs to use three of their top four picks last year in the secondary, but they did, so it’s hard to rule anything out. How much weight do you give comments from Arians and Licht about their confidence in the defense and the progress of the young secondary? If you believe what they say, there likely won’t be a significant pick invested in a defensive back, knowing that comes at the expense of recent high picks made by this same front office and under the same coaching staff.

So we’ll stick with projections that they don’t draft a defensive back until the third day. Given the overall youth of the secondary, adding a veteran makes more sense than spinning the wheel on another draft pick, so a player like Jefferson, once he’s able to show his progress recovering from surgery, could be a smart match as an upgrade at safety. The Bucs can get by with a modest veteran at corner after the draft, someone who adds depth, who doesn’t have the expectations of starting but could step in with limited drop-off if any of the top three corners went down with an injury.

That means the Bucs could draft a developmental prospect like Cole, late on the third day, and his impact might be limited to special teams initially with three safeties ahead of him in experience in the defensive scheme. They’ve already invested quite a bit into the position in the last four drafts, and the same general manager who made those picks should trust his coaches’ abilities to develop young talent.

(Photo of the Ravens’ Tony Jefferson: Mitchell Layton / USA Today)