Early indications have Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland looking to bring back most of his players next season. Since January, he has signed Caleb Jones, Zack Kassian, Darnell Nurse, Joakim Nygard, Josh Archibald and Gaetan Haas to extensions. Riley Sheahan, Mike Smith, Mike Green and Tyler Ennis remain in limbo, but there’s a good chance at least a couple of them stay in Edmonton another year.
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The flurry of activity might appear to be a roadblock for a younger prospect like Tyler Benson. Left wingers already signed for next season include Nygard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal and Jujhar Khaira. Andreas Athanasiou, a trade-deadline acquisition, is a restricted free agent who is likely to be signed based on the two second-round selections the Oilers surrendered in the trade with the Detroit Red Wings.
Is there room for Benson in 2020-21? Does he have the ability to force his way onto a healthy team? Did he show enough in a brief NHL audition late in the season? Let’s have a look.
AHL deployment and success
Benson scored 102 points in 115 games for the Bakersfield Condors over his first two pro seasons. He led them in points as a rookie in 2018-19 and likely would have done it again this season if not for his NHL recall. Among the Oilers’ skill-forward prospects who spent significant time in the AHL this year, only Kailer Yamamoto could be considered to have more scoring potential.
Benson struggled offensively in his second AHL season, owing to Cooper Marody’s injury issues and a lack of an adequate replacement in Bakersfield. Benson and Marody were magic in 2018-19 as AHL rookies, but Benson solo had a difficult time finding chemistry with lesser offensive centres. The change year over year impacted even-strength performance:
- Benson at even strength last season: 68 games; 13 goals, 29 assists, 42 points; .62 points per game; 59 goals for, 33 goals against
- Benson at even strength this season: 47 games; six goals, 13 assists, 19 points; .40 points per game; 27 goals for, 35 goals against
Benson played with the Condors’ best centres, but the drop in quality was obvious. The even-strength goal differential (plus-26 to minus-8) corresponds with the Condors’ downbeat (plus-60 to minus-30) in the same discipline, although his performance in both cases was better than the team average (two-way centre Brad Malone accounted for 28 goals with 40 goals against this season). He held his own on the power play:
- Benson on the power play last season: 68 games; two goals, 22 assists, 24 points; .352 points per game
- Benson on the power play this season: 47 games; three goals, 14 assists, 17 points; .361 points per game
The Condors’ power-play offence dipped this season, but only slightly. Benson, playing with skill on the man advantage, saw his point-per-game total increase by a hair.
Based on his minor-league numbers, it’s safe to say the best situation for Benson in the NHL would be playing at even strength with a centre who possesses impact talent, and time on the power play. There’s a long list of players with similar resumes; Benson will have to force his way past more established options. He may get time with Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, though it’s unlikely it’ll be on opening night in 2020-21.
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NHL recall
In his NHL debut on Feb. 6, Benson spent the game with Haas and veteran winger Alex Chiasson. At five-on-five, the trio outshot the opposition 3-1 and won the Corsi events 10-1. Even more important, the Oilers didn’t give up a goal or a strong chance.
His best game during the audition took place 10 days later, on the road against the Hurricanes. Benson had his first NHL point during the game, an assist on a deft pass to Archibald that was timed well. That’s his calling card and he proved he could do it at the highest level.
Natural Stat Trick tells us Benson and his linemates (mostly Sheahan and Archibald) did fairly well in just over an hour of five-on-five ice time. The possession metrics are close to even (a 48.5 percent shot differential) and the goal differential (two for, four against) may have been due in part to the goaltending, which had an .882 save percentage. The sample is too small but Benson survived and will receive another recall.
Speed up front
Benson’s speed gets mentioned often, he showed up late on a couple of occasions defensively during his seven NHL games.
The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis discussed the issue with Condors forward Josh Currie during the season. “He’s an unbelievable hockey player,” Currie said. “He has tremendous vision and skill. He just sees the ice a little bit quicker than most players. I think that makes him a fast offensive player.”
The Oilers have increased their overall foot speed. Holland added plenty of it at forward after arriving last spring. Archibald and Haas can wheel, plus Nygard is a bullet. In Athanasiou and Ennis, Edmonton added two more speedsters at the deadline.
Team speed has improved substantially, and a player with Benson’s pace should be easily accommodated when he’s ready. Who might he replace?
The Oilers have several forwards with average (or below) speed, but they are either veterans with multiple roles (Neal, Chiasson, Sheahan if he signs) or younger players trying to establish themselves in the NHL (Khaira, Patrick Russell). The veterans are employed on one special teams unit or another; Khaira is an outstanding penalty killer.
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Opening night or recall option?
I expect Benson will be a recall option in 2020-21, even before the team goes through the heart of summer procurement. There are openings Benson could win — Russell served as the extra forward in Edmonton most nights this season, but Benson is a better player. It’s likely the Oilers would prefer to see Benson play every night in Bakersfield than sit in the press box. I would suggest Russell’s competition for the final forward spot will fall to players like Joe Gambardella and possibly Khaira (who is in some roster trouble after an uneven season).
Benson would have to force his way into the regular lineup and that’s going to be a chore. If we assume Edmonton re-signs Athanasiou, that means the left wing depth chart (Edmonton through Bakersfield) might look like this:
- Nugent-Hopkins: 22 goals in 65 games this season.
- Neal: 19 goals in 55 games; his hot streaks were incredible.
- Athanasiou: 11 goals in 55 games for two teams.
- Nygard: three goals in 33 games; intriguing combination of speed and smarts.
- Khaira: six goals in 64 games; tremendous penalty killer but on the bubble due to many baffling decisions with the puck.
- Benson: First two pro seasons show he’s ready for a prolonged look in the NHL. When will he arrive?
- Gambardella: Older AHL winger scored 43 goals in last two seasons with Bakersfield.
- Ryan Kuffner: Intriguing acquisition from Detroit, his college numbers impressed.
- James Hamblin: AHL deal for a quality WHL winger.
- Blake Christensen: Recent AHL signing, undersized skill winger from NCAA Division I.
What does it all mean?
In early September, I published my reasonable expectations for the Oilers this season. My projections suggested Benson would receive a midseason recall (34 games, five goals, seven assists, 12 points) and begin his NHL career as a regular.
From that vantage point, it looks like I was a year ahead of schedule in my prediction, owing in part to Holland’s slow playing of minor-league talent and the emergence of players like Nygard.
Benson posted a stunning AHL rookie season in 2018-19 and followed it with a solid if unspectacular campaign. His NHL look showed there were things to work on and my bet is he gets another shot when and if this season resumes.
Benson is NHL ready. Starting him in Bakersfield next season gives him a chance to dominate the minors and allows Holland to house an extra bona fide NHL winger in the system. Oilers fans may not recognize that kind of depth as it’s been a long time.
(Photo: Curtis Comeau / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
