Darnell Nurse is having a career year.
With 10 points through 30 games, he’s just one away from matching his career high offensively, with nearly two-thirds of the season left to go. He’s also averaging nearly 22 minutes per game, another career-best. He leads all Oilers defencemen by virtually every on-ice metric: goals, Corsi, Fenwick, scoring chances; you name it, he’s got it.
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From the player’s perspective, the timing could not possibly be better. Nurse’s three-year entry-level contract comes to an end this summer, and the 22-year-old has given his representatives a very strong bargaining position for when they sit down with the Oilers to discuss an extension.
For Edmonton, Nurse’s emergence is obviously a good thing, but it does have the potential to force the team’s hand in at least two areas.
The first is financial. Connor McDavid’s extension kicks in next season, and Edmonton will need to make decisions on several expiring contracts, most notably that of Patrick Maroon. It’s not just next season that matters, either; the Oilers will have to decide between a bridge deal and a long-term extension, so Nurse’s exact role in the long-term picture will need to be determined.
That role leads to the second area where the Oilers will feel some pressure. As it stands, Edmonton has Andrej Sekera and Oscar Klefbom signed at a combined rate of just under $10 million/season for the next four years. Sekera has been more successful on the left side than the right, while both Nurse and Klefbom have little NHL experience on the right side. Can the Oilers get appropriate value out of expenditures on three quality left-shot defencemen, and if not then which gets moved to address a different area of weakness?
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The fun part in all this is seeing a good prospect really come into his own.
Nurse has always been a guy who looked like an NHLer. He is 6-foot-4 and plays with the kind of edge that everybody in hockey wants to see from a player with that size. What separates him from most big guys is that he’s also a tremendous skater. That’s not always necessary for a big, strong, mean defencemen: when they’re good at keeping the play in front of them that long reach can be enough to make them effective in transition even if their boots are a little heavy. But combine that reach and that strength with the ability to maintain position against even speedy forwards and recover from mistakes and brother you’ve got a player.
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Offensive ceiling has always been a bit of a question mark, though not the main one. Nurse wasn’t a big scorer in the OHL. He posted respectable totals in his draft year and improved every year in a well-regarded Sault Ste. Marie program but never quite reached the same offensive heights as fellow Greyhounds rearguards Ryan Sproul and Colin Miller.
The big question mark with any guy that big and that fast is whether he’s going to have the processor to make it all work. There’s a joke that every big prospect defenceman inevitably gets compared to Chris Pronger but obviously almost none of them actually turn into that kind of player. Pronger was more than big and fast and mean. He also owned incredible hockey sense, underrated offensive ability and was a puck possession player before people really talked about puck possession players.
In the summer of 2015, when Peter Chiarelli arrived in Edmonton and took the lay of the land, Nurse was a player he was obviously excited about. Publicly, the new GM repeatedly praised Nurse’s strength, skating, ability to defend and willingness to be coached. However, he also saw a player who was spending too much time up ice, who would “skate into a funnel” with the puck and who had trouble with a lot of the subtle nuances of playing defence in the majors.
“Darnell is so strong, he defends so well,” Chiarelli told TSN in September in a comment which mirrored many he made during this span. “He’s an energetic player, we have to teach him you don’t have to do six things, if you do three of those things very well, you can do the other three later and be good at them, so let’s take steps. He’s got some stuff to learn but there’s a lot to like there.”
That’s not a particularly uncommon or damning viewpoint for any young defencemen: it’s a complicated position and especially at hockey’s highest level. But it’s fascinating to compare that view two years ago with the one coach Todd McLellan offered on November 1 of this year.
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“He’s probably been our best as far as knowing when to go and when not to, when to pinch and when not to,” McLellan said. “There’s not very many scoring chances he’s showing up in and you’re going ‘why are you going now?’ or ‘why didn’t you go?’ We’ll leave him alone. We’re not going to go talk to him and say, ‘hey, be careful’ or ‘be safe.’ He’s relied on his instincts and he’s one of the most decisive defenceman we’ve had right now. The last thing we’re going to do is go and fiddle around between his ears.”
That’s not a coach talking about how great Nurse’s size or speed or potential is. That’s a coach specifically praising Nurse for the way he thinks the game, for finding that difficult balance between taking risks and playing it safe to a fault. It’s not the kind of thing one heard about Nurse two years ago. He’s grown as a player and the results back it up.
When Nurse is on the ice without Connor McDavid this year, the Oilers collect 56 percent of the Corsis, 57 percent of the Fenwicks and 57 percent of the goals. Those are staggering numbers, and they only climb when he gets to play with Edmonton’s franchise player. He’s benefited from playing with Adam Larsson, but he’s also done splendid work with Kris Russell and Eric Gryba.
None of this is to suggest that he’s perfect, or that he’s on-track to turn into Pronger (a ridiculous comparison for basically anyone). There’s room to question specific aspects of his game, notably in the offensive zone. It’s also more than fair to point out that we’re 30 games into the year and there are still 50 to go in the season, or to acknowledge that defensive development can be an up-and-down process (witness Klefbom’s 2017-18).
But it’s impossible to look at Nurse’s work so far and not be impressed. By eye or by number, he’s well on his way to a breakthrough season. His athletic ability has never been in doubt, and increasingly he’s living up to the potential it has always suggested.
That emergence is going to have a ripple effect on the roster.
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In theory, there’s a wide range of contract outcomes for any NHL player, but for defencemen in Nurse’s position there are only two common ones: a two-year bridge deal or a larger contract for six-plus seasons.
The bridge deal has a few things to recommend it, but we’ll start with the big risk.
Bridge contracts favour the player when he performs in such a way as to command a larger payday down the road, as P.K. Subban famously did with the Canadiens. Teams limit their risk by keeping the bridge to two years, which means the player still has two years to serve before he’s eligible for free agency (of the seven-year total, three were burned on the entry level deal and the latter two on the bridge), but it’s not that long of a time and arbitration and the threat of offer sheet gives the player more leverage.
The flip side is that the bridge favours the team if the player underperforms, which is why it’s typically used in situations where the team isn’t totally sold on the guy they’re signing. It’s also favoured by teams with serious cap problems and/or in contention for a Cup since it affords those clubs extra room against the upper limit for a couple of years.
When we look at 22-23 year-old defencemen with similar numbers to Nurse this season who have signed bridge deals in the last couple of years, we find a few names, but only two that really stand out:
The first name on that list is Ryan Murray, who was part of an ill-fated cluster at the top end of the 2012 draft. He went one spot behind first overall selection Nail Yakupov, now on his third NHL home, and two ahead of recent waiver bait Griffin Reinhart. The other member of the opening quartet, Alex Galchenyuk, has had a tough time for a while now in Montreal.
The Blue Jackets took Murray, and in his third year with the team it kind of looked like he had broken out. He played all 82 games after appearing in just 78 over the previous two years, and he hit career-highs in points (25) and average ice-time (22:51). Still, Columbus had reason to be suspicious, based on previous years, a poor overall team performance and some very medium-ish underlying numbers.
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So far, the Blue Jackets’ caution looks warranted. Murray has failed to replicate those career-best numbers, and nothing he has done to-date warrants a big payday.
The other guy who is somewhat comparable to Nurse is Jacob Trouba. He’s big, mean and a great skater; like Nurse he was a top-10 selection but just one draft earlier.
(Personal digression: It’s always been weird to me that Trouba-for-Nurse didn’t get more traction as a trade possibility in seasons past. The players aren’t identical but have a lot of similarities in both playing style and age. The key difference is that Trouba is a righty on a team which already has Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers, while Nurse is a member of Edmonton’s leftorium. Naturally these things are a lot easier on paper than in reality.)
The Jets had trouble signing Trouba, whose camp made it clear he wanted to be a top-four defenceman playing his strong side, rather than converting to the left to play on a pairing with the Jets’ other righties. The two-year deal was the compromise that got him playing again.
Given what those guys signed for, a two-year deal at around $3 million annually would be market value for Nurse on a bridge contract. However, the far more likely outcome for a defender with Nurse’s numbers is a long-term extension, as we see when we look at recent contracts for guys at around the same age, usage and scoring level:
We don’t have to look far for comparables, given that Nurse’s teammates Larsson and Klefbom had similar profiles when they signed their long-term extensions. Both of those deals are a little on the cheap side compared to the average, with the wonderful Hampus Lindholm on the pricier end of the scale.
Anyway, the numbers aren’t hard here. On his current pace, Nurse is a dead ringer for the average, which suggests a six-to-seven year extension at a $4.6-ish million annually.
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As a general rule, I like these deals for the teams that sign them. As long as the team is right on their defenceman, they get a quality top-four guy locked up at reasonable money for a long period of time. Even if Nurse falters and ends up a No. 4 for a long period of time, it’s not much of an overpayment. On the other hand, if he stays on the course he’s plotted this season, this is a real bargain.
Most teams agree, which is why we see these deals so frequently. I expect it’s the route the Oilers both should and will take with Nurse.
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If that guess is right, the Oilers are about to have five defencemen earning between $4.0 and $5.5 million annually. Sekera, Klefbom and Nurse are all left-shots who play on their strong side. Larsson is the lone righty and plays his strong side. Russell has shown an ability to switch from the left side to the right, and will almost certainly end up playing on his off-side out of necessity.
From a financial perspective, it isn’t entirely unfeasible, because Edmonton doesn’t have one really expensive blueliner. Pittsburgh is spending more money on its top five defenders this year, and like the Oilers the Pens have a couple of really pricey forwards. Still, that’s the exception rather than the rule, and spending that much money on the back end means sacrificing elsewhere.
It’s probably right to look at that group and think that at some point the Oilers will want to move a left-shot defenceman out, both to balance the money and in the name of addressing one of their other problem areas.
The typical Edmonton solution to this would be to deal Klefbom. Like most NHL teams, the Oilers tend to move guys at low ebbs in their career, rather than waiting for a better return later on. It might even be the right move, depending on what his value on the market is; if there’s a team out there willing to pay full price for the guy, it’s a trade that could make sense. There are precious few untradeable players in hockey today.
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The outside-the-box idea would be to deal Nurse. His value is undoubtedly high right now, and as a general rule it’s better to trade a player when he’s at a peak rather than a valley in his game. It’s hard to imagine such a deal, though. Nurse fits the kind of team Chiarelli wants to build to a tee, he’s strong in some areas the Oilers are weak, and given his age we probably haven’t seen the best of him yet.
The best solution might actually be dealing Sekera, since that would leave Edmonton with two young guys on modest deals to anchor the defence for years to come. The problems with this are myriad. Trade value is one. Another is that Edmonton hasn’t fared very well without their veteran safety net on the blue line this season; Nurse has excelled while Klefbom has struggled, and given their age and experience levels it’s not crazy to expect a few more ups and downs from both players before they settle into a steady mid-career keel. Finally, Sekera has a full no-move clause through 2019, which theoretically means he could block any deal made before that point.
The approach that I like is stalling.
Stalling solves a bunch of problems. It gives Nurse and Klefbom time to mature. It allows the Oilers to wait and pick their spot on the trade front, letting the deal come to them rather than going out to get it. Time is also going to open up options on the contracts of both Sekera and Russell. It even works nicely with Edmonton’s prospect pipeline, since by summer 2019 we’d expect to see their latest crop of rookie AHL defencemen pushing for NHL employment.
The 2015-16 St. Louis Blues offer an interesting template for the Oilers if they’re interested in being patient. That team had three great defencemen who all played the same side of the ice; it was the last season where the right-shot trio of Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Colton Parayko played together all year. Again echoing the current Oilers, the Blues also had two guys on the other side they wanted to make use of: Jay Bouwmeester and Carl Gunnarsson.
How did they find enough minutes to get value out of all of those players?
It’s really not too hard to translate this setup to Edmonton’s situation. Ideally, only two defencemen would get real power play minutes, unlike the three in St. Louis this year, given that power plays with four forwards tend to have better results. That actually works really well for the Oilers’ personnel:
- Nurse could play the role of Pietrangelo, minus the power play work, taking the lead role at even-strength and on the penalty kill. This would see him partnered with Larsson, our Oilers analogue for Bouwmeester. Both guys would probably end up in the 22-minute range on a nightly basis.
- In the roles of Shattenkirk and Parayko, the Oilers would have Klefbom and Sekera, with each playing about 17 minutes per game at even-strength and having a role on both special teams. The minutes could be evened out a little, particularly since these two would be the guys taking the lead on the power play. Each could conceivably be around the 20-minute mark.
- That would leave Russell in the Gunnarsson role, playing 15 minutes nightly at even-strength and getting another two on the penalty kill. He’d also be around for mop-up work on the power play.
That’s not a long-term solution, but it could certainly work in the short-term, both through the remainder of this season and into 2018-19 as well if a favourable trade situation didn’t materialize before then.
Critically, a patient approach allows the Oilers to be in the driver’s seat on any trade. If we look back at the endlessly polarizing Larsson deal, it was Edmonton that was in desperate need of a righty defender and New Jersey that was able to sit back a bit and wait until someone blew them away with a trade proposal (Taylor Hall). Showing a willingness to hang on to their defenders indefinitely would put the Oilers in the position to sit back and wait for someone in desperate need of help on the blue line to wow them with an offer.
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Nurse’s breakthrough is an opportunity. For the player, it’s a chance to secure long-term top-four employment and financial security. For the team, an abundance of quality players at one position opens up all kinds of possibilities to address problem areas elsewhere. The trick is not to botch the execution.
(Top photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)